Player Spotlight: Carlos Santana

So you must be thinking to yourself, why is Carlos Santana #17 on my list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, considering he was really just 1/2 the trade that sent world-beater Casey Blake to the Dodgers at the deadline? Well, for one, Santana plays a premium position. As you've seen with my aggressive rankings of players like Willin Rosario and Buster Posey, I don't think that it will take much for Santana to be at least average, and probably better, in the bigs. There was some question about whether he could repeat his performance of last season, and more question about whether he's legitimately a catcher, but I believe in him, and I'll tell you why below.

Santana was in the line of the many conversion projects that the Dodgers like to undertake, and played just 3 games at catcher over his first two years in the Dodgers system. Over those two years, he split time between rookie ball and Hi-A, oddly enough, and showed an advanced approach at the plate, walking and striking out 69 times each over 488 plate appearances. He showed enough power to stay at a middle infield position, but wasn't much of a corner player based on his level of production. He was mighty old for rookie ball, too. 

He spent 2007 learning how to catch, and his offense took a major hit as a result. He spent 2007 in A Ball and he combined to post just a .688 OPS, though he was hurt miserably by a .243 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which is supremely low for anyone, particularly a guy who is not of lead feet. There still wasn't a ton of power, but he was still raw and learning a new position, as catchers generally come along slowly. If I wrote about prospects then, I would have predicted a return to form in 2008.

He split 2008 between the Dodgers and Indians farm systems, and spent the entire time at Hi-A, slighting 8 AB's at AA to end the season. He busted out offensively, posting a .999 OPS with 21 HRs, and 85 BB to 89 K. He stole 10 bases and threw out 27% of the baserunners, which, while not great, is certainly passable. There was no guarantee that the power would return again in 2009, but Santana was a pretty sure bet to demonstrate excellent contact skills and a strong ability to take a walk, which is enough in itself to make it as a catcher in the big leagues. How he was thrown into a deal for a free-agent to be Casey Blake is beyond me.

He's opened 2009 by posting a .909 OPS in 109 plate appearances at AAA. He's got a .267/.404/.535 line so far, which is excellent when you consider that his Average on Balls in Play is a below-average .263. One would expect his batting average to normalize closer to .285, which would raise his numbers even further. He is walking nearly 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in less than 14% of them. He has posted career highs in Isolated Power and in Line Drive Percentage, which our both good signs. I just can't find something I don't like, as it looks like he's developing into a monster, elite top prospect. There is plenty of justification to move him up further on my list, and upon review I just might.

If you're interested in an analysis of Santana's swing, take a look at Baseball Intellect.

Top 100 Prospects after 1 Month

I'm aware this exercise is absurd, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that anyone currently in the majors is going to exceed their rookie limitations (Brett Cecil, Travis Snider, Rick Porcello, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Matt LaPorta, Derek Holland, Dexter Fowler, etc.)

