One name that often goes forgotten in that list of early prep picks is OF Cody Johnson, who was a first round pick in 2006, and was widely regarded as more of a supplemental or second-round talent because of his rawness. What got Johnson selected was his plus raw power, and that continues to keep him afloat on the prospect radar, and has me intrigued by his upside as time goes on.
Johnson opened up 2006 in the Gulf Coast League, walking a respectable 9.8% and fanning a catastrophic 38.9% of his plate appearances. He hit just .184 and posted an IsoP of just .097, but again, he was just 18 and it was just 127 PA. In 2007, he again was in rookie ball, but this time it was with Danville, and he showed marked improvement. In 270 PA, he cut his K rate down to a still very high 26.7%, and he also raised his average to .304, helped largely by putting more balls in play and getting fortunate (.370 BABIP) on those balls in play. He raised his IsoP all the way to .325, which is extremely impressive considering he raised his LD% only one percentage point. He was also starting to get old for Rookie Ball by the end of it, as he was 19, but it was clear there was reason for excitement based on the 1.004 OPS and the 17 HR in half of a season.
2008 was a very controversial year for Johnson, as prospects began to sour on him based on his inability to make contact as a 20 year-old in A Ball. Indeed, his K% ballooned to 34.7% and his BB rate dropped 2 percentage points to 7.6%. He hit 26 homers in 511 PA, but he struckout 177 times and he hit just .252 despite a .346 BABIP, largely because he was not putting enough balls in play to take advantage of his massive power. On the bright side, he did boost his LD% from 18% to 20%, and his IsoP was a still strong though less impressive .225. For all the credit that Mike Stanton was getting as a draft pick from the Marlins, it seems to me that Johnson was unfairly penalized for having a fairly similar line to Stanton's, though Stanton did hit for a far higher average. I ultimately do not think there 2008 campaigns were THAT different, though it is easy to argue that Stanton's across the board tools (speed and defense, namely) help to separate him from Johnson.
I think it's important to remember that Johnson was 19 for most of his experience in A Ball, and will be 20 for most of his experience in Hi-A, as he doesn't turn 21 until late August. He's opened up with 7 homers in 71 AB's, while also fanning a concerning 37% of the time. On an exciting note, though, Johnson's BB rate has come back to form, walking 12.3% of the time in this small 2009 sample size, and he has maintained his 20% LD%. He is still just hitting .254, but that power is carrying him right now.
Johnson is ultimately a fairly interesting case. Depending on who you talk to, some people think that his ability to make contact is never going to be good enough to utilize his massive power at higher levels. It seems fairly clear that his 2007 season in rookie ball can be chalked up to becoming very familiar with a level that he was starting to be older than, and with some pretty good luck in terms of BABIP. At the same time, his power is very clearly for real, and he has started to demonstrate better patience at the plate. I don't know if the increased patience is causing him to take more called third strikes or not, but he is at least making an effort to better understand the strike zone. My suspicion is that he struggles with off-speed stuff, but at his age, I believe that Johnson has the time to understand what he is looking for and learn how to put more balls in play. He is young enough where he could repeat Hi-A and still be considered a prospect, and with a guy with his power, he'll get every chance to be successful.
He's not on Jason Heyward or Mike Stanton's level, obviously (and I don't mean to claim Heyward and Stanton are similar players, I just mentioned them in this post), but Johnson is not a guy you should sleep on, and should be worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
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