New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

1. DH Jesus Montero (A-) - Jesus Montero is an extremely impressive prospect and the only reason he's not receiving A- grades from other publications is because of a concern over the position he'll play. I think there is some fear that Montero will turn into a Max Ramirez type of player and start to hear some sneaking suspicions of the AAAA label, but Ramirez doesn't deserve those, and neither does Montero. As an 18 year old in A Ball facing pitchers two-three years older than him, Montero was extremely successful, posting a .326 average and a .491 SLG%. His K% was a very exciting 14.6%, and that should find potential to drop even further, and I'm really impressed by that number as an 18 year old. While Angel Villalona is younger than Montero as a 17 year old in A Ball, he struck out 25.8% of the time, so that's a pretty impressive number. You cannot scoff at the 17 home runs, either.

There are a few concerns, but they should be alleviated in time. Montero did not walk very much, posting a 6.5% BB rate. Still, his BABIP was a reasonable level considering his average, though possibly unsustainable at .358, and his LD% rose from 12% last year to 18% this season. He is WAY too big for catcher, and anyone still calling him a catcher have absolutely lost their mind. As an 18 year old, he's a monstrous 6'4, 225 pounds. He should fill out even more as time goes on, so he's probably a 1B/DH type, but his bat will more than play at either spot. In checking Montero's park effects, it may have helped his homers, but that's about it. When neutralizing for luck, Montero's stats remain very solid. I think Montero will be a top 15 prospect by next season and he is EASILY the best prospect in the system.

2. RHP Dellin Betances (B) - Betances has absolutely unbelievable stuff, but he has yet to put it together. His upside earns him this grade, as he is right up there with Montero in terms of impact ability, though he has proven less to this point. Injuries have seriously hurt his development, but he made an appearance in A Ball this year as a 20 year old, which means he's still Age Appropriate. He struckout 27.7% of the batters he faced in A Ball, walking 11.9% of them. His walk total is high but it might be a product of his lack of development, or it could be a product of his strikeouts, as he's getting a lot of people to chase. He allowed just 87 hits in 115.2 innings, though I have some reservations with his GB%, which was at 43%. His FIP was also 4.07, half a run higher than his ERA of 3.62. Still, his K/9 was well over 9, so there's a lot to like here. He'll need to work on keeping more balls on the ground if he wants to really improve, and perhaps cutting his BB rate as well, but there's a lot to like here.

In terms of scouting report, Betances throws the ball between 93-97 MPH and can often dial up for more. Betances also has a developing knuckle curveball and a raw changeup, and both are going to need to come on for him to get the most out of his stuff. Worst case, he could be a flame-thrower out of the pen, though that's tough with his somewhat questionable control. He may develop control issues naturally because he is huge (6'9). Give him time and that should work itself out.

3. CF Austin Jackson (B) - Austin Jackson is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors, in my opinion, and it's typical of the big market team (The Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury was similarly overrated). First and foremost, Jackson has plus-speed, and that makes him a threat to steal bases and to handle CF defensively. I am not concerned about his defense, however, as I included Che-Hsuan Lin and Ryan Kalish highly, but rather his ranking as a B prospect, which means that he is to have legitimate offensive potential. I'm just not sure that he does. After cutting his K% from 22 to 16% in a stint at A+, he raised it back up to 19% in his AA stint this year, though he was just 21 for that stint. Jackson is willing to take a walk, as evidenced by the 55 he took this year in 581 PA, which is what you'd like to see from a younger player at a higher level. You may see his strikeouts drop as he becomes more age appropriate for the level, but he still strikes me as being very raw in that regard.

The bigger concern for me is Jackson's lack of power. He has 26 career HR's in 1600 PA, which is pretty ugly for a potential 5-tool OF. Again, he's young for his level so that power may come, but those suggesting A- or B+ grades for Jackson seem a bit ahead of themselves. Jackson's stolen base numbers are also regressing, as he went from 37 two years ago to just 19 this year. His slugging percentage dropped from a cumulative .476 last season to just .419 this season. It appears to be that he is regressing but I do not want to jump ship because I'd like to see how he matures in other aspects of his game. He still hit .284 and posted a .354 OBP, both very impressive for a 21 year old in AA. In order to receive an elite ranking this year, though, he needed to continue his power production.

It seems to me that Jackson could be at risk of trending downward, but it wouldn't surprise at all if Jackson improves, particularly if the Yankees choose to start him at AA again, which is what I would do. He needs to develop more offensively before the Yankees think about calling him up. I'd also like to see him raise his LD% a bit, up from the 13% he had this year (which was up from the 11% he had last year).

