Limited in high-upside talent
Here's the problem. Snider's 20 and he's not ready, even if he made his debut. His K%'s over his levels were as follows: 33.3%, 27.4%, 22.8%. 28.8%. He did cut his K rate as he moved up, but it's still very high. If he doesn't make enough contact, he won't be taking enough advantage of his profilific power potential. There are likely a ton of swings and misses, too, because in Hi-A, AAA and MLB his BB% never crossed 7.6%, though it was an impressive 12.3% in AA, where he had the most PA. On average, though, those low rates concern me, as he was at 9.5% in 2007. 4 times over the last two years, Snider has posted a BABIP of at least .371, and that seems hard to sustain at higher levels considering how often he swings and misses. By all accounts, Snider does not project to be a plus defender, which means his bat will need to carry him at either LF/RF or at DH.
Snider has plus, plus raw power and has shown it in game situations. He has performed admirably at levels where he is extremely young for the competition average. He is already at least an average major leaguer just based on his power tools. Snider should project more walks as teams work around his power, but I suspect he'll be seeing lots of breaking balls and pitches out of the zone until he learns how to control the strike zone better. His BABIP, and thus, his AVG, are going to drop some as he continues to play, which means his evolution in strike-zone discipline will determine how good of a hitter he will be. If he evolves into a more aware hitter, the sky's the limit with his power. Even if he doesn't, his power will stay play at the major league level. His floor is solid, his ceiling is enormous.
2. LHP Brett Cecil (B+) - Brett Cecil is a second player who really rose through an otherwise depleted Blue Jays system in 2008. Cecil is an intriguing combination of quality stuff and an ability to keep the ball on the ground, all from the left side. In 117 innings last season between Hi-A and AAA as a 21 year-old, Cecil allowed 100 hits, fanned 129 and and walked 41. His K% was around 26% and his GB% was around 63%. He walked around 8% of the batters he faced. Aside from his 10 inning stint at Hi-A, Cecil's BABIP was either .310 or .314, which is sustainable considering his repetoire. At all three levels, his FIP was 3.31 or under. He allowed just 6 HR's. He was certainly young for his level. There are some concerns that Cecil will have to move back to relief because he started there, and some concerns about his fastball, which sits between 88-92, though he does have a dominant slider. With better stuff, Cecil would an A-, but we'll have to see if he can continue to sustain this stuff.
3. CA J.P. Arencibia (B) - Arencibia is a pretty product for someone who played college baseball, but by all accounts he improved his defensive skills during the 2008 season. Arencibia was drafted as an athletic catcher with plus raw power. He split last season between Hi-A (.904 OPS) and AA (.798 OPS) as a 22 year old, so he was age appropriate at Hi-A and young for AA, though not extremely so. Focusing on the plusses first, Arencibia posted IsoP's of .245 at Hi-A and .214 at AA, both very impressive for a C. He struck out 17 and 20% of the time collectively, which is far from elite but more tolerable for a catcher with that kind of IsoP. His BABIP's were reasonable, at .311 and .344 respectively, particularly considering he's not a clogger on the bases. He made decent hard contact with an LD% of 15%, though that dropped from 19% in his debut, though his IsoP raised by almost .100, so he'll take the trade. He caught about 33% of the base-stealers, which will play at his position with his stack.
The big problem, for me, with Arencibia, is that he's walking between 4 and 6% of the time, and that's really not acceptable for any level. If he's going to walk at that small of an amount, he'll have to maintain his IsoP in the .200 range and he'll have to cut his K's. If he can walk a bit more, he has a bit more room for error. Still, as a catcher, his power is a real plus and can make him an asset.
4. 1B David Cooper (B) - Cooper was behind fellow draftees at first-base like Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak and Eric Hosmer, but he carries quite an interesting package, as well. He is very advanced in his approach at the plate and has at least plus raw power, though he is limited defensively at the position. Cooper moved from Lo-A to Hi-A in his debut, posting an OPS over .900 at the first two stops before finishing at an .808 OPS in Hi-A, all as a 21 year-old. Cooper featured a cumulative 9.8% BB% while posting a K% of just 15%. His IsoP was just .170, so that will need to improve, as will is his inconsistent LD%, which ranged from 19% to 8%. Still, he hit over .300 at all three stops, and twice over .340. His BABIP was at least .360 at all three levels and twice over .400, so that may be a bit high, but it's clear Cooper can hit. Whether the power comes along as expected is another story, but I like his ability to make contact (hopefully better contact in time), which gives him a chance to take advantage of his plus-power potential, even if he hasn't already.
5. 2B/3B Scott Campbell (B-) - An Australian signee by the Blue Jays, Campbell is old for his level, but it is considered acceptable for how raw he was when he came over. Campbell can play 2B/3B, but he's clearly suited for second considering his lack of power. He is a typical Blue Jays prospect, with great control of the strike zone but somewhat limited upside. He has never struck out more than he walked, last season posting a 66/63 BB/K ratio with an .825 OPS and a .125 IsoP, the best of his short three year career. His BABIP is at sustainable levels (.339 this year) and his LD% rose to a career best 21% last season, so he's definitely improving his good contact rates, which coincides with his improvement in his IsoP. His BB rate was 13.6%, and it's going to have to me, because he's not going to slug at a high level in the major leagues. What Campbell should do is put the ball in play and get on base at a useful rate as either a utility player or a second basemen. He may play at 3B if his defense is good enough.
6. 2B Bradley Emaus (B-) - Emaus is a similar player to Campbell but at a lower level, hence the lower grade. Like Campbell, he walked more than he struckout (60:56), but featued a BB% of 11.8%, as opposed to Campbell's 13.6%. Unlike Campbell, though, Emaus has the power projection that could make him an above average regular with his quality approach to hitting, and his ARL is solid, too. Sporting an IsoP of .163, he stands the opportunity to be a pretty good player, though again, just at 2B. Emaus ranks below Campbell simply because of his lack of a track record (Campbell's done it over three years) and his lower BB%, but the prospects are interchangeable and EMaus has more power potential.
7. LHP Bradley Mills (C+) - I think Mills is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors right now, hence my deviation from the normal grade on him.
8. LHP Ricky Romero (C+) -
9. SS Justin Jackson (C+) -
10. 3B Kevin Ahrens (C+) -
Sleeper: RHP Mark Rzepczysnki
Draft: OF Eric Thames
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