Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

1. 1B Lars Anderson (A-) - An 18th round pick in the 2006 draft, Anderson was signed for well above slot-money, and currently draws comparisons to Twins 1B Justin Morneau. In terms of plusses, Anderson has plenty. He hits the ball hard, with line-drive percentages of 19 and 21%, respectively, between A+ and AA last season. He hit very well in Lancaster (A+, notorious hitters park), sporting a .919 OPS and a .406 OBP, but he backed that up with a solid performance in AA Portland, posting a .962 OPS and a .436 OBP. He's only hit 29 minor league home runs in his career, but he hit nineteen of them last season. By all accounts he is a plus-defender with good range and should be an asset at first with his glove. His K% for a power hitter was not unacceptable at 17.6% in A+. His ARL was absolutely fantastic, as well, as he didn't turn 21 until after the season ended.

By contrast, Anderson's K% in AA was a dangerously high 26.4% (limited PA, just 163) and his BABIP was an unsustainable .435. His BABIP is helped by the continued strong LD%, but I'm interested to see how he performs in a full season out of Lancaster, particularly in terms of power. He did keep his home-run rate up when moving to AA, which is a strong sign. My other concern is of no real concern to Anderson, but a concern about the ability for a "big market" team, like the Red Sox, to be patient with a player who plays the easiest position to find a league average player. If Anderson pulls a Daric Barton on the Sox in year one of his debut, which shouldn't be for at least another year, will the Red Sox be able to stand by him? A Patient Red Sox team could find themselves with a 25-30 HR slugger with a .300/.400/.500 line, but that HR power may take longer to come up than people would like. Strong power development in 2009 would put Anderson at the top of prospect lists everywhere.

2. RHP Michael Bowden (B+) - Michael Bowden epitomizes projectible pitcher at this point of his prospect career. It's really no fault of his own, but I think I share the consensus opinion of being more excited about his paper numbers than the performance I saw in the big leagues with my own two eyes. Bowden does not have ace stuff and has what I would consider to be a bit of a herky-jerky delivery, though not in the sense that he is a significant injury risk. On the bright side, in his second exposure at AA after finishing 2007 there, Bowden was very strong, allowing 32 fewer hits than innings pitched (104 innings, 72 hits allowed). He sported a near 5-1 K-BB ratio (101 K-24 BB) and his K/9 was approaching 9. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing just 5 HR's during that time. He was still young for the level, considering this was his second-exposure there, and it should not be held against him. His BB% was about 3.5%, on average, last season, which is excellent.

Bowden is trending toward an extreme fly-ball pitcher, with a 43% GB% at AA and an 37% GB% at AAA, and that is dangerous playing in a hitters park in Fenway (though it's become more neutral of late). I like my pitchers to sport GB% of at least 50%, if not higher. The low HR rate in the minors is thus not sustainable. His K% seems to dwindle in his first experience at a level (At AA, it went from 19.6% to 25%, we'll see if that happens at AAA). In order for Bowden to make a successful jump in Boston, it's clear he's going to need some time (he looks to be someone who develops better with more experience) and he's going to have to figure out how to get more sink on his balls, or he's going to be punished by a high-slugging percentage. With that said, again, the ARL and the pedigree are both excellent and he's likely to figure it out, eventually, but I think his GB% and K% are going to hold him back from ever being a true front-end guy (think upside of a #3 SP).

3. RHP Daniel Bard (B) - Bard represents a significant dropoff from Michael Bowden in this third spot, and is much closer to the players that will rank behind him. What makes Bard desirable at this spot is his raw stuff (his fastball is touching 100 MPH out of the bullpen) and his current level. He finished the season at AA and while he did not master it, he should be in Pawtucket soon, if not at the beginning of next season. Bard fanned an absurd 43.8% of the batters he faced at A ball and walked just 3.5%, though that is a bit of a statistical oddity considering his difficulties with throwing strikes. He walked almost 20% of the batters he faced in his debut year of 2007, though most of those walks were as a starter, and he has since been converted to the pen. His GB% as a reliever was approaching 60%, which is outstanding, but his control regressed in his move to AA, where he walked 12.5%, though he still fanned a very impressed 31.5% of the batters he faced.

