Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

Limited in high-upside talent

1. OF Travis Snider (A-) - As a 20 year old starting the season in Hi-A, Travis Snider tore through AA and AAA while closing his season with a successful stint in Toronto. That sounds like an A prospect, and there's a lot to like, so let's focus on that, first. He posted a .278 IsoP while being slightly young for Hi-A in 66 PA, and then followed that up with a .199 IsoP in AA in 423 PA while being very young for the level. He posted a .172 IsoP in limited PA in AAA before posting a .165 IsoP in MLB, all as a 20 year old. Those are very interesting numbers and indicate an enormous level of power potential and an excellent chance to be a middle of the order slugger. His .804 OPS was very impressive in his stint with the Jays at his age, particularly with some of his limitations, which I'll get to in a bit. Snider raised his LD% progressively from 8% in Hi-A all the way to an unsustainable 29% in MLB, but even before that, he was at 15% and 21% at the two levels in between, which suggests he was striking the ball well. There's no doubt he should be mashing homers at a tremendous rate, as he should be a force in Toronto's lineup for a long time.

Here's the problem. Snider's 20 and he's not ready, even if he made his debut. His K%'s over his levels were as follows: 33.3%, 27.4%, 22.8%. 28.8%. He did cut his K rate as he moved up, but it's still very high. If he doesn't make enough contact, he won't be taking enough advantage of his profilific power potential. There are likely a ton of swings and misses, too, because in Hi-A, AAA and MLB his BB% never crossed 7.6%, though it was an impressive 12.3% in AA, where he had the most PA. On average, though, those low rates concern me, as he was at 9.5% in 2007. 4 times over the last two years, Snider has posted a BABIP of at least .371, and that seems hard to sustain at higher levels considering how often he swings and misses. By all accounts, Snider does not project to be a plus defender, which means his bat will need to carry him at either LF/RF or at DH.

Snider has plus, plus raw power and has shown it in game situations. He has performed admirably at levels where he is extremely young for the competition average. He is already at least an average major leaguer just based on his power tools. Snider should project more walks as teams work around his power, but I suspect he'll be seeing lots of breaking balls and pitches out of the zone until he learns how to control the strike zone better. His BABIP, and thus, his AVG, are going to drop some as he continues to play, which means his evolution in strike-zone discipline will determine how good of a hitter he will be. If he evolves into a more aware hitter, the sky's the limit with his power. Even if he doesn't, his power will stay play at the major league level. His floor is solid, his ceiling is enormous.

2. LHP Brett Cecil (B+) - Brett Cecil is a second player who really rose through an otherwise depleted Blue Jays system in 2008. Cecil is an intriguing combination of quality stuff and an ability to keep the ball on the ground, all from the left side. In 117 innings last season between Hi-A and AAA as a 21 year-old, Cecil allowed 100 hits, fanned 129 and and walked 41. His K% was around 26% and his GB% was around 63%. He walked around 8% of the batters he faced. Aside from his 10 inning stint at Hi-A, Cecil's BABIP was either .310 or .314, which is sustainable considering his repetoire. At all three levels, his FIP was 3.31 or under. He allowed just 6 HR's. He was certainly young for his level. There are some concerns that Cecil will have to move back to relief because he started there, and some concerns about his fastball, which sits between 88-92, though he does have a dominant slider. With better stuff, Cecil would an A-, but we'll have to see if he can continue to sustain this stuff.

3. CA J.P. Arencibia (B) - Arencibia is a pretty product for someone who played college baseball, but by all accounts he improved his defensive skills during the 2008 season. Arencibia was drafted as an athletic catcher with plus raw power. He split last season between Hi-A (.904 OPS) and AA (.798 OPS) as a 22 year old, so he was age appropriate at Hi-A and young for AA, though not extremely so. Focusing on the plusses first, Arencibia posted IsoP's of .245 at Hi-A and .214 at AA, both very impressive for a C. He struck out 17 and 20% of the time collectively, which is far from elite but more tolerable for a catcher with that kind of IsoP. His BABIP's were reasonable, at .311 and .344 respectively, particularly considering he's not a clogger on the bases. He made decent hard contact with an LD% of 15%, though that dropped from 19% in his debut, though his IsoP raised by almost .100, so he'll take the trade. He caught about 33% of the base-stealers, which will play at his position with his stack.

The big problem, for me, with Arencibia, is that he's walking between 4 and 6% of the time, and that's really not acceptable for any level. If he's going to walk at that small of an amount, he'll have to maintain his IsoP in the .200 range and he'll have to cut his K's. If he can walk a bit more, he has a bit more room for error. Still, as a catcher, his power is a real plus and can make him an asset.

4. 1B David Cooper (B) - Cooper was behind fellow draftees at first-base like Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak and Eric Hosmer, but he carries quite an interesting package, as well. He is very advanced in his approach at the plate and has at least plus raw power, though he is limited defensively at the position. Cooper moved from Lo-A to Hi-A in his debut, posting an OPS over .900 at the first two stops before finishing at an .808 OPS in Hi-A, all as a 21 year-old. Cooper featured a cumulative 9.8% BB% while posting a K% of just 15%. His IsoP was just .170, so that will need to improve, as will is his inconsistent LD%, which ranged from 19% to 8%. Still, he hit over .300 at all three stops, and twice over .340. His BABIP was at least .360 at all three levels and twice over .400, so that may be a bit high, but it's clear Cooper can hit. Whether the power comes along as expected is another story, but I like his ability to make contact (hopefully better contact in time), which gives him a chance to take advantage of his plus-power potential, even if he hasn't already.

5. 2B/3B Scott Campbell (B-) - An Australian signee by the Blue Jays, Campbell is old for his level, but it is considered acceptable for how raw he was when he came over. Campbell can play 2B/3B, but he's clearly suited for second considering his lack of power. He is a typical Blue Jays prospect, with great control of the strike zone but somewhat limited upside. He has never struck out more than he walked, last season posting a 66/63 BB/K ratio with an .825 OPS and a .125 IsoP, the best of his short three year career. His BABIP is at sustainable levels (.339 this year) and his LD% rose to a career best 21% last season, so he's definitely improving his good contact rates, which coincides with his improvement in his IsoP. His BB rate was 13.6%, and it's going to have to me, because he's not going to slug at a high level in the major leagues. What Campbell should do is put the ball in play and get on base at a useful rate as either a utility player or a second basemen. He may play at 3B if his defense is good enough.

6. 2B Bradley Emaus (B-) - Emaus is a similar player to Campbell but at a lower level, hence the lower grade. Like Campbell, he walked more than he struckout (60:56), but featued a BB% of 11.8%, as opposed to Campbell's 13.6%. Unlike Campbell, though, Emaus has the power projection that could make him an above average regular with his quality approach to hitting, and his ARL is solid, too. Sporting an IsoP of .163, he stands the opportunity to be a pretty good player, though again, just at 2B. Emaus ranks below Campbell simply because of his lack of a track record (Campbell's done it over three years) and his lower BB%, but the prospects are interchangeable and EMaus has more power potential.

7. LHP Bradley Mills (C+) - I think Mills is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors right now, hence my deviation from the normal grade on him. 

8. LHP Ricky Romero (C+) -

9. SS Justin Jackson (C+) -

10. 3B Kevin Ahrens (C+) -

Sleeper: RHP Mark Rzepczysnki 

Draft: OF Eric Thames

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects

This system is sick!

1. LHP David Price (A) - David Price is probably the #2 prospect between Matt Wieters heading into the 2009 season, though I'd have no problem switching the two. As evidenced in his brief major league experience (which featured him getting a save over the Red Sox in the 2008 ALCS Game 7), Price has absolutely electric stuff. He throws a hard fastball and has a nasty slider as well. He's got a good head on his shoulders and should break camp in the spot vacated by RHP Edwin Jackson, who was shipped to Detroit in a nice move for OF Matt Joyce. Price pitched at an unbelievable 4 levels last season, going from Hi-A all the way to the majors. He never had a K% under 20.7%, including a 21% K% in the majors coming out of the pen. He has generally featured strong control, with three of his four stops featuring a BB% below 7%. He even keeps the ball on the ground, never sporting a GB% below 52%. He gave up an uncanny 13% of Homers on flyballs in 2008 at AA, so that number was probably pretty unlucky and shouldn't continue.

There are a couple of concerns which makes me think he's behind Wieters. For someone of such acclaim, he allowed a fair amount of hits (92) relative to innings pitched (109). That's still very good, but if you've been reading my posts, I've illuminated a number of pitchers who have exhibited more dominance (Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman) in that category. Still, part of me chalks that up to moving four levels in one season and never getting truly acclimated. Price did not dominate AAA in any capacity before getting the call. He gave up four more hits than innings pitched and had a BB% of nearly 11 in 18 AAA innings. He was pretty unlucky there, sporting a .393 BABIP, so that may explain the hit percentage, but it sure looks to me like he wasn't quite ready to make the jump as a SP, even if he dominated coming out of the pen in the bigs. Price had a pretty lucky .238 BABIP in AA, so the amount of hits he should've allowed is somewhere in between his AA and AAA numbers. By all accounts, he was pretty lucky in AA and pretty unlucky in AAA, when looking at the FIP, though I mentioned the HR/AIR% being pretty unlucky as well in AA.

I have no doubt Price will be a dominant, #1 starter type in the near future at the major league level. I just think those that think it will happen next year might be in for a bit of a disappointment. There are enough red flags about his performance that make me think there might be rookie pitchers that perform better than him next season (Thomas Hanson, perhaps? Trevor Cahill, if he gets a call?) because Price hasn't had enough time in AAA to hone is arsenal. Still, Price is easily the best pitching prospect in the minors.