1. C Matt Wieters

2. LHP David Price

3. OF Jason Heyward

4. P Madison Bumgarner

5. OF Michael Stanton

6. 1B Justin Smoak

7. C Buster Posey

8. RHP Tommy Hanson

9. RHP Chris Tillman

10. 1B Logan Morrison

11. SS Mike Moustakas

12. LHP Brian Matusz

13. 3B Pedro Alvarez

14. LHP Jarrod Parker

15. 3B Brett Wallace

16. SS Gordon Beckham

17. CA Carlos Santana

18. RHP Neftali Feliz

19. SS Tim Beckham

20. 1B Lars Anderson

21. RHP Michael Bowden

22. OF Andrew McCutchen

23. 3B Josh Vitters

24. RHP Jhoulys Chacin

25. CF Ben Revere

26. 1B Eric Hosmer

27. RHP Carlos Carrasco

28. CF Desmond Jennings

29. P Trevor Reckling

30. P Hector Rondon

31. DEF? Mat Gamel

32. 1B Angel Villalona

33. DH/C Jesus Montero

34. 1B Yonder Alonso

35. LF Andrew Lambo

36. CF Michael Taylor

37. RHP Ethan Martin

38. LF Daryl Jones

39. CA Tyler Flowers

40. 2B/1B/CA/OF Brett Lawrie

41. RHP Wade Davis

42. CF Aaron Hicks

43. RHP Jake Arrieta

44. RHP Tim Alderson

45. LHP Aaron Poreda

46. RHP Phillippe Aumont

47. 1B/OF Kyle Blanks

48. OF Michael Saunders

49. OF Josh Reddick

50. OF Michael Burgess

51. SS Reid Brignac

52. SS Adrian Cardenas

53. RHP Jordan Walden

54. RHP Cody Scarpetta

55. RHP Mat Latos

56. 3B Matt Dominguez

57. OF Fernando Martinez

58. CF Greg Halman

59. CF Austin Jackson

60. 1B Fred Freeman

61. DH Chris Carter

62. SS Brandon Crawford

63. 2B Chris Coghlan

64. LHP Christian Friedrich

65. OF Gerardo Parra

66. RHP Daniel Bard

67. RHP Ross Detwiler

68. RHP Kyle Drabek

69. C Jason Castro

70. RHP Kris Medlen

71. SS Alclides Escobar

72. C J.P. Arencibia

73. C/1B Max Ramirez

74. RHP Anthony Swarzak

75. C Adam Moore

76. Supergod Michel Ynoa

77. 3B James Darnell

78. SS Wilmer Flores

79. LHP Jeff Locke

80. LHP Casey Crosby

81. CF Ryan Kalish

82. LHP David Huff

83. CF Gorkys Hernandez

84. C Angel Salome

85. OF Dominic Brown

86. RHP Vin Mazzaro

87. 1B Anthony Rizzo

88. OF Aaron Cunningham

89. OF Nick Weglarz

90. RHP Brandon Erbe

91. OF Jose Tabata

92. C Willin Rosario

93. RHP Jeremy Jeffress

94. OF Jaff Decker

95. RHP Junichi Tazawa

96. LHP Cole Rohrbough

97. 2B Bradley Emaus

98. RHP Wilfredo Boscan

99. 1B David Cooper

100. RHP Chris Carpenter

Very tough near misses, and there are some definite problems with this list, but I tried not to over-react too much to 1 month of play. Chris Carpenter should not be in the top 100 right now, but I'm doing it so I look like a genius if he's there at the end. I'll talk about the list more tomorrow.

Chris Carpenter

No, not that Chris Carpenter. I'm talking about Chicago Cubs Third-Round Pick Chris Carpenter, a right-hander out of Kent State. In a 2008 draft that I would consider relatively weak in terms of the available power college arms (Shooter Hunt and his inability to throw a strike probably ranked tops, as I wouldn't consider Brian Matusz or Christian Friedrich in that vein), Carpenter stood out as an intriguing arm with a past example of success as a starter. Sure, you see conversion projects like Andrew Cashner (also taken by the Cubs), but there was little evidence at draft time to suggest he would be able to handle the conversion. 

A bit about Carpenter: He has had MAJOR injury concerns, and will turn 24 the day after Christmas in 2009. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005, and has dealt with other injury concerns that limited his experience in college. Indeed, because of those injuries, he was jut a junior coming out of Kent State, despite the age. He has two plus power offerings: a fastball that sits anywhere between 92-96 MPH, and a slider that has strong break and can be a second out pitch for him. His secondary stuff is pretty raw right now, but considering how little time he has had to develop it (he missed time in 2004 with surgery on his knee, wasn't healthy from the TJ until the 2007 season) I'm willing to wait to see if it will come. Some reports suggest the curve and changeup are starting to arrive, and it's clear that the Cubs think it will come.

In terms of 2009 performance, there are a lot of encouraging signs. Carpenter has not allowed an earned run in his last 17 innings, and has allowed just 12 baserunners (8 by the free pass) and fanned 17 in the process. He has kept the ball on the ground at a 54% rate, and he is striking out 27.8% of the batters he has faced, an excellent percentage. His ERA is is just 1.73, though there is some concern about his 3.59 Fielding Independent Pitching and a .172 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which both suggest he has been more than a bit lucky. I would expect more hits on balls in play, but considering the lack of contact on the season (29 strikeouts in 25 innings), hitters may be making pretty poor contact. You could also argue that he has too much experience for the level (he's facing players between 18 and 21, and he's 23) but I would argue his rawness more than makes up for it.

I would expect Carpenter to continue to miss bats as he moves up, though he'll have to refine his control, as he is still walking 13.8% of the batters he has faced. It's fine when he misses as many bats as he does, but when the batting average on balls in play normalizes, he'll need to cut back on those baserunners to keep those numbers steady. Still, in a 2008 draft with little in terms of dominant pitching talent, Carpenter stands a chance to be the impact guy from this draft from a pitching perspective (though his floor is pretty low as a starter). Even if his secondary offerings flame out, I think his two power pitches could work well in the back of the pen, too. Definitely keep an eye on him.