A Prospect to Watch: Joseph Dunigan

I wouldn't worry too much if you haven't heard of Joseph Dunigan. I'm not sure many people have, but he's starting to get some attention now in his third year of pro-ball. The Mariners drafted Dunigan in the fifth-round of the 2007 Draft, and he posted mediocre at best numbers in his first two stints in the minors, between SS and A Ball. In his 2007 debut, he posted a .619 OPS, a 7% BB rate, a 30% K rate, an IsoP below 1 and a Line Drive Percentage below 10%. In 2008 in A Ball, he raised his OPS to a still a terrible .718 OPS with a 6% BB Rate and a 30% K Rate. He raised his LD% to a still pretty poor 11%, but he did raise his IsoP to .189, largely because of a pretty terrible batting average. He homered 14 times and stole 27 bases, showing some of the tools that caused the Mariners to draft him.

Dunigan was pretty raw coming out of college, and didn't have a ton of great numbers, but he was athletic and had a ton of talent. The power hadn't really been demonstrated yet, but there was plenty of speed and he had a quality make-up by most reports.

It appears that things have finally clicked for Dunigan, and he has started to assemble some of the tools that he has in his pretty sizable toolbox. As of today, Dunigan is hitting .351/.424/.692 with 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He has raised his walk percentage to over 10% and cut his strikeout percentage to a little under 21%. He is sporting a .344 IsoP. He plays in a significant hitter's park at Hi-A, so I believe his numbers are at least partially inflated, but he is hitting .277/.365/.506 on the road this season, as well, so it's certainly not all because of the home park, though 12 of his 16 homers have come at home.

Other causes for concern with Dunigan are an unsustainable .394 BABIP and a 10% LD%. One would think that he would be roping the ball everywhere, and it doesn't appear he's doing that. What does appear to be happening is that he is hitting a lot of balls in the air and they are carrying out of the park. His numbers are more regulated on the road, with a .338 BABIP and an 11% LD% (which is still low).

He's obviously not a finished product, and there are certainly reasons for pause, but it is clear that Dunigan is getting a better grasp on his tools and could turn into a monster if he can improve on his hard contact as the season moves on. For the month of June, his walk rate has spiked to 17% and his LD% to 13%, which is a good sign. He's not Mike Stanton (he's much older), but I think he may have a similar coming out party as the year progresses, and think he's interesting to watch either way. I, for one, think the breakout may be real.

Top 5 Targets for Red Sox in upcoming draft

Traditionally over the past few years, the Red Sox have targeted extremely athletic college prospects, signability sliders or highschoolers in the first round of the draft, with names like Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Jacoby Ellsbury and Casey Kelly coming to mind. I expect this year to be no exception. With that said, here are three (or 7) players I think the Sox will consider at 28 in the draft:

1. Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, GA -- I will preface this ranking with the fact that I think Tate has a less than 1% chance of being on the board here. He could go as high as #3 to the Padres, though word is they are moving toward Mike Minor or Aaron Crow. After that, there have been a lot of rumors about the A's looking at Tate, but since Tate is not a bonafide 5-tool stud like we've seen in past top HS selections (I should say, he's not exactly an Upton), and considering how much the A's poured into a now injured Michel Ynoa, I'm not so sure they take him. 

Anyhow, if he falls, he's clearly the choice at 28. He possesses all five tools, but there are questions about how much he will hit, considering just how raw he is, and how committed he will be to signing. There are also rumors that he's looking at a 6+M bonus to sign. 

2. Shelby Miller, P, Brownwood HS, TX -- Miller is largely regarded to be in the "second-tier" of a pretty impressive prep class, behind the group of Zach Wheeler, Tyler Matzek and Jacob Turner. He really is merely a power pitcher right now in the vein of Brett Marshall, taken last year by the Yankees, but he's got more upside than Marshall if he can develop an off-speed pitch. Roger Clemens has at least been floated as a comparison, if Miller can reach his upside. Bonus demands will push him down, but perhaps not to 28.

3. Tanner Scheppers, INDEPENDENT -- Scheppers was absolutely dominant at Fresno State, but there are huge questions about the durability of his shoulder. Still, there are few pitchers this close to the majors with Scheppers level of stuff and ability, and the Red Sox can afford to take a gamble on him if he falls this far. Of course, if he does fall, it will be because of injury concerns. I'll note that there is a similar chance with Kyle Gibson, MIZZOU, who was just diagnosed with a stress fracture in his arm. If he falls to 28, the Red Sox could take a shot on him, let him sit for the season and see what they have in 2010. 

I think one of these three/four are due for a major free-fall, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox were looking at one of them at 28. If that doesn't happen, I expect them to decide between Chad James, Everett Williams, Matt Purke and Jared Mitchell.