2. SS Tim Beckham (A-) - It's hard to put too much stock in Timothy Beckham's 2008 debut, as he was still very raw. He hit .243/.297/.345 with 43 K's and 13 BB in 177 AB's. He walked just 5.8% of the time and struck out 21.8% of the time (which is a decent number considering his age and suggests a lower rate in the future). He had a decent .102 IsoP for a young player, but like I said, I wouldn't put too much stock in any of those numbers right now. Beckham gets an A- grade because he was easily the best talent in the draft relative to position (Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez may be better hitters overall, but none can play the demanding position of SS). Beckham is regarded as having excellent bat speed, making solid contact despite some mechanical flaws that the Rays will have to iron out, and you can see that with his 15% LD% in his debut. Beckham is at least an average runner, if not a plus runner, and he stole 5 out of the 6 bases he attempted to steal in his debut. Despite being 6'2, by all accounts Beckham should be able to stay at SS and use his 5-tool talents at a premium position. Beckham does not have plus-plus raw power potential, but heas enough potential to be a 20-25 HR hitter with a well-rounded game. You can't expect too much from him too soon, but I would expect Beckham to follow in the foot-steps of B.J. Upton and Delmon Young and be advanced somewhat rapidly, despite his age. I'm not sure Beckham has the advanced approach of Upton or the natural hitting ability of Young, but I don't doubt he'll be a similarly useful player in the future.

3. CF Desmond Jennings (B+) - Jennings is a legitimate five-tool talent and a natural centerfielder, and as a result, one of my favorite prospects in baseball. The reason he is this low is because of repeated injury concerns. If Jennings can stay healthy, he will be an impact player at the MLB level. He only had 102 PA's this year due to injury, so I'm going to stray from talking about this season and just talk about his overall skillset. In three years in the minors, his BB% has risen from 8.9% to 13.1%, and his K rate has stayed right around 15%, which is excellent for a 21 year old. The injuries have limited his ability to have a strong ARL, but he'll be age appropriate for his level next season even if he opens at Hi-A. He has his LD% up to 17% and he seems to now how to use his speed, stealing 82 bases at a 79% efficiency. His power is still largely a source of projection, but I think it will come with the rising LD% and his approach at the plate. He's not going to hit 30-40 HR's, I'd wager, but he stands a chance to hit between 15-25 with a gaggle of other tools in the box. He seems to fit right in with the rest of the Tampa philosophy, and he'll make the bigs assuming he can stay healthy. A B+ is aggressive with Jennings because of the injury history, but I'm willing to bet he'll prove me right this upcoming season.

4. RHP Jeremy Hellickson (B) - A fourth rounder in the 2005 draft, Hellickson has demonstrated unreal control over the course of his career. He had 162 K's and 20 BB last season over 128 innings. He did allow 125 hits, but that may largely be as a result of his excellent control, being around the plate all of the time. He's small in stature, just 6-1, 185, and he was a bit lucky last season. In AA, when he allowed 64 hits in 76.1 innings, Hellickson had a pretty hard to maintain .291 BABIP, particularly as someone who is regularly around the plate. He walked just 1.7% of the batters he faced while fanning 28%. I think the amount of hits he gave up in AA, 84, over 75 innings, is a more reasonable expectation, though his BABIP may have been an unusually high .358, so his likelihood is somewhere in the middle, probably. If he can keep his hits allowed in line with the innings he pitches, he'll be a very effective starter. I've watched his pitching mechanics and he looks an awful lot like Brad Penny, but his stats remind me an awful lot of current Ray Andy Sonnanstine, though Hellickson may have better control and slightly better stuff (it's regarded as slightly above-average). 

The concern for Hellickson is his extreme flyball tendencies, posting GB% of 47 and 42 at his two levels last season. He's still young for his level, but that doesn't seem like it's going to improve with age. He will be victimized if he becomes more hittable, because as more contact is put on the ball they are more likely to head out of the park. As we saw last year, his HR/AIR% was between 6 and 12%, which means he's going to give up the longball, and that's alright if he's giving up solo-shots. The concern with Hellickson will come if he continues to be hit as hard as he was in AA (84 in 75 innings, remember) or if he loses some of his great control (it's sitting in the almost unreasonable 3% territory right now for BB%). The flyball tendency coupled with the smallish stature and non-elite offerings prevent him from being higher than a B right now, but another solid performance will move him up to a B+ or A-.

5. RHP Wade Davis (B) - Wade Davis is kind of a polarizing pitcher for me, because a lot of what he does has to be discounted because of his age relative to his league. His somewhat fringy numbers (only at times) can be mitigated because of how young he is for the level. I'm speaking mostly about his 2008 campaign at AA. After finishing up 2007 with fanning 81 batters in 80 innings and walking 30 at AA, Davis returned to AA in 2008 and pitched, well, worse. In 107 innings he allowed 104 hits and fanned just 81 batters, good for a K rate of 17.8%, down from 23.8% last season and way down from the 27.8% of his earlier pitching career. His walk rate has also continued to rise, from 6.9% in 2006 to 10.9% at the close of 2008. I suspect he may have been disinterested in repeating AA, as his numbers at AAA when he got a promotion improved a bit, allowing just 39 hits in 53 innings while fanning 55. Still, like I said, the walk rate continued to jump. Of similar concern is the fact that Davis is trending toward a flyball pitcher, closing 2008 with a GB% of just 45%. His combined FIP last season was 4.07. His K% did move back up to 24.8% in AAA, though, and again, he was just 22 in AAA last season. Still, another bad year will see him drop considerably on prospect rankings in my opinion, and I'm going to grade conservatively on him right now.

6. LHP Jacob McGee (B) - Jacob McGee is the second player on this list with serious injury concerns, and those are coupled by some concern that he may be better suited for the bullpen. McGee is going to be coming off of Tommy John surgery, so you have to temper your enthusiasm a bit, but I like what he's done in his past and Tommy John has been a reliable procedure for awhile. Before injury woes hurt his percentages in AA in 2008, McGee struck out an eye-popping 29% of the batters he faced, on average. Even with the need for the Tommy John in 2008, he still allowed 12 fewer hiters than innings pitched, so he does an excellent job of missing bats. He does have flyball tendencies, though, and he also has control issues, posting a walk rate of nearly 14% in 2008, which is why some have though he may be better as a swing and miss type reliever that can work the late innings. It certainly would reduce the stress on his arm. 

Still, though, McGee is an enormous upside arm and if he can come back from the injury, which seems likely, given a lot of patience, McGee has a floor of a dominant left-handed reliever and a ceiling of a front-end starter, assuming he can keep his control at a reasonable level and avoid injury. Neither of those things are constants, though, considering the injury, so I think it's likely he'll be shifted to the pen. Again, this grade is an aggressive one, and it won't be backed up for most of 2009, but the stuff is there.

7. RHP Nick Barnese (B) - Nick Barnese falls into the next stable of young arms, with Kyle Lobstein and Matt Moore, who should help to replenish the system depth behind the likes of Hellickson, McGee, Price and Davis. Barnese has solid power stuff and has posted two consectutive quality seasons. While he could not maintain his small sample size BB% of 2.4%, Barnese posted a quality 8.9% BB Rate in Lo-A, all the while improving an already impressive K rate from 24 to 31%. He only threw 66 innings, but he fanned 84 during that process while allowing just 52 hits. He had a solid GB% of 55% and his BABIP was at a sustainable level. As good as his ERA was, at 2.45, his FIP was even better, at 2.40. There is little not to like about Barnese, other than how far away he is from the majors. I'm going to aggressively slot him at a B, as I see nothing wrong with what he's doing right now.

8. LHP Matt Moore (B-) - I personally think Moore is a bit behind Barnese in terms of development, almost solely because he repeated rookie ball last season. I realize Tampa is deliberate with their prospects, but I have absolutely no idea why he didn't get a sniff of Lo-A as a 19 year old. He made progress within rookie ball, cutting his absurdly high BB% from 17% to 8.9% (perhaps the reason he stayed in rookie ball) and raising his K% from 31 to 34%. He upped his GB% from 42 to 61% and held his BABIP at .262, which might not be so unreasonable considering he was a second year player pitching against first year players. That won't keep at higher levels, but it's not unreasonable here. His FIP was 2.45, which was higher than his 1.66 ERA, but still impressive. He allowed just 7 XBH, including no HR's, in those 54 innings he pitched. 

Those numbers are great, but I can't go higher than a B- on a guy who is repeating rookie ball. Let's see if he can carry his improved control and GB% to higher levels. If he can, he'll move right up with Barnese, and he has an advantage on him, being left-handed.

9. SS Reid Brignac (B-) - Reid Brignac has been around forever, so excuse me if I'm sick of talking about him. To refresh, Brignac had an excellent debut season in 2004 and burst onto the prospect scene in 2006, when he hit .321/.376/.539 as a natural SS and a 20 year old in AA. He played all of 2007 in AA and struggled to a less stellar line, with a .761 OPS. Brignac posted his best BB% in his career of 9.2% and a wonderful K% of 15%, so he was certainly doing a better job of putting the bat on the ball. He was extraordinarily unlucky, however, with a BABIP in the .280's. His IsoP remained a constant at .172, so I wasn't terribly concerned and chalked the numbers up to bad luck, and remained pretty excited about him. He improved his fielding percentage, as well.

Something happened between making progress in 2007 and 2008. His LD% dropped from 19% in 2007 to 16% in 2008. His BB% dropped from 9.2% to 6.5%, and his K rate rose back to nearly 25%. I don't believe AAA pitching is THAT much more advanced than AA pitching, though he possibly struggled with breaking balls. He still kept a solid IsoP of .162, so it really looks like it was a matter of making solid contact with Brignac. His BABIP of .316 was still lower than career levels, so that may still rise. His fielding percentage also continued to improve at AAA, up to .970. 

