Player Spotlight: Carlos Santana

So you must be thinking to yourself, why is Carlos Santana #17 on my list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, considering he was really just 1/2 the trade that sent world-beater Casey Blake to the Dodgers at the deadline? Well, for one, Santana plays a premium position. As you've seen with my aggressive rankings of players like Willin Rosario and Buster Posey, I don't think that it will take much for Santana to be at least average, and probably better, in the bigs. There was some question about whether he could repeat his performance of last season, and more question about whether he's legitimately a catcher, but I believe in him, and I'll tell you why below.

Santana was in the line of the many conversion projects that the Dodgers like to undertake, and played just 3 games at catcher over his first two years in the Dodgers system. Over those two years, he split time between rookie ball and Hi-A, oddly enough, and showed an advanced approach at the plate, walking and striking out 69 times each over 488 plate appearances. He showed enough power to stay at a middle infield position, but wasn't much of a corner player based on his level of production. He was mighty old for rookie ball, too. 

He spent 2007 learning how to catch, and his offense took a major hit as a result. He spent 2007 in A Ball and he combined to post just a .688 OPS, though he was hurt miserably by a .243 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which is supremely low for anyone, particularly a guy who is not of lead feet. There still wasn't a ton of power, but he was still raw and learning a new position, as catchers generally come along slowly. If I wrote about prospects then, I would have predicted a return to form in 2008.

He split 2008 between the Dodgers and Indians farm systems, and spent the entire time at Hi-A, slighting 8 AB's at AA to end the season. He busted out offensively, posting a .999 OPS with 21 HRs, and 85 BB to 89 K. He stole 10 bases and threw out 27% of the baserunners, which, while not great, is certainly passable. There was no guarantee that the power would return again in 2009, but Santana was a pretty sure bet to demonstrate excellent contact skills and a strong ability to take a walk, which is enough in itself to make it as a catcher in the big leagues. How he was thrown into a deal for a free-agent to be Casey Blake is beyond me.

He's opened 2009 by posting a .909 OPS in 109 plate appearances at AAA. He's got a .267/.404/.535 line so far, which is excellent when you consider that his Average on Balls in Play is a below-average .263. One would expect his batting average to normalize closer to .285, which would raise his numbers even further. He is walking nearly 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in less than 14% of them. He has posted career highs in Isolated Power and in Line Drive Percentage, which our both good signs. I just can't find something I don't like, as it looks like he's developing into a monster, elite top prospect. There is plenty of justification to move him up further on my list, and upon review I just might.

If you're interested in an analysis of Santana's swing, take a look at Baseball Intellect.