4. RHP Andrew Brackman (B-) - I personally remember Andrew Brackman as a freshman backing up the stable of NC State big guys (including Ben McAuley), but he chose to sign with the Yankees and pursue a pitching career. Anyhow, Brackman has pitched exactly 2.1 innings of winter ball in his career, and yet I think he's the fourth best prospect in a pretty limited Yankee system. He's had all kinds of injury concerns, and the Yankees drafted him knowing that he would need Tommy John surgery. Before Brackman had to have the surgery, there was some question whether Brackman or Price would be the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. Brackman has a devastating curveball and a wicked fastball when healthy with a developing change-up that has a chance to be a third plus-offering. He is also enormous, at 6'10 and 240-70 pounds, depending on which database you take a look at. He's had injury concerns moving back to 2005, but he's extremely athletic and has shown a willingness to try and get himself healthy. If he can do that, watch out, this player could sore up the charts. He's got more upside than even Montero, and I like Montero a lot, so that's saying something. He pitched a bit in winter-ball in 2008, but he'll have a clean slate as a 23 year old in 2009 and he could be a great one if he can work it out.

5. CA Austin Romine (B-) - Romine is an interesting case of performance and projection meshing at a difficult position. By all accounts, Romine has a much better chance to stick at catcher, which is good, because his bat might not play at another position. In Romine's first exposure to minor league baseball, he hit an even .300 with a .344 OBP and a .435 SLG%. Interestingly, though, that first exposure came in A-Ball, which is pretty impressive for a 19-year old. He walked just 5.7% of his plate appearances, hence the low OBP relative to the BA, but he also struck out an impressive 12.4% of the times, meaning he was generally making contact, and good contact at that, with an LD% of 17%. He also hit 10 homers in 403 AB's, and considering his age for the level, that number might improve as well. Romine's biggest strength might be his arm, though, as he is considered to be an 80 on the 20-80 time in terms of his catch and release skills. He's a little raw behind the plate otherwise but should be able to stick there. He's projected to have at least average power, and we've already seen his good contact skills.

In my opinion, Romine is the exact type of player you'd like behind the plate as a big league club. He's athletic, he has the potential to put the ball in play and hit double-digit home runs, and he's going to cut down numerous runners with that arm. He's not flashy, but at a position where you'd have to pay a ton for Romine's type as a FA, I'd bet the Yankees are excited about his potential.

6. LHP Jairo Heredia (B-) - Jairo Heredia is a fairly intriguing prospect because of the differing opinion on his stuff. I've read some Yankee fans who suggest Heredia is a "meh" pitcher without plus stuff and a pitcher that is getting by with acumen. Others suggest Heredia has enough stuff to get by and very advanced feel for pitching, so we'll see which side is correct. Heredia is left-handed, keeps the ball on the ground (57%), strikes out batters (21.9%) and doesn't a decent, but not outstanding job with walks (9%). He was another 18 year-old in A Ball, so he is not yet age appropriate for his level and has room for growth. He has a little bit more leeway as a lefty who can get ground ball outs, though I am concerned with his FIP, which is 4.07, as opposed to his ERA, which is 3.25. His BABIP seems a reasonable .312, though. He allowed 3 less hits (99) than innings pitched (102.1). At least some of his many scouting reports suggest he has a fastball in the mid 90's coupled with a plus-curve and a developing change which could be a third-plus pitch, so there's reason to think he's got some potential to miss bats at higher levels. 2009 will be critical in Heredia establishing himself as a top 100 type prospect. He could just as easily fall of the radar if his stuff isn't up to par.

7. RHP Zach McAllister (B-) - McAllister is a heavy ground ball pitcher that has interesting stuff and stands to be an inning eater at the professional level. Indeed, McAllister combined for a 55.5% GB ratio between A and Hi-A as a 20 year old, so he's got a good ARL as well. He gets the majority of his outs on the ground, As he had a 1.48 GO/AO in his stint last season. That number will have to improve further as he moves up, because his K's per inning last year were not particularly impressive. He struckout just 115 in 151 innings, but amazingly, he walked just 21, which is good for a 3.4% BB rate. I would wager to guess that the reason McAllister's not getting even more ground ball outs is because so many balls are being put into play. He may have people jumping on earlier pitches because they know they're not getting a walk, so they're trying to elevate on pitches that are up in the zone. He only gave up 9 HR's, which is a bit of a surprise when you consider the GO/AO ratio isn't completely dominant, so that number should rise. His BABIP was a bit low (around .300) considering he doesn't strike a lot of players out, which indicates he was a little lucky and is supported by his FIP of nearly a run and a half higher at Hi-A (1.83 to 3.26).