I don't see Brignac walking a ton, but he's going to have to walk more than 6.5% and K less than 25% if he's going to make it in the big leagues. He's not giving himself a shot to use his raw power by missing so many balls. He'll still be just 23 in AAA next year, so there's plenty of time for him to figure it out, but if he has a repeat of 2008, his stock will drop even further from the successful 2006 and 2007 seasons. Make or break time for Brignac (gosh that sounds like a drink).

10. RHP Jeff Niemann (B-) - Jeff Niemann is another one of the more underappreciated prospects in the game. He is major league ready and will likely break camp with the Rays because he is out of options. He had a decent debut in Tampa Bay, striking out 18% of the batters he faced as a reliever while walking 10%. Niemann's never been young for a level, but he's always been around age appropriate, where he should be. He had a dominant run in 2008 in his second time at AAA Durham, walking 9.1% while fanning 23.4%. He posted a 48% GB rate, so he's close to dead even, and that will play well enough in the pen, where his quality stuff will be further enhanced. Oddly enough, though, Niemann's FIP in 2008 was 4.12, as opposed to his first stay in AAA, where it was 3.62. The reason for that rise was his BABIP, which was a largely unsustainable .249. He got pretty lucky, but I liked the improvement in his peripherals, raising his K% by 2% while raising the BB% by only 1%. He did allow 32 fewer hits than innings pitched last year, but like I said, you can thank the low BABIP for that. He's probably right around the same amount of hits and innings pitched, when you adjust for luck. Indeed, adjusting for luck suggests he should have had a BABIP of .312 and 120 hits allowed in 129 innings, so he was not as good as last year seemed, though he was better than 2007 seemed. 

Ultimately, I think Niemann could make it as a back-end starter with some dominant performances and some iffy outings where he is hurt by the long ball. With his power stuff, though, I think Niemann could make for a potentially dominant short-reliever, and I think that's where his future with the Rays is next year. He would probably be first in line to start if David Price falls short of making the squad or there is another injury.

Personal Favorite: CA John Jaso - With some apologies to backup catcher Shawn Riggans, John Jaso should absolutely be the backup catcher for the Rays next season. In his career in the minors, Jaso has exemplified what it means to control the strike zone, fanning 255 times while walking 251. At AA this season as a 24 year old (so he's a little old for the level, but as a catcher, that's probably OK...he was also inexplicably repeating the level after showing a mastery of it the previous season) Jaso walked 17.6% of the time while fanning just 9.4% of the time (62 BB, 33 K). He made solid contact, posting a 19% LD%. His SLG% did drop from .451 to .406 at the same level, but it seems clear that Jaso's power is more to the gaps than for the long ball, and it will be his on-base ability that ultimately carries him to the next level. In a stint at Durham to end the year (118 PA), Jaso continued to demonstrate excellent control of the strike zone (10BB/14K) and showed some added power, posting a .203 IsoP, up from .138 at AA. He was unlucky at both levels last year, posting BABIP's of .281 and .286 respectively, and yet still hitting .270 and .278. More hits will find the field in the future. Jaso's arm is not a strength, throwing out between 25-30% of the baserunners attempting to steal, but that will play enough if he can keep up that level of production. His bat, however, has the potential to be a real plus.

For what it's worth, CHONE projects Jaso at a .721 OPS, and Marcel at a .758 OPS, which is just about where guys like Saltalamacchia and Max Ramirez are projected. 

Sleeper: CA/DH Jacob Jefferies - Jacob Jefferies is a second draft pick by the Rays from 2008, out of UC Davis. Jefferies has a very interesting bat, with excellent control of the strike zone and very solid contact skills offensively. Unfortunately, that is where his offensive skills end, as he does not yet have any projectible power, though there are some that believe he still may develop enough to hit 10-15 Homers, which would sit very well with the skillset he currently already has. He's about an average runner and is very strong at spraying line drives. Indeed, in his debut, he had an LD% of an impressive 21% and a K% of just 8.3%, though he only walked 8% of the time as well. Still, those numbers indicate he's putting the ball in play a ton and he's making good contact when doing so. His .341 BABIP is sustainable with that approach, I would suspect, and his .118 IsoP is actually more than I expected when you consider his approach. He finished with a .315/.379/.433 line in Lo-A, and would project to be at least a useful backup catcher even if he didn't develop any more power, were it not for one concern: his catch and throw skills.

Jefferies arm is extremely fringy, though he has made progress on receiving and blocking balls. He played a good deal of DH in his debut and if he's relegated to a position besides CA/2B/3B, he might have a hard time making it as a big-leaguer unless he develops power. He retired only 4 of 23 attempting base-stealers last season, and that will not play as a catcher. Still, he's young and has time to improve, and his approach on the offensive end is impressive.

Sleeper 2: LHP Kyle Lobstein - Not surprisingly, Lobstein was yet another draft pick in my fantasy draft, so I'm pretty familiar with him. Lobstein was an early second round pick signed for mid-first round money, and he's got a very advanced approach to pitching as a high-schooler, drawing numerous comparisons to former Angel and Indian Chuck Finley. He's got smooth, repeatable mechanics and a solid repetoire. He was throwing his fastball between 88 and 90 MPH last season, but he's been known to have more in that department, and he should settle in at a low-90's point with an opportunity to dial it into the mid-90's. My interest in Lobstein stems from the development of his secondary pitches, however. He has a curveball that is almost a 12-6 and has good break, and should be a plus-plus offering at the major league level. He's also got a solid-average change-up which has a chance to get better as he uses it more. He has very strong control for a youngster and has good mechanics to boot. Lobstein is athletic and played basketball as well in high school, so he's surprisingly raw considering the scouting report I just provided. As he pitches more, he should move onto this list quite easily, particularly with the likely graduation of Price and Niemann to begin the season.

Others maintaining prospect status of use are CF Fernando Perez, OF Reid Fronk, OF Justin Ruggiano and OF Ty Morrison, along with P Heath Rollins and P Mitch Talbot

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects

First of all, kudos to the Orioles for locking up one of the most underrated players in baseball, OF Nick Markakis, to a 6/66M contract. It bought out three years of free-agency, and Markakis looks like a .300/.400/.500 hitter with elite defense. Great sign.

1. CA Matt Wieters (A) - Matt Wieters is the 1A to David Price's 1, and might be ahead of him a bit due to position, though both are extremely valuable. Statistically, Wieters was a beast. Between Hi-A and AA, Wieters walked 82 times and fanned just 76 times, all the while mashing 29 Homers. He hit a remarkable .355 between the two levels and and finished with nearly a .600 SLG%. He actually cut his K rate by 5% in AA, and he was young for the level. He made good contact, posting LD rates of 16 and 18%, respectively. It's possible a BABIP of .383 might be unsustainable in the bigs, but that's probably nitpicking. He threw out 37 of 94 basestealers, which is a number that the Orioles will happily live with. The Orioles just signed Gregg Zaun to a major league contract after unloading Ramon Hernandez, and do have Guillermo Quiroz, Chad Moeller and some other depth in the minors, so Wieters may not open with the club, but it's really only a matter of time. Bill James thinks that Wieters would post a .926 OPS if he played in the majors as a 23 year old. Disgusting. CHONE is a little more conservative, suggesting a .791 OPS, but that would still be incredible. Between Soto last year and Wieters this year, what a crop, though Wieters is a much better prospect long-term than Soto.

2. RHP Chris Tillman (A-) - I'm on of the bigger Erik Bedard fans on this planet, and think he's nothing short of elite when he's healthy, but Tillman is the third part of the five pieces that the O's got for Bedard (the others are CF Adam Jones, CL George Sherill, RHP Kam Mickolio and LHP Tony Butler). At least four of those five, and maybe all five, are going to have an impact on the Orioles within the next two years. That is larceny. Statisically, Tillman is very impressive, and is just 20 at AA, so the ARL is fantastic. He struckout 154 batters in 135 innings last season and allowed just 115 hits, leading to a 26.6% K%. He does have some red flags that preclude him from an A, however, and the main one is that he is a flyball pitcher, with a GB% of just 40% last season. He also walked 11.2% of the batters he faced, though that concerns me less considering his age and level. Even with the longball though, he has a plus arsenal with a hard fastball and a very good curveball, though he is still working on developing a third pitch, whether it be a splitter or a change. Tillman's got a projectible build at 6-5, 200 pounds and he's exceeded pre-draft expectations a bit. He's got front-line stuff for sure, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone he'll be an ace.

3. LHP Brian Matusz (B+) - Brian Matusz was the consensus top pitcher in the 2008 MLB Draft, though there was some question about how strong he was as that top pitcher. Matusz is an interesting lefty who can touch 94-95 with his fastball and who has plus secondary stuff, sporting excellent command with both his slider and his change-up. He can use a slider which works as a cutter to back players off of the plate, as well. He has a nice build at 6'5 and he has room to grow. There are some concerns about his fastball not being as high as it needs to be, but with the secondary stuff, it should work either way. Matusz seems like a very safe selection and a near sure-bet to make it to the Orioles rotation within a few years. I did not pitch in the minors last season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him debut at A or A+ if the scouting reports support it.