There is less to worry about as a reliever, and that has probably helped to harness Bard's very strong stuff, but I can't say I'm excited about spending a high draft pick on a RP. With that said, if Bard can harness his control at higher levels, and that is an enormous if, he is absolutely capable of being a dominant, impact reliever at the back-end of a bullpen with the ability to regularly miss bats. He strikes me, on a smaller scale, of being like the Shark on the Cubs, but without the big major league performance. If he can't throw strikes, though, he's just going to wind up being a guy that bounces around because of his arm (see Aardsma, David). If the Red Sox could get value here, I'd look to move Bard. He has the potential to slightly improve his stock with more refined control, but at the core, he remains a reliever with question marks, and relievers are so inconsistent I wouldn't hedge my bets on him.

4. LHP Nick Hagadone (B-) - It is my opinion that, if healthy, Hagadone would be ahead of Bard and potentially ahead of Bowden, as well, though you have to be impressed by Bowden's overall resume. Hagadone is a lefty with plus, hard stuff, and he's struckout 45 in just 34 minor league innings, though that is also the problem. In two years as part of the Red Sox system, the 2007 second-rounder just has not amassed the innings he needs to sore up the system. He had Tommy John surgery, which is one of the most successful surgeries for pitchers at this point, assuming they have to have one. Hagadone was a reliever in college and has enormous upside with limited innings on his arm. Unfortunately, he'll be 23 and still in A Ball when he comes back, so he's going to have a lot of time to make up, though the ARL is less of a concern considering the injury. His scouting report suggests he has three plus pitches and the ability to throw all three for strikes, so it's really just a matter of time before he starts using that. In a system with a lot of depth but a lot of question marks, I like Hagadone's upside the best after the front three.

5. CF Ryan Kalish (B-) - Ryan Kalish, for me, is the best of the many young OF prospects that the Red Sox possess, though he does not have the best ceiling. Kalish is not projected to be the best power hitter of the bunch (that award probably goes to Josh Reddick or Jason Place), but he currently has the best approach of the Red Sox outfielders and plays CF, as opposed to a corner spot. In A Ball, the age-appropriate level for the 20 year-old, Kalish had a BB% of 12.6% with a K% of 18.3%, which shows a pretty advanced performance for a youngster. He had a success rate of 82% in stolen bases and played a flawless defensive CF, though he was moved off of it for times because he was playing with a superior defender, Che-Hsuan Lin, at times.

Kalish did not make excellent contact in A Ball, posting just an 11% LD%, which needs to rise if he's going to develop the power he'll need to to be successful in the big leagues, as he posted a line of .281/.376/.356, with only 20 XBH in 360 AB's. That number jumped to 29% in a very strong sample size in the aforementioned Lancaster in High A, but his plate discipline regressed as a result. In general, before Lancaster, he was hitting the ball on the ground at least 55% of the time, helping him to use his strong speed. He's not young for his level, which means that he has a chance of limiting his ceiling because of the lack of power, but I think it will come in time. He's also not limited to a corner outfield position, like Reddick appears to be.

6. RF Josh Reddick (B-) - With the exception of a brief time at AA with a strikeout percentage of 19%, Josh Reddick has traditionally controlled the strike zone very well, striking out between just 12 and 14% of the time, though his BB% has never been higher than 9.1%, and that was in a small sample size. Reddick is very young, as he turned 21 before last season and has already seen time in AA, and he has plenty of time to fill out his 6'2, 180 pound frame and develop more power. He hit 23 HR's between High A and AA last season, though he spent most of the time in that hitter's haven at Lancaster. Scouting reports indicate he can get a bit pull-happy and that he has been somewhat resistant to the Red Sox philosophy of patience, and it would be a shame to sacrifice his contact skills and his now power in exchange for some more walks.

Reddick needs to continue his power production because he appears relegated to a corner OF spot, which is why I gave Kalish an edge. While Kalish absolutely needs to develop more power as well, Kalish can play with limited slugging percentage and quality on-base skills as a CF/leadoff type. By contrast, Reddick needs to continue his control and improve his power swing in order to make it as a corner OF in a big market. His upside is better than Kalish's but his path will be more difficult.

7. RHP Junichi Tazawa (B-) - Tazawa is a very interesting case, and one of the big offseason signings for the Red Sox. He's just 22 and is said to have an average fastball that has the potential to be a plus pitch, and very advanced secondary stuff. He did not play in the best league in his own country last season, so it's pretty hard to suggest anything based on his dominating numbers last season. His fastball sits about 90-94 but it would seem that he sets it up well with two very good secondary offerings. He's very young and should have a year or two, if it's necessary, to pitch in the minor leagues and get used to the different ball size and the different type of hitter he'll face here. I can see why the Red Sox liked him, though. His fastball has the chance to be a third plus pitch and he has a strong chance of taking advantage of hitters who struggle with off-speed stuff. Considering the prices of back-end starters, which seems to be Tazawa's floor of his fastball doesn't develop any further (Jeff Suppan got 10M), getting Tazawa for three million as a 22 year old is an excellent investment. He's going to have to develop much better control than Daisuke, though, because he does not have that kind of raw stuff.