In the end, I think McAllister is interesting because of his age at this level, his advanced understanding of pitching down in the zone, and his prominent control. If he doesn't raise his GO/AO ratio, however, he's going to start giving up more runs and that ERA is going to soar. I also question whether he's really the type of pitcher who's going to allow 19 less hits than innings pitched as he moves up in the minors. Still, he's got a package more interesting than any other Yankee at this point.

8. RHP Mark Melancon (C+) - Melancon is here because he is a relief pitcher that is close to the majors, but there's a big dropoff in where I consider McAllister and where I consider Melancon, nevermind the slight drop in grade. For a reliever, Melancon gets more outs on the ground than in the air, so that's valuable, particularly if he's going to pitch in the late innings. He's 23 and moved through three levels last season, so I should be able to sustain that as he moves further. He kept his WHIP under one (69 H and 22 BB in 95 IP) and he did strikeout 89 in 95 innings. My problem with Melancon is that I want my natural RP (ie, the ones that aren't starters that turn into relievers because they couldn't make it as starters) to absolutely dominate at the lower levels, and while he was effective, he was not dominant. He should have more strikeouts than he did with the way he's being hyped, and that troubles me. The hits numbers are impressive, and I like the groundball rate, but I'm interested to see how he'll translate to the majors and if he'll miss as many bats effectively. He really needs to maintain that K rate to be a good reliever, and I'd feel much more comfortable if there was a bit more room for error in that department.

9. LHP Phil Coke (C+) - Phil Coke is almost 27 years old and yet he is the #9 prospect in the Yankees system. He had an extremely strong debut, allowing just 2 BB while fanning 14 in 14 innings as a Yankee. He's almost a sure bet to open next season with the big club as the second lefty out of the pen with Damaso Marte. Coke's had some injury concerns so the age concerns me less, as he's about equally developed as younger players are. Coke doesn't BB anyone (about 6%) and struck out a lot of batters last season (about 26%). The knock on Coke, besides his age and it's addictive properties (heh, I'm funny), is that he does not really have a plus arsenal of pitches to support is great success last season. Even in light of that, though, a lot of prospects on list will fade out before they get even close to being a useful relief pitcher, so the Yankees will take it.

10. RHP Alfredo Aceves (C+) - Alfredo Aceves is another almost 27 year-old prospect that got some late inning time with the Yankees after signing as a NDFA before the 2008 season. Aceves had a decent debut in 2008 with the big club, going 30 innings while allowing 25 hits, walking 10 and fanning 16. The K/BB ratio is an uninspiring 1.6, but the 5 fewer hits than innings pitched are fairly impressive. Of concern is the FIP, which was 4.83, as opposed to his 2.40 ERA. He had a very unsustainable .233 BABIP which may have been the reason for that success. He's got four league average pitches and should be at least marginally useful as either a swing-man or back of the rotation starter. His K% was around 20% in the minors and his BB% was around 6%, so he should improve on his peripheral numbers next season, but he will regress because of that FIP. He had freakishly low BABIP's at all of his levels last season, so I think a good deal of his performance may be luck and he is due to regress.

With that said, Aceves does have good control and the ability to miss bats, at least in the minors, so some regression might still make him a league average starting pitcher, and in a system bereft of concrete talent, that's got some value. I'd suggest Aceves work on keeping the ball low in the zone (GB% was well below 50% throughout the minors) and try to keep his control at the levels he had it in the minors. I don't think his stuff will allow for a high K rate in the bigs, so he's going to have to learn how keep the ball in the park to be successful.

Sleeper Alert: RHP Brett Marshall - Brett Marshall is one of my favorite Yankees prospects, largely because he was drafted in my Fantasy Dynasty League this offseason with a late pick. Marshall has plenty of hard offerings (96 MPH 4-Seamer, 92 MPH 2-Seamer with good movement, 86-88 MPH hard slider) but he has not developed a secondary pitch, whether a curve or change, that will allow for major league success at this point. He was a 6th round pick in the 2008 draft that signed for well over slot-bonus (825,000) and has the best shot of being a front-end starter of the pitchers the Yankees drafted this time around. He's got some mechanical problems, including the dreaded "Inverted-W" which could lead to injury, and he's also very raw. He barely pitched in high school, and at 6' even, he does not have the ideal pitchers body. I like the pick because I think, at worst, Marshall is a very useful back of the bullpen type unless he blows out his arm and fades out completely. If he can develop smoother mechanics and a decent amount of secondary stuff to handle his hard-arsenal, he could be a front-end prospect. Between his junior and senior years of high school, he gained 10 MPH on his fastball, so you can see how much this player has grown very recently.

Also worth noting are RHP Jeremy Bleich, RHP Humberto Sanchez, RHP Alan Horne, and youngsters LHP Wilkins De La Rosa and RHP Areudys Vizcaino.