4. RHP Jake Arrieta (B) - Jake Arrieta is a smidge behind Tillman, but represents the third consecutive starter on this list with better than average stuff. Arrieta is two yeas older than Tillman and only in Hi-A, so he doesn't have the production at the age of Tillman, but make no mistake, Arrieta is still age appropriate for this level of competition. He struck out about 26% of the batters he faced last season and had a GB% of nearly 50%. He also struggled with walks, however, walking 11% of the batters he faced without the relative rawness of Tillman. His FIP was 3.65, so it was higher than his 2.83 ERA, but still acceptable. Arrieta has a low to mid-90's fastball with a very good slider, when working, and a developing change up. Moreover, he allowed just 79 hits in 113 innings in Hi-A, which allowed for his WHIP to stay at an above average level, even in light of the 51 walks. I'm a bit more concerned about Arrieta's control than I am about Tillman's, because Arrieta his older than Tillman by two years and at a lower level. I like Arrieta's potential to have at least middle of the rotation upside, if not better, but he'll absolutely have to throw more strikes in the future, or continue allowing so few hits (very unlikely) in order to be truly successful. Still, another intriguing arm to slot behind Guthrie, Matusz and Tillman.

5. OF Nolan Reimold (B) - Nolan Reimold should already be in the big leagues playing with the Orioles based on his age and current production, but the O's have been oddly patient with him. Reimold is a career .278/.375/.507 hitter in the minors, so he's more than proven his readiness based on those numbers. Injuries may have slowed him down a bit, but at 25, he needs to make it pretty soon and I'd be surprised if he didn't make his debut next season at some point, presuming his health holds up. He posted a .284/.367/.501 line last season with 25 homers and 63 walks. He is strictly a corner outfielder with his toolbox, but his skillset should hold up fairly well at that position. His BB% was a very impressive 10.8% and his K rate was an equally impressive 14%. His IsoP was a perfectly acceptable .214, as well. I think Reimold may have been a little bit unlucky, as well, as his BABIP was just .14 points higher than his AVG (.300 to .286). Either quite a few of his hits were home runs (possible, considering his 25 homers, but not likely), or a lot of the balls he was putting in play found gloves at a higher rate than most others (more likely). Part of the ball finding more gloves likely has to do with Reimold's low LD% (just 13%) and his GB% (37%). It sounds like he was hitting a lot of lazy fly balls which are easier to get under and get outs from.

In my opinion, Reimold is ready to be an effective big league OF at a corner position, and I do believe he is more than just a fourth outfielder. To be successful in the bigs he'll have to make more solid contact, but it's evident with his K and BB% that he's making plenty of contact. His GB% may have been a bit of a fluke, and his BABIP will surely go up if he hits .286 again, even with the same LD% and GB%, so his numbers should be sustainable at higher levels. He'll make a nice LF with Jones in CF and Markakis in RF, though Felix Pie and his defense may have something to say about that in 2009.

6. RHP Brandon Erbe (B-) - Brandon Erbe is riding a bit of a prospect rollercoaster, but it is finally on the upswing after a couple years of not redeeming his high esteem. Erbe was repeating Hi-A but he was also young for the level, at just 20. He's clearly behind the three pitchers listed ahead of him, but Erbe has a chance to make the rotation pretty potent at the back end. Statistically, he cut his BB% from 11.4% to 8% last season, and he raised his K% from 20.4% to 24%, closer to the rest of his career profile. He allowed 112 H over 140 innings, as opposed to the 127 H he allowed in 119 innings last season. So why the difference in performance? It's hard to say. 

Let's look at the red flags here, and the reasons I won't go higher on Erbe than a B-. His FIP was 4.45 this season, and his ERA was 4.48, despite the good peripherals. His BABIP was an absolutely unsustainable .260, particularly when you look at his career marks and MLB league averages. His GB% dipped from 48 to 42%, and he allowed 20 HR's, sporting a 9% HR/Air ratio. I want to see an improvement in GB% and a normalized BABIP before I start moving Erbe into the class of Arrieta.

Erbe does throw hard and he is regarded as someone with good stuff and good control, it's not impossible that he could maintain solid numbers, but let's see how things normalize first.

7. RHP David Hernandez (B-) - I think David Hernandez is possibly if not probably one of the most underrated hurlers in the minor leagues. He flashes excellent stuff from the right side, though he's a bit on the short side at just 6'2, 180. He is a strikeout machine, sporting strikeout percentages of 24, 27 and 27.7% over his minor league career, which is a trend that will make prospect evaluators pretty happy. Folks are concerned with his walks, much like with Arrieta, as he moved from a 7.4% walk rate in 2007 to an 11% BB rate in 2008, this after posting an 11% BB rate in 2006. He doesn't have Arrieta's physical projection or Tillman's ARL, however, so the walks are more of a knock on Hernandez than the others. He doesn't have that kind of room for error. He is also bordering on an extreme flyball pitcher, as his GB% was just 38% last year, and it's never been higher. He allowed 39 few hits than innings pitched this season, however, and his BABIP was a bit better at .300, though still lower than career marks, so we're likely to see some regression in that regard. He's also 23 in AA, so he is, at best, age appropriate for his league. His FIP of 3.48 suggests a pretty solid pitcher, but it's hard to imagine that more of the flyballs he gives up aren't going to go out of the park (a seemingly low number of 4% went out last season). Still, even if Hernandez cannot get the control down or keep the balls from flying out at higher levels, he at least as a role as a reliever that can miss bats from the right side (and that might help to preserve his smaller stature, to boot). 

8. 1B Brandon Snyder (B-) - Brandon Snyder was a very high draft pick of the Orioles a couple of years ago and was widely considered to be nearing bust status before a pretty prominent return to form. He was drafted as a catcher and that did not work out, but he seems to be fitting in as a power hitting first baseman who has real struggles on the defensive side of the ball, and thus might be relegated to DH. As a 21 year old in Hi-A (so still age appropriate for the level, if not a little young), Snyder posted an .840 OPS with a lot of reasons for encouragement. He made decent contact, cutting his K% from 24% to 17%, and from 34% to 17% over two years. His BB% was still an abysmal 6.1%, down from a sorry 8.8% of 2007, though up from the 5.7% he had in 2006. He continued his trend from 2007 of making good, solid contact, keeping his LD% at 17% after moving it up to 21% in 2007. He posted a .313 AVG with a somewhat unsustainable .362 BABIP, particularly when you consider his speed limitations. He raised his IsoP from .136 to .172, and with his build and projection, that number should continue to go up, which is largely why he has received a B- grade. With continued improvement in dropping his K% and raising his IsoP while maintaining a good average, Snyder could blossom into a pretty good 1B/DH prospect. The Orioles will take this over the potential bust he was two years ago.  

I would like to see him be a bit more patient. He's making good contact and is really big, but 6.1% BB rate will not play well in the majors, even if he's striking out less.

9. 3B Bill Rowell (C+) - Similar to Snyder, Rowell has absolutely enormous potential with little results to show for it, especially recently. He's also been reported to have some attitude issues. His OPS has been dropping consistently, from .932 as a rookie all the way to .680 last season. Rowell's been on my radar for awhile because he was one of five players over the last four years to post an OPS over .700 as an 18 year old or younger in A Ball. That's an extremely impressive accomplishment, so his OPS drop didn't concern me last year, but the further drop concerns me this year, particularly when I hear about the attitude problems. Still, his upside his enormous. Writing off his unsustainable 2006 debut numbers (.430 BABIP, 22-27% LD%), Rowell raised his LD% from 12 to 14% in 2008, which is a positive sign. He also saw a .32 point dip in his BABIP, though probably to the more sustainable number of .332. His BB% rose from 7.9% to 8.8%, and his K% dropped from 26.9% to 25.4%, so there is progress being made, albeit small. His already falling IsoP dropped from .153 to .121, and that's just not going to cut it for the power hitter that Rowell was billed to be coming out of high school. For a guy without a ton of speed, a GB% of 62% seems awfully high, and may be the reason for the falling IsoP. He's not getting a ton of hits anyway, hitting just .251, but when he does get hits, there's an awful lot of singles there, what with a SLG% of just .372 and that small IsoP. He improved his fielding percentage at 3B up to 92.5%, much better than the 88.8% of 2007. 

Rowell's got plenty of time. He didn't turn 20 until after the season and he'll be 20 throughout most of next season, either repeating Hi-A or at AA. I wouldn't be too worried about Rowell unless he flops again next year, but he is going to have to hit at some point. He needs to continue to restore his LD% and work on hitting the ball in the air more, which should take advantage of his untapped power potential. 

Of some concern is the fact that Frederick was a pretty significant hitters park last season, and of no help to Rowell's declining numbers. He's a guy to watch in 2009, both good and bad.

10. LHP Zach Britton (C+) - Zach Britton doesn't have nearly the panache of the other arms on this list, but what he does have his a modicum of consistency and success in a world of mostly projection. Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a GB% of 68%, and that will bode well for him as he moves up to higher levels. I would think he was a bit unlucky, allowing 6% of the flyballs he gives up to be homers, but he's not giving up a ton of flyballs, so it's not a huge concern. While he maintained his BB% of around 8%, Britton saw his K% rise from 13.2% in 2007 to almost 19% in 2008, a huge step forward for the lefty sinkerballer. Impressively, despite being a sinkerballer, Britton is not a finesse pitcher, hitting the low 90's with consistency and occasionally dialing it up as high as the mid-90's, which marks the second impressive hard-throwing lefty in the O's top 10 (they also have flamethrowing lefty Tony Butler, who has battled numerous injury woes). 

I've got some concerns about Britton on an otherwise impressive resume. His BABIP is absolutely unsustainable, at .250, particularly as a GB pitcher. He's going to allow a low of balls in play striking out just 114 in 147 innings, and there's no way that only 25% of those balls are going to find holes. His 117 hits in 147 innings is an entirely unrealistic expectation for him, and I'd expect an ideal scenario would see his hits and innings about the same. His FIP is a bit of a reflection of that, at 3.92, as opposed to his ERA of 3.12. It could be a reflection of his stuff, but with that kind of limiting though impressive K%, Britton won't be controlling hitters that well as he moves up. Still, a lefty with his skillset would be useful at the back-end of the rotation, and I think Britton has a good shot of making it there.