8. SS/RHP Casey Kelly (B-) - Casey Kelly got over two million dollars to sign over-slot as the 30th overall pick in the 2008 draft, and has a very intriguing package of tools to justify that kind of commitment, though he struggled mightily as a position player in his debut. Most people agree that Kelly would be better served on the mound, and while he has high upside as a SS with strong defensive skills and a raw power bat, most people think he has front-end stuff as a potential pitcher, though he's very raw. The only way Kelly would sign is if the Red Sox gave him a shot as a positional player, however. In 2009, it's expected that Kelly will pitch for 100 innings and then move back to SS. It may hinder his development a bit as a pitcher, but he's so young that he's pretty far away no matter how you slice it.

His stuff includes a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a 12-6 curveball and an advanced change-up, which is all you need for a front of the rotation starter. He's very athletic and I think that goes a long way in the development of a pitcher, as well. With his current size, Kelly has the opportunity to add some velocity to his fastball, as well. I think Kelly's upside is only topped by Anderson's, and I suspect when Anderson graduates that Kelly will be the #1 prospect in this system. I'm happy he struggled so much with contact in his debut because it would be a shame not to take advantage of his skills on the mound.

9. 3B Michael Almanzar (B-) - Almanzar was a pretty significant International FA signing as a SS, though he's already too big for the position and has been shifted to 3B. He had 13 errors in 60 games at the hot corner, and while that's not fantastic, it's not terrifying, either, considering his youth. Almanzar just turned 18 in December, which means he'll be 18 all of next season, as well. In the GCL, he posted an impressed 8.1% BB rate and a respectable 15.3% K rate, as well. He was bumped past SS Low A Lowell into A Greenville, and he struggled there, seeing his BB rate drop to 3.5% and his K rate rise to 26.5%, but he was playing against players two-three times as old as he was. His LD% was strong at both levels (16% in the GCL, 20% in A) but his overall numbers regressed with his BB ratio when he moved up, falling from an .886 OPS with a .414 OBP and .348 AVG to a .552 OPS, with just a .238 OBP. Still, there's very little cause for his concern, as he could fail against next year in A Ball and still be an intriguing prospect that was young for his level. His BABIP was very high in the GCL at .407, so I wouldn't expect to keep that up, but his raw power potential and the approach he showed in the GCL could mean very exciting things for Almanzar. Almanzar is, IMO, a better prospect than Anthony Hewitt, who was the toolsiest player in the 2008 draft, and Hewitt went 24th overall. Almanzar would have gone higher than that were he draft eligible.

Don't expect an immediate return from him, though. While he's got plus-plus power, a very strong arm and an advanced approach for his age, I'd be surprised if he didn't anything before he turns 22, which is four years from now.

10. Che-Hsuan Lin (B-) - Che-Hsuan Lin is going to have an enormous spike in his prospect ranking next year, simply because he's going to be in Lancaster and he'll hit for more power, which is the one tool that Lin currently lacks. Lin has gold-glove potential in centerfield with excellent speed, range and arm. He is the best defensive player in the system and one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors. He has an unbelievable stolen base skills, stealing 50 of a possible 62 bases, and he was the Futures Game MVP when he bashed a HR to win the game for the World Team. Lin's problem is that he hit just .249 last season, so while his peripherals were solid (BB% of 10%, K% of 14%), he could not take advantage of them because he struggled so much in hitting for average. Considering his low K%, though, I think that's something that's going to improve. He needs to improve on his power, too, as he hit just 5 HR's all of last season. Keep in mind, however, that Lin was 19 for all of last season play in A Ball, so he was extremely young for his level, though not quite as young as Almanzar.

Playing in Lancaster is going to really help his power, and might help his average, so we won't know if it's a development and advancement, or if it's the park. I think it will be the latter, though, considering he cut his K% by 6 % last season and raised his LD% by 5%, though it's still only 14%. I think he'll be a top 5 Red Sox prospect next year, justified or not.