Chris Carpenter

No, not that Chris Carpenter. I'm talking about Chicago Cubs Third-Round Pick Chris Carpenter, a right-hander out of Kent State. In a 2008 draft that I would consider relatively weak in terms of the available power college arms (Shooter Hunt and his inability to throw a strike probably ranked tops, as I wouldn't consider Brian Matusz or Christian Friedrich in that vein), Carpenter stood out as an intriguing arm with a past example of success as a starter. Sure, you see conversion projects like Andrew Cashner (also taken by the Cubs), but there was little evidence at draft time to suggest he would be able to handle the conversion. 

A bit about Carpenter: He has had MAJOR injury concerns, and will turn 24 the day after Christmas in 2009. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005, and has dealt with other injury concerns that limited his experience in college. Indeed, because of those injuries, he was jut a junior coming out of Kent State, despite the age. He has two plus power offerings: a fastball that sits anywhere between 92-96 MPH, and a slider that has strong break and can be a second out pitch for him. His secondary stuff is pretty raw right now, but considering how little time he has had to develop it (he missed time in 2004 with surgery on his knee, wasn't healthy from the TJ until the 2007 season) I'm willing to wait to see if it will come. Some reports suggest the curve and changeup are starting to arrive, and it's clear that the Cubs think it will come.

In terms of 2009 performance, there are a lot of encouraging signs. Carpenter has not allowed an earned run in his last 17 innings, and has allowed just 12 baserunners (8 by the free pass) and fanned 17 in the process. He has kept the ball on the ground at a 54% rate, and he is striking out 27.8% of the batters he has faced, an excellent percentage. His ERA is is just 1.73, though there is some concern about his 3.59 Fielding Independent Pitching and a .172 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which both suggest he has been more than a bit lucky. I would expect more hits on balls in play, but considering the lack of contact on the season (29 strikeouts in 25 innings), hitters may be making pretty poor contact. You could also argue that he has too much experience for the level (he's facing players between 18 and 21, and he's 23) but I would argue his rawness more than makes up for it.

I would expect Carpenter to continue to miss bats as he moves up, though he'll have to refine his control, as he is still walking 13.8% of the batters he has faced. It's fine when he misses as many bats as he does, but when the batting average on balls in play normalizes, he'll need to cut back on those baserunners to keep those numbers steady. Still, in a 2008 draft with little in terms of dominant pitching talent, Carpenter stands a chance to be the impact guy from this draft from a pitching perspective (though his floor is pretty low as a starter). Even if his secondary offerings flame out, I think his two power pitches could work well in the back of the pen, too. Definitely keep an eye on him.