Sleeper: RHP Robert Bundy - Robert Bundy was the Orioles sixth round pick in the 2008 draft and has excellent projection and potential. Bundy is a big guy, at 6'2, 215, and he's projected to get bigger. That listed-weight may be on the conservative side. He barely played in 2008, but he received well over slot bonus to sign as a sixth rounder, and was widely considered as a first round prospect until he tore his ACL playing basketball as a senior and did not have the velocity that he normally did. Apparently, that velocity has returned, and a number of experts, including Kevin Goldstein, predict that his mid-90's heater may actually gain more velocity as time goes on. What impresses me with Bundy, however, is that he developed his secondary pitches as a result of being injured his senior year and not having the velocity one would expect. He also has excellent control, judging by his 6 BB in 54 innings as a HS senior, though it's hard to base anything on that considering he was facing pretty poor competition. 

I think Bundy has the chance to soar up prospect charts as long as his great control doesn't lead to repeated longballs. There have been reports that Bundy has a hard time not throwing strikes leading to excessive hittability, so we'll have to see how that translates.

Sleeper 2: 2B/OF L.J. Hoes- L.J. Hoes is a second 2008 draftee that had an immediate impact in his debut. He was taking 81st overall in the 2008 draft and has a very interesting combination of speed and advancement at the plate. He's never going to hit for much power, but he stole 10 bases and was caught zero times in his debut. Most interestingly, Hoes walked 30 times in 159 AB's and fanned just 22 times, demonstrating that advanced approach at the plate. He was initially drafted as an OF, but the Orioles saw something in him that suggested he could man second base, though I'm not sure how likely that is. He struggled there defensively last season, and also struggled against LHP, though he won't face them nearly as much. If he continues to post impressive OBP's and steals bases, his two tools will play, though he needs to be able to make it at either 2B or CF for that to happen.

Potential Major League Contributors next season: RHP Bradley Bergesen (Does not walk or strike anyone out, does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and could be useful in a swingman capatcity), LHP Troy Patton (Coming off of a significant injury, was one of the best prospects the Astros had and he could be able to make a dent in the Oriole rotation with a strong spring), RHP Kam Mickolio (Should work as a RH Middle Relief option, came over in the Bedard deal), LHP Wilfredo Perez (Really good stuff as a power lefty reliever)

Others: 3B Tyler Henson, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Chorye Spoone (injury woes), OF Xavier Avery

New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

1. DH Jesus Montero (A-) - Jesus Montero is an extremely impressive prospect and the only reason he's not receiving A- grades from other publications is because of a concern over the position he'll play. I think there is some fear that Montero will turn into a Max Ramirez type of player and start to hear some sneaking suspicions of the AAAA label, but Ramirez doesn't deserve those, and neither does Montero. As an 18 year old in A Ball facing pitchers two-three years older than him, Montero was extremely successful, posting a .326 average and a .491 SLG%. His K% was a very exciting 14.6%, and that should find potential to drop even further, and I'm really impressed by that number as an 18 year old. While Angel Villalona is younger than Montero as a 17 year old in A Ball, he struck out 25.8% of the time, so that's a pretty impressive number. You cannot scoff at the 17 home runs, either.

There are a few concerns, but they should be alleviated in time. Montero did not walk very much, posting a 6.5% BB rate. Still, his BABIP was a reasonable level considering his average, though possibly unsustainable at .358, and his LD% rose from 12% last year to 18% this season. He is WAY too big for catcher, and anyone still calling him a catcher have absolutely lost their mind. As an 18 year old, he's a monstrous 6'4, 225 pounds. He should fill out even more as time goes on, so he's probably a 1B/DH type, but his bat will more than play at either spot. In checking Montero's park effects, it may have helped his homers, but that's about it. When neutralizing for luck, Montero's stats remain very solid. I think Montero will be a top 15 prospect by next season and he is EASILY the best prospect in the system.

2. RHP Dellin Betances (B) - Betances has absolutely unbelievable stuff, but he has yet to put it together. His upside earns him this grade, as he is right up there with Montero in terms of impact ability, though he has proven less to this point. Injuries have seriously hurt his development, but he made an appearance in A Ball this year as a 20 year old, which means he's still Age Appropriate. He struckout 27.7% of the batters he faced in A Ball, walking 11.9% of them. His walk total is high but it might be a product of his lack of development, or it could be a product of his strikeouts, as he's getting a lot of people to chase. He allowed just 87 hits in 115.2 innings, though I have some reservations with his GB%, which was at 43%. His FIP was also 4.07, half a run higher than his ERA of 3.62. Still, his K/9 was well over 9, so there's a lot to like here. He'll need to work on keeping more balls on the ground if he wants to really improve, and perhaps cutting his BB rate as well, but there's a lot to like here.

In terms of scouting report, Betances throws the ball between 93-97 MPH and can often dial up for more. Betances also has a developing knuckle curveball and a raw changeup, and both are going to need to come on for him to get the most out of his stuff. Worst case, he could be a flame-thrower out of the pen, though that's tough with his somewhat questionable control. He may develop control issues naturally because he is huge (6'9). Give him time and that should work itself out.

3. CF Austin Jackson (B) - Austin Jackson is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors, in my opinion, and it's typical of the big market team (The Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury was similarly overrated). First and foremost, Jackson has plus-speed, and that makes him a threat to steal bases and to handle CF defensively. I am not concerned about his defense, however, as I included Che-Hsuan Lin and Ryan Kalish highly, but rather his ranking as a B prospect, which means that he is to have legitimate offensive potential. I'm just not sure that he does. After cutting his K% from 22 to 16% in a stint at A+, he raised it back up to 19% in his AA stint this year, though he was just 21 for that stint. Jackson is willing to take a walk, as evidenced by the 55 he took this year in 581 PA, which is what you'd like to see from a younger player at a higher level. You may see his strikeouts drop as he becomes more age appropriate for the level, but he still strikes me as being very raw in that regard.

The bigger concern for me is Jackson's lack of power. He has 26 career HR's in 1600 PA, which is pretty ugly for a potential 5-tool OF. Again, he's young for his level so that power may come, but those suggesting A- or B+ grades for Jackson seem a bit ahead of themselves. Jackson's stolen base numbers are also regressing, as he went from 37 two years ago to just 19 this year. His slugging percentage dropped from a cumulative .476 last season to just .419 this season. It appears to be that he is regressing but I do not want to jump ship because I'd like to see how he matures in other aspects of his game. He still hit .284 and posted a .354 OBP, both very impressive for a 21 year old in AA. In order to receive an elite ranking this year, though, he needed to continue his power production.

It seems to me that Jackson could be at risk of trending downward, but it wouldn't surprise at all if Jackson improves, particularly if the Yankees choose to start him at AA again, which is what I would do. He needs to develop more offensively before the Yankees think about calling him up. I'd also like to see him raise his LD% a bit, up from the 13% he had this year (which was up from the 11% he had last year).

4. RHP Andrew Brackman (B-) - I personally remember Andrew Brackman as a freshman backing up the stable of NC State big guys (including Ben McAuley), but he chose to sign with the Yankees and pursue a pitching career. Anyhow, Brackman has pitched exactly 2.1 innings of winter ball in his career, and yet I think he's the fourth best prospect in a pretty limited Yankee system. He's had all kinds of injury concerns, and the Yankees drafted him knowing that he would need Tommy John surgery. Before Brackman had to have the surgery, there was some question whether Brackman or Price would be the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. Brackman has a devastating curveball and a wicked fastball when healthy with a developing change-up that has a chance to be a third plus-offering. He is also enormous, at 6'10 and 240-70 pounds, depending on which database you take a look at. He's had injury concerns moving back to 2005, but he's extremely athletic and has shown a willingness to try and get himself healthy. If he can do that, watch out, this player could sore up the charts. He's got more upside than even Montero, and I like Montero a lot, so that's saying something. He pitched a bit in winter-ball in 2008, but he'll have a clean slate as a 23 year old in 2009 and he could be a great one if he can work it out.

5. CA Austin Romine (B-) - Romine is an interesting case of performance and projection meshing at a difficult position. By all accounts, Romine has a much better chance to stick at catcher, which is good, because his bat might not play at another position. In Romine's first exposure to minor league baseball, he hit an even .300 with a .344 OBP and a .435 SLG%. Interestingly, though, that first exposure came in A-Ball, which is pretty impressive for a 19-year old. He walked just 5.7% of his plate appearances, hence the low OBP relative to the BA, but he also struck out an impressive 12.4% of the times, meaning he was generally making contact, and good contact at that, with an LD% of 17%. He also hit 10 homers in 403 AB's, and considering his age for the level, that number might improve as well. Romine's biggest strength might be his arm, though, as he is considered to be an 80 on the 20-80 time in terms of his catch and release skills. He's a little raw behind the plate otherwise but should be able to stick there. He's projected to have at least average power, and we've already seen his good contact skills.

In my opinion, Romine is the exact type of player you'd like behind the plate as a big league club. He's athletic, he has the potential to put the ball in play and hit double-digit home runs, and he's going to cut down numerous runners with that arm. He's not flashy, but at a position where you'd have to pay a ton for Romine's type as a FA, I'd bet the Yankees are excited about his potential.

