Jeff Francoeur

Jeff Francoeur is the poster-child for why you generally need plate-discipline to have long-term success in the big leagues. Unfortunately for him, he is also the poster-child for how quickly people can give up on someone with legitimate talent.

To start, Francoeur did not have a particularly large amount of developmental time in the minors before being rushed to the majors during the midst of a playoff run to help the Braves. He began his first full season (2003) in A Ball, and posted an impressive .769 OPS as a 19 year old. More impressive than the OPS is the fact that he struckout just 67 times in 567 PA, though he did walk just 34 times, as well. In 2004, the Braves bumped him to Hi-A, and he responded by posting an equally solid .788 OPS between Hi-A and AA, where he finished the season. Unfortunately, his peripherals worsened, fanning 82 times in 467 PA while walking just 22 times. He continued improving slightly, this time posting an .808 OPS in 367 PA in 2005, again at AA, before inexplicably being called up to the big leagues.

So, to recap, while Francoeur showed plenty of talent, the numbers of levels he mastered in the minor leagues matches the number of major league baseball games I've played in during my career. In fact, the early success Francoeur had in his big league debut in 2005 likely hurt his development more than it helped it, as he was not allowed to return to the minors to master AA or even AAA before becoming a full time outfielder. Even one more season in the minors could have helped his ability to identify pitches.

After posting an absurd 126 OPS+ as a 21-year-old in his debut, Francoeur posted just a .293 OBP in 2006, though he still slugged .449. There were reasons to expect the drop to the .293 OBP, from .334 in his debut. For one, he had a BABIP of .341, which while not generally high, is out of line with both his career numbers and for the numbers of someone who struckout in more than 20% of his plate appearances. He actually cut both his K's and his BB's in his first full season, and he was pretty unlucky, posting just a .286 BABIP. While he was not putting a ton of balls in play with a K% over 19%, he should have had a higher BABIP than that.

He impressively rebounded in 2007, posting a .788 OPS, largely as a result of walking 42 times, an improvement on the 23 walks he had in 2006. While he slugged just 19 home runs, a downgrade on the 29 he slugged in 2006, he raised his double total from 24 to 40 over that same span. He had the same rate, but was demonstrating quality defense, as he won a gold glove.

Everyone is familiar with his disastrous 2008, of course, as he posted a 72 OPS+ and walked three less times than he did in 2007. What is lost in the equation is that he struckout 18 fewer times and posted just a .277 BABIP. For how often Francoeur was putting the ball into play, an improved BABIP would mean a serious improvement of his line. In addition, he had similar GB% and LD% to his previous two full major league seasons.

Ultimately, Francoeur is a limited but intriguing player, and there are very strong indications that his 2009 line will be eerily similar to his 2007 performance, which makes him a useful player, at least in a platoon role, as his splits tend to favor facing LHP. His defense, at least currently, is at least average, and potentially above average. He has also cut his K's to start the season, fanning just 6 times to date over 72 PA, and he is hitting .327, despite just a .297 BABIP. Those numbers should actually be better than they currently are. Still, his OPS is barely above .700 v RHP, so he appears to be doing most of his damage against lefties.