6. LHP Jairo Heredia (B-) - Jairo Heredia is a fairly intriguing prospect because of the differing opinion on his stuff. I've read some Yankee fans who suggest Heredia is a "meh" pitcher without plus stuff and a pitcher that is getting by with acumen. Others suggest Heredia has enough stuff to get by and very advanced feel for pitching, so we'll see which side is correct. Heredia is left-handed, keeps the ball on the ground (57%), strikes out batters (21.9%) and doesn't a decent, but not outstanding job with walks (9%). He was another 18 year-old in A Ball, so he is not yet age appropriate for his level and has room for growth. He has a little bit more leeway as a lefty who can get ground ball outs, though I am concerned with his FIP, which is 4.07, as opposed to his ERA, which is 3.25. His BABIP seems a reasonable .312, though. He allowed 3 less hits (99) than innings pitched (102.1). At least some of his many scouting reports suggest he has a fastball in the mid 90's coupled with a plus-curve and a developing change which could be a third-plus pitch, so there's reason to think he's got some potential to miss bats at higher levels. 2009 will be critical in Heredia establishing himself as a top 100 type prospect. He could just as easily fall of the radar if his stuff isn't up to par.

7. RHP Zach McAllister (B-) - McAllister is a heavy ground ball pitcher that has interesting stuff and stands to be an inning eater at the professional level. Indeed, McAllister combined for a 55.5% GB ratio between A and Hi-A as a 20 year old, so he's got a good ARL as well. He gets the majority of his outs on the ground, As he had a 1.48 GO/AO in his stint last season. That number will have to improve further as he moves up, because his K's per inning last year were not particularly impressive. He struckout just 115 in 151 innings, but amazingly, he walked just 21, which is good for a 3.4% BB rate. I would wager to guess that the reason McAllister's not getting even more ground ball outs is because so many balls are being put into play. He may have people jumping on earlier pitches because they know they're not getting a walk, so they're trying to elevate on pitches that are up in the zone. He only gave up 9 HR's, which is a bit of a surprise when you consider the GO/AO ratio isn't completely dominant, so that number should rise. His BABIP was a bit low (around .300) considering he doesn't strike a lot of players out, which indicates he was a little lucky and is supported by his FIP of nearly a run and a half higher at Hi-A (1.83 to 3.26).

In the end, I think McAllister is interesting because of his age at this level, his advanced understanding of pitching down in the zone, and his prominent control. If he doesn't raise his GO/AO ratio, however, he's going to start giving up more runs and that ERA is going to soar. I also question whether he's really the type of pitcher who's going to allow 19 less hits than innings pitched as he moves up in the minors. Still, he's got a package more interesting than any other Yankee at this point.

8. RHP Mark Melancon (C+) - Melancon is here because he is a relief pitcher that is close to the majors, but there's a big dropoff in where I consider McAllister and where I consider Melancon, nevermind the slight drop in grade. For a reliever, Melancon gets more outs on the ground than in the air, so that's valuable, particularly if he's going to pitch in the late innings. He's 23 and moved through three levels last season, so I should be able to sustain that as he moves further. He kept his WHIP under one (69 H and 22 BB in 95 IP) and he did strikeout 89 in 95 innings. My problem with Melancon is that I want my natural RP (ie, the ones that aren't starters that turn into relievers because they couldn't make it as starters) to absolutely dominate at the lower levels, and while he was effective, he was not dominant. He should have more strikeouts than he did with the way he's being hyped, and that troubles me. The hits numbers are impressive, and I like the groundball rate, but I'm interested to see how he'll translate to the majors and if he'll miss as many bats effectively. He really needs to maintain that K rate to be a good reliever, and I'd feel much more comfortable if there was a bit more room for error in that department.

9. LHP Phil Coke (C+) - Phil Coke is almost 27 years old and yet he is the #9 prospect in the Yankees system. He had an extremely strong debut, allowing just 2 BB while fanning 14 in 14 innings as a Yankee. He's almost a sure bet to open next season with the big club as the second lefty out of the pen with Damaso Marte. Coke's had some injury concerns so the age concerns me less, as he's about equally developed as younger players are. Coke doesn't BB anyone (about 6%) and struck out a lot of batters last season (about 26%). The knock on Coke, besides his age and it's addictive properties (heh, I'm funny), is that he does not really have a plus arsenal of pitches to support is great success last season. Even in light of that, though, a lot of prospects on list will fade out before they get even close to being a useful relief pitcher, so the Yankees will take it.

10. RHP Alfredo Aceves (C+) - Alfredo Aceves is another almost 27 year-old prospect that got some late inning time with the Yankees after signing as a NDFA before the 2008 season. Aceves had a decent debut in 2008 with the big club, going 30 innings while allowing 25 hits, walking 10 and fanning 16. The K/BB ratio is an uninspiring 1.6, but the 5 fewer hits than innings pitched are fairly impressive. Of concern is the FIP, which was 4.83, as opposed to his 2.40 ERA. He had a very unsustainable .233 BABIP which may have been the reason for that success. He's got four league average pitches and should be at least marginally useful as either a swing-man or back of the rotation starter. His K% was around 20% in the minors and his BB% was around 6%, so he should improve on his peripheral numbers next season, but he will regress because of that FIP. He had freakishly low BABIP's at all of his levels last season, so I think a good deal of his performance may be luck and he is due to regress.

With that said, Aceves does have good control and the ability to miss bats, at least in the minors, so some regression might still make him a league average starting pitcher, and in a system bereft of concrete talent, that's got some value. I'd suggest Aceves work on keeping the ball low in the zone (GB% was well below 50% throughout the minors) and try to keep his control at the levels he had it in the minors. I don't think his stuff will allow for a high K rate in the bigs, so he's going to have to learn how keep the ball in the park to be successful.

Sleeper Alert: RHP Brett Marshall - Brett Marshall is one of my favorite Yankees prospects, largely because he was drafted in my Fantasy Dynasty League this offseason with a late pick. Marshall has plenty of hard offerings (96 MPH 4-Seamer, 92 MPH 2-Seamer with good movement, 86-88 MPH hard slider) but he has not developed a secondary pitch, whether a curve or change, that will allow for major league success at this point. He was a 6th round pick in the 2008 draft that signed for well over slot-bonus (825,000) and has the best shot of being a front-end starter of the pitchers the Yankees drafted this time around. He's got some mechanical problems, including the dreaded "Inverted-W" which could lead to injury, and he's also very raw. He barely pitched in high school, and at 6' even, he does not have the ideal pitchers body. I like the pick because I think, at worst, Marshall is a very useful back of the bullpen type unless he blows out his arm and fades out completely. If he can develop smoother mechanics and a decent amount of secondary stuff to handle his hard-arsenal, he could be a front-end prospect. Between his junior and senior years of high school, he gained 10 MPH on his fastball, so you can see how much this player has grown very recently.

Also worth noting are RHP Jeremy Bleich, RHP Humberto Sanchez, RHP Alan Horne, and youngsters LHP Wilkins De La Rosa and RHP Areudys Vizcaino.

Honorable Mention/Other Grade C Types for Red Sox

SS Argenis Diaz - May not hit enough to be particularly useful, but he is a plus-plus defender and that should make him useful enough, at least as a backup. On a team that values defense and has a deep lineup, Diaz could make a play as a bottom of the order player with some ability to slap some hits. He's certainly better than Tony Pena, Jr.

RHP Kyle Weiland - Interesting pitcher taken in the third round who had better success in the minor leagues this season than in college. Yet another college reliever that the Sox tend to turn into a SP, Weiland has a great fastball but needs to work on his secondary stuff, which both flash average with potential right now. Had an absolutely dominating debut (60 IP, 36 H, 68 K, 10 BB) but I want to see more.

RHP Felix Doubront - This guy has been around forever, pitching in Lo-A, A and Hi-A over the last four seasons, but he's still young. as he'll be 21 all of next season, and he's shown good control (115 K-24 BB in 118 IP last season). Unfortunately for Doubront, this is the first year he's had that good control since a 2005 performance in the VSL, which means he's a real question mark and headed to Lancaster next year. If he can continue that performance he'll crack the top 10, probably.

Others: SS Derrik Gibson (athletic SS, power?), 3B Will Middlebrooks (been around forever, will he develop?), INF Ryan Dent (Same as Middlebrooks), CA's Mark Wagner, George Kottaras, Dusty Brown (Are any good enough to be major leaguers?), RP Richie Lentz, Hunter Jones (will either reliever get a shot with the Red Sox deep pen?)

Red Sox Prospects, 11-20

11. CF Ryan Westmoreland (C+) - Westmoreland did not play in 2008 because he was a late sign, and received almost 2M to do so, which was significantly over slot bonus for his selection spot. Westmoreland is regarded as the five-tool package, with excellent defensive instincts in centerfield, plus raw power and an outstanding approach to hitting. He is extremely fast and extremely intelligent, and could shoot up with this given a strong debut. He was paid mid-first round money in the fifth round, so it seems clear to me that he has the potential to be an elite prospect when he plays.

12. RHP Bryan Price (C+) - Bryan Price is my favorite type of draft pick, and is similar to Nick Hagadone in that he is a reliever being converted to a starter. He has an excellent fastball/slider combination and if he can develop a third pitch he will be extremely effective as a starter. He has limited innings on his arms and his floor, that of an effective reliever with powerful stuff, is very impressive. His ceiling is as a front-end starting pitcher, and for that I am pretty excited. Despite allowing more hits than innings pitched in his debut, Price effectively kept the ball on the ground, sporting a 55% ground ball percentage, and he was victimized by a high BABIP of .362, which is supported by an impressive FIP of 3.13 (as opposed to an ERA of 4.03). His K% was 23.4% and his BB% was just 5.2%, and while he is old for his level he has enormous potential if he can keep those ratios up. If he performs this well next year, he is easily a B prospect and likely on the fast track to the majors.

13 SS Oscar Tejeda (C+) - I had the opportunity to take a couple of guys that I thought had lower upsides but who were more advanced here, but I prefer Tejeda's potential to be an impact performer. He does not have the present power that someone like Almanzar has, but he could grow into it, considering he's just 19 and already 6'1, and just 177 pounds. Tejeda is just not very good at baseball right now, but he's got tools galore and can man the position defensively, which speaks volumes to that potential. His fielding percentage is not great, currently, but that should improve as he ages, as he'll be only 19 in either A or Hi-A next season. On the bright side, his LD% was 16% last season, which shows the potential for improvement, and his BABIP will likely rise with his quality speed. He is a career .275 hitter despite being young for his level. He's got plenty of time for those tools to translate, and he ranks here based on his enormous potential if they do. I trust the Red Sox developmental system on this one.

14. RHP Stephen Fife (C+) - Fife is an extreme GB pitcher drafted from Utah in the third round last season. He's got five pitches that he uses including two fastballs and he has an arm that hasn't seen a lot of ware, since he wasn't a starter at Utah until 2008, instead working in middle-relief. At Lowell (Low-A), Fife had a 25.8% K rate and a 6.3% BB rate, and he had an astounding 66% GB rate. He does not have the raw stuff of Price, who ranked above him, but he has good enough stuff where he's not limited by it. He allowed 10 fewer hits than innings pitched last season and has a projectible build. If he can maintain this, he'll move up the prospect ranks. One concern is that he has quite a bit of torque in his delivery, by reports, and that may lead him to some injury concerns in the future. Still, he looks like nice value at this point in the draft.

15. RHP Stolmy Pimentel (C+) - Pimental followed up a strong 2007 performance in the DSL with an equally strong debut with lo-A Lowell. He turned 18 before the season, and has a nice, projectible frame at 6'3 and 190 pounds. He BB'd just 6.7% of the batters he faced and fanned 24.3%. Unfortunately, a couple of drawbacks were that he featured a GB% below 50% (46%) and had an FIP of 4.02, which indicates he was probably a bit lucky with fielding or other measures, considering his actual ERA was 3.14. He maintained a very low BABIP of .273 and that should certainly rise in time, which will bring his ERA closer to his FIP. I'd expect some regression from last season's performance, but even with regression, he's a prospect to watch and could shoot up this prospect list after the 2009 season, probably with Greenville as a 19 year old.

16. 1B Anthony Rizzo (C) - You won't see Anthony Rizzo on most prospect lists for the Red Sox this high, considering he was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins Lymphoma earlier this season, but if he can make it back and return to strength, he has enormous upside for the Sox. Rizzo is currently 19 and he has obliterated the minor leagues in his span, thoguh he's strictly a 1B that is somewhat limited in athleticism, but his bat will play at the position. He only got 83 AB's in 2008 before he was diagnosed, but he was tearing up A Ball as an 18 year old, hitting .373. I'm usually cautious with injuries and small sample size projection, but the Red Sox system really tapers off after you get past Pimental. He signed above slot in the 14th round and I think his bat can carry him to the big leagues when he's healthy. He'll have to show more refinement and he'll be less young for his level when he gets back, but waiting on this guy could really pay off.

17. OF Jason Place (C) - Compared to Jeff Francouer when the Red Sox picked him in the first round two years ago, Place has absolutely flopped. He has a career 28% K% and his BB% has dropped each of the last three years, from 14 to 10 to 8%. In other words, he looks like a bust. Let's keep in mind, however, that Place turned 20 during the season last year, in Hi-A. He's got another two years at Hi-A before he would be considered old for that level. For the third consecutive year, Place raised his IsoP (.143, .145, .187), though he continues to struggle with making solid, consistent contact (LD% of just 10% last season). He is still extraordinarily raw, but he has the best raw power of anyone in the system and he can play CF defensively, though he is not the plus defender that Lin or Kalish are. Still, that kind of power in CF would be welcomed, as that's the kind of CF that Big Market teams should be targeting. He'll need to put the bat on the ball and make solid contact at a higher level of success in order to rise, but he's still got plenty of time to do it and there is way too much time to give up on him.

18. CF Peter Hissey (C) - Yet another natural centerfielder, Hissey lacks the plus raw power projection that Westmoreland has, which precludes a higher grade at this time. Hissey is a plus defender in CF with a very advanced approach at the plate and a strong, competitive nature. He's athletic with room for growth, though there are doubts about how much power he'll really be able to add. If he can make himself into a plus-defender there really won't be too much concern over his lack of power, as he'll be able to save some runs with the glove. He's going to have to slug enough (.450 range) to be a major league prospect in the future, though, but he has time to do it.

19. SS Yamaico Navarro (C) - Navarro has an excellent glove, and that alone should be able to carry him up the charts, though I'm personally not yet convinced on him, much like I am with Exposito. Navarro saw an enormous hike in his overall statistics playing at Lancaster, raising his AVG, OBP and SLG nearly .50 points each, which means it's largely based on the park. He opened the season in A Ball as a 20 year old, which is fine ARL, and he hit .280/.341/.415, which was almost identical to his Lo-A performance the previous season. His BB% remained a steady, average 8%, and his K% was an unacceptable 20.6%, considering his lack of power, also remaining steady. When he moved to Lancaster, there were a lot of inflated numbers, but the one thing that stands out is the cut in the K% from 20.6% to 15.3%. If he can continue to cut that K% he has the chance to make it as a borderline starter as a middle infielder with his excellent defense. At the very least, he stands the chance to be a solid utility player, but I like his upside more tha Argenis Diaz, who also has an outstanding glove, but who is without the offensive upside.

20. CA Luis Exposito (C) - Exposito was a 31st round pick in 2005 at the catching position and has advanced surprisingly well considering his draft position. After struggling grossly in 2006 and 2007, Exposito demonstrated impressive power in 2008, though some of that was a result of playing in Lancaster in 2008, which we can see as a recurring trend. I believe his improvement was real, judging by his performance in A Ball, and his still strong ARL (Age Relative to League). Exposito was 21 for the full season and was still young for each level he played in. His BB% was a fairly ugly 4.7% between A and A+, and his K% was 19.5%, equally ugly. He's a catcher, though, and that means a lot. He hit 21 homers between A and A+, an enormous step forward for a catcher. He raised his average higher than his career levels, largely because of an advanced BABIP, yet his LD% dropped to 16 and 14% after being between 19 and 21% in his previous two years. His IsoP raised from a high of .077 to .233 over the season, which is just an enormous leap. He has what is easily the most fluke potential here, because I have no idea if this power spike is for real, particularly with half of the season in Lancaster. We need a bigger sample size on him, because he doesn't have the contact rate to be hitting as well as he was, though the power spike could be real.

Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

1. 1B Lars Anderson (A-) - An 18th round pick in the 2006 draft, Anderson was signed for well above slot-money, and currently draws comparisons to Twins 1B Justin Morneau. In terms of plusses, Anderson has plenty. He hits the ball hard, with line-drive percentages of 19 and 21%, respectively, between A+ and AA last season. He hit very well in Lancaster (A+, notorious hitters park), sporting a .919 OPS and a .406 OBP, but he backed that up with a solid performance in AA Portland, posting a .962 OPS and a .436 OBP. He's only hit 29 minor league home runs in his career, but he hit nineteen of them last season. By all accounts he is a plus-defender with good range and should be an asset at first with his glove. His K% for a power hitter was not unacceptable at 17.6% in A+. His ARL was absolutely fantastic, as well, as he didn't turn 21 until after the season ended.

By contrast, Anderson's K% in AA was a dangerously high 26.4% (limited PA, just 163) and his BABIP was an unsustainable .435. His BABIP is helped by the continued strong LD%, but I'm interested to see how he performs in a full season out of Lancaster, particularly in terms of power. He did keep his home-run rate up when moving to AA, which is a strong sign. My other concern is of no real concern to Anderson, but a concern about the ability for a "big market" team, like the Red Sox, to be patient with a player who plays the easiest position to find a league average player. If Anderson pulls a Daric Barton on the Sox in year one of his debut, which shouldn't be for at least another year, will the Red Sox be able to stand by him? A Patient Red Sox team could find themselves with a 25-30 HR slugger with a .300/.400/.500 line, but that HR power may take longer to come up than people would like. Strong power development in 2009 would put Anderson at the top of prospect lists everywhere.

2. RHP Michael Bowden (B+) - Michael Bowden epitomizes projectible pitcher at this point of his prospect career. It's really no fault of his own, but I think I share the consensus opinion of being more excited about his paper numbers than the performance I saw in the big leagues with my own two eyes. Bowden does not have ace stuff and has what I would consider to be a bit of a herky-jerky delivery, though not in the sense that he is a significant injury risk. On the bright side, in his second exposure at AA after finishing 2007 there, Bowden was very strong, allowing 32 fewer hits than innings pitched (104 innings, 72 hits allowed). He sported a near 5-1 K-BB ratio (101 K-24 BB) and his K/9 was approaching 9. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing just 5 HR's during that time. He was still young for the level, considering this was his second-exposure there, and it should not be held against him. His BB% was about 3.5%, on average, last season, which is excellent.

Bowden is trending toward an extreme fly-ball pitcher, with a 43% GB% at AA and an 37% GB% at AAA, and that is dangerous playing in a hitters park in Fenway (though it's become more neutral of late). I like my pitchers to sport GB% of at least 50%, if not higher. The low HR rate in the minors is thus not sustainable. His K% seems to dwindle in his first experience at a level (At AA, it went from 19.6% to 25%, we'll see if that happens at AAA). In order for Bowden to make a successful jump in Boston, it's clear he's going to need some time (he looks to be someone who develops better with more experience) and he's going to have to figure out how to get more sink on his balls, or he's going to be punished by a high-slugging percentage. With that said, again, the ARL and the pedigree are both excellent and he's likely to figure it out, eventually, but I think his GB% and K% are going to hold him back from ever being a true front-end guy (think upside of a #3 SP).

3. RHP Daniel Bard (B) - Bard represents a significant dropoff from Michael Bowden in this third spot, and is much closer to the players that will rank behind him. What makes Bard desirable at this spot is his raw stuff (his fastball is touching 100 MPH out of the bullpen) and his current level. He finished the season at AA and while he did not master it, he should be in Pawtucket soon, if not at the beginning of next season. Bard fanned an absurd 43.8% of the batters he faced at A ball and walked just 3.5%, though that is a bit of a statistical oddity considering his difficulties with throwing strikes. He walked almost 20% of the batters he faced in his debut year of 2007, though most of those walks were as a starter, and he has since been converted to the pen. His GB% as a reliever was approaching 60%, which is outstanding, but his control regressed in his move to AA, where he walked 12.5%, though he still fanned a very impressed 31.5% of the batters he faced.

There is less to worry about as a reliever, and that has probably helped to harness Bard's very strong stuff, but I can't say I'm excited about spending a high draft pick on a RP. With that said, if Bard can harness his control at higher levels, and that is an enormous if, he is absolutely capable of being a dominant, impact reliever at the back-end of a bullpen with the ability to regularly miss bats. He strikes me, on a smaller scale, of being like the Shark on the Cubs, but without the big major league performance. If he can't throw strikes, though, he's just going to wind up being a guy that bounces around because of his arm (see Aardsma, David). If the Red Sox could get value here, I'd look to move Bard. He has the potential to slightly improve his stock with more refined control, but at the core, he remains a reliever with question marks, and relievers are so inconsistent I wouldn't hedge my bets on him.

4. LHP Nick Hagadone (B-) - It is my opinion that, if healthy, Hagadone would be ahead of Bard and potentially ahead of Bowden, as well, though you have to be impressed by Bowden's overall resume. Hagadone is a lefty with plus, hard stuff, and he's struckout 45 in just 34 minor league innings, though that is also the problem. In two years as part of the Red Sox system, the 2007 second-rounder just has not amassed the innings he needs to sore up the system. He had Tommy John surgery, which is one of the most successful surgeries for pitchers at this point, assuming they have to have one. Hagadone was a reliever in college and has enormous upside with limited innings on his arm. Unfortunately, he'll be 23 and still in A Ball when he comes back, so he's going to have a lot of time to make up, though the ARL is less of a concern considering the injury. His scouting report suggests he has three plus pitches and the ability to throw all three for strikes, so it's really just a matter of time before he starts using that. In a system with a lot of depth but a lot of question marks, I like Hagadone's upside the best after the front three.

5. CF Ryan Kalish (B-) - Ryan Kalish, for me, is the best of the many young OF prospects that the Red Sox possess, though he does not have the best ceiling. Kalish is not projected to be the best power hitter of the bunch (that award probably goes to Josh Reddick or Jason Place), but he currently has the best approach of the Red Sox outfielders and plays CF, as opposed to a corner spot. In A Ball, the age-appropriate level for the 20 year-old, Kalish had a BB% of 12.6% with a K% of 18.3%, which shows a pretty advanced performance for a youngster. He had a success rate of 82% in stolen bases and played a flawless defensive CF, though he was moved off of it for times because he was playing with a superior defender, Che-Hsuan Lin, at times.

Kalish did not make excellent contact in A Ball, posting just an 11% LD%, which needs to rise if he's going to develop the power he'll need to to be successful in the big leagues, as he posted a line of .281/.376/.356, with only 20 XBH in 360 AB's. That number jumped to 29% in a very strong sample size in the aforementioned Lancaster in High A, but his plate discipline regressed as a result. In general, before Lancaster, he was hitting the ball on the ground at least 55% of the time, helping him to use his strong speed. He's not young for his level, which means that he has a chance of limiting his ceiling because of the lack of power, but I think it will come in time. He's also not limited to a corner outfield position, like Reddick appears to be.

6. RF Josh Reddick (B-) - With the exception of a brief time at AA with a strikeout percentage of 19%, Josh Reddick has traditionally controlled the strike zone very well, striking out between just 12 and 14% of the time, though his BB% has never been higher than 9.1%, and that was in a small sample size. Reddick is very young, as he turned 21 before last season and has already seen time in AA, and he has plenty of time to fill out his 6'2, 180 pound frame and develop more power. He hit 23 HR's between High A and AA last season, though he spent most of the time in that hitter's haven at Lancaster. Scouting reports indicate he can get a bit pull-happy and that he has been somewhat resistant to the Red Sox philosophy of patience, and it would be a shame to sacrifice his contact skills and his now power in exchange for some more walks.

Reddick needs to continue his power production because he appears relegated to a corner OF spot, which is why I gave Kalish an edge. While Kalish absolutely needs to develop more power as well, Kalish can play with limited slugging percentage and quality on-base skills as a CF/leadoff type. By contrast, Reddick needs to continue his control and improve his power swing in order to make it as a corner OF in a big market. His upside is better than Kalish's but his path will be more difficult.

7. RHP Junichi Tazawa (B-) - Tazawa is a very interesting case, and one of the big offseason signings for the Red Sox. He's just 22 and is said to have an average fastball that has the potential to be a plus pitch, and very advanced secondary stuff. He did not play in the best league in his own country last season, so it's pretty hard to suggest anything based on his dominating numbers last season. His fastball sits about 90-94 but it would seem that he sets it up well with two very good secondary offerings. He's very young and should have a year or two, if it's necessary, to pitch in the minor leagues and get used to the different ball size and the different type of hitter he'll face here. I can see why the Red Sox liked him, though. His fastball has the chance to be a third plus pitch and he has a strong chance of taking advantage of hitters who struggle with off-speed stuff. Considering the prices of back-end starters, which seems to be Tazawa's floor of his fastball doesn't develop any further (Jeff Suppan got 10M), getting Tazawa for three million as a 22 year old is an excellent investment. He's going to have to develop much better control than Daisuke, though, because he does not have that kind of raw stuff.

8. SS/RHP Casey Kelly (B-) - Casey Kelly got over two million dollars to sign over-slot as the 30th overall pick in the 2008 draft, and has a very intriguing package of tools to justify that kind of commitment, though he struggled mightily as a position player in his debut. Most people agree that Kelly would be better served on the mound, and while he has high upside as a SS with strong defensive skills and a raw power bat, most people think he has front-end stuff as a potential pitcher, though he's very raw. The only way Kelly would sign is if the Red Sox gave him a shot as a positional player, however. In 2009, it's expected that Kelly will pitch for 100 innings and then move back to SS. It may hinder his development a bit as a pitcher, but he's so young that he's pretty far away no matter how you slice it.

His stuff includes a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a 12-6 curveball and an advanced change-up, which is all you need for a front of the rotation starter. He's very athletic and I think that goes a long way in the development of a pitcher, as well. With his current size, Kelly has the opportunity to add some velocity to his fastball, as well. I think Kelly's upside is only topped by Anderson's, and I suspect when Anderson graduates that Kelly will be the #1 prospect in this system. I'm happy he struggled so much with contact in his debut because it would be a shame not to take advantage of his skills on the mound.

9. 3B Michael Almanzar (B-) - Almanzar was a pretty significant International FA signing as a SS, though he's already too big for the position and has been shifted to 3B. He had 13 errors in 60 games at the hot corner, and while that's not fantastic, it's not terrifying, either, considering his youth. Almanzar just turned 18 in December, which means he'll be 18 all of next season, as well. In the GCL, he posted an impressed 8.1% BB rate and a respectable 15.3% K rate, as well. He was bumped past SS Low A Lowell into A Greenville, and he struggled there, seeing his BB rate drop to 3.5% and his K rate rise to 26.5%, but he was playing against players two-three times as old as he was. His LD% was strong at both levels (16% in the GCL, 20% in A) but his overall numbers regressed with his BB ratio when he moved up, falling from an .886 OPS with a .414 OBP and .348 AVG to a .552 OPS, with just a .238 OBP. Still, there's very little cause for his concern, as he could fail against next year in A Ball and still be an intriguing prospect that was young for his level. His BABIP was very high in the GCL at .407, so I wouldn't expect to keep that up, but his raw power potential and the approach he showed in the GCL could mean very exciting things for Almanzar. Almanzar is, IMO, a better prospect than Anthony Hewitt, who was the toolsiest player in the 2008 draft, and Hewitt went 24th overall. Almanzar would have gone higher than that were he draft eligible.

Don't expect an immediate return from him, though. While he's got plus-plus power, a very strong arm and an advanced approach for his age, I'd be surprised if he didn't anything before he turns 22, which is four years from now.

10. Che-Hsuan Lin (B-) - Che-Hsuan Lin is going to have an enormous spike in his prospect ranking next year, simply because he's going to be in Lancaster and he'll hit for more power, which is the one tool that Lin currently lacks. Lin has gold-glove potential in centerfield with excellent speed, range and arm. He is the best defensive player in the system and one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors. He has an unbelievable stolen base skills, stealing 50 of a possible 62 bases, and he was the Futures Game MVP when he bashed a HR to win the game for the World Team. Lin's problem is that he hit just .249 last season, so while his peripherals were solid (BB% of 10%, K% of 14%), he could not take advantage of them because he struggled so much in hitting for average. Considering his low K%, though, I think that's something that's going to improve. He needs to improve on his power, too, as he hit just 5 HR's all of last season. Keep in mind, however, that Lin was 19 for all of last season play in A Ball, so he was extremely young for his level, though not quite as young as Almanzar.

Playing in Lancaster is going to really help his power, and might help his average, so we won't know if it's a development and advancement, or if it's the park. I think it will be the latter, though, considering he cut his K% by 6 % last season and raised his LD% by 5%, though it's still only 14%. I think he'll be a top 5 Red Sox prospect next year, justified or not.