1. CA Matt Wieters (A) - Matt Wieters is the 1A to David Price's 1, and might be ahead of him a bit due to position, though both are extremely valuable. Statistically, Wieters was a beast. Between Hi-A and AA, Wieters walked 82 times and fanned just 76 times, all the while mashing 29 Homers. He hit a remarkable .355 between the two levels and and finished with nearly a .600 SLG%. He actually cut his K rate by 5% in AA, and he was young for the level. He made good contact, posting LD rates of 16 and 18%, respectively. It's possible a BABIP of .383 might be unsustainable in the bigs, but that's probably nitpicking. He threw out 37 of 94 basestealers, which is a number that the Orioles will happily live with. The Orioles just signed Gregg Zaun to a major league contract after unloading Ramon Hernandez, and do have Guillermo Quiroz, Chad Moeller and some other depth in the minors, so Wieters may not open with the club, but it's really only a matter of time. Bill James thinks that Wieters would post a .926 OPS if he played in the majors as a 23 year old. Disgusting. CHONE is a little more conservative, suggesting a .791 OPS, but that would still be incredible. Between Soto last year and Wieters this year, what a crop, though Wieters is a much better prospect long-term than Soto.
2. RHP Chris Tillman (A-) - I'm on of the bigger Erik Bedard fans on this planet, and think he's nothing short of elite when he's healthy, but Tillman is the third part of the five pieces that the O's got for Bedard (the others are CF Adam Jones, CL George Sherill, RHP Kam Mickolio and LHP Tony Butler). At least four of those five, and maybe all five, are going to have an impact on the Orioles within the next two years. That is larceny. Statisically, Tillman is very impressive, and is just 20 at AA, so the ARL is fantastic. He struckout 154 batters in 135 innings last season and allowed just 115 hits, leading to a 26.6% K%. He does have some red flags that preclude him from an A, however, and the main one is that he is a flyball pitcher, with a GB% of just 40% last season. He also walked 11.2% of the batters he faced, though that concerns me less considering his age and level. Even with the longball though, he has a plus arsenal with a hard fastball and a very good curveball, though he is still working on developing a third pitch, whether it be a splitter or a change. Tillman's got a projectible build at 6-5, 200 pounds and he's exceeded pre-draft expectations a bit. He's got front-line stuff for sure, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone he'll be an ace.
3. LHP Brian Matusz (B+) - Brian Matusz was the consensus top pitcher in the 2008 MLB Draft, though there was some question about how strong he was as that top pitcher. Matusz is an interesting lefty who can touch 94-95 with his fastball and who has plus secondary stuff, sporting excellent command with both his slider and his change-up. He can use a slider which works as a cutter to back players off of the plate, as well. He has a nice build at 6'5 and he has room to grow. There are some concerns about his fastball not being as high as it needs to be, but with the secondary stuff, it should work either way. Matusz seems like a very safe selection and a near sure-bet to make it to the Orioles rotation within a few years. I did not pitch in the minors last season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him debut at A or A+ if the scouting reports support it.
4. RHP Jake Arrieta (B) - Jake Arrieta is a smidge behind Tillman, but represents the third consecutive starter on this list with better than average stuff. Arrieta is two yeas older than Tillman and only in Hi-A, so he doesn't have the production at the age of Tillman, but make no mistake, Arrieta is still age appropriate for this level of competition. He struck out about 26% of the batters he faced last season and had a GB% of nearly 50%. He also struggled with walks, however, walking 11% of the batters he faced without the relative rawness of Tillman. His FIP was 3.65, so it was higher than his 2.83 ERA, but still acceptable. Arrieta has a low to mid-90's fastball with a very good slider, when working, and a developing change up. Moreover, he allowed just 79 hits in 113 innings in Hi-A, which allowed for his WHIP to stay at an above average level, even in light of the 51 walks. I'm a bit more concerned about Arrieta's control than I am about Tillman's, because Arrieta his older than Tillman by two years and at a lower level. I like Arrieta's potential to have at least middle of the rotation upside, if not better, but he'll absolutely have to throw more strikes in the future, or continue allowing so few hits (very unlikely) in order to be truly successful. Still, another intriguing arm to slot behind Guthrie, Matusz and Tillman.
5. OF Nolan Reimold (B) - Nolan Reimold should already be in the big leagues playing with the Orioles based on his age and current production, but the O's have been oddly patient with him. Reimold is a career .278/.375/.507 hitter in the minors, so he's more than proven his readiness based on those numbers. Injuries may have slowed him down a bit, but at 25, he needs to make it pretty soon and I'd be surprised if he didn't make his debut next season at some point, presuming his health holds up. He posted a .284/.367/.501 line last season with 25 homers and 63 walks. He is strictly a corner outfielder with his toolbox, but his skillset should hold up fairly well at that position. His BB% was a very impressive 10.8% and his K rate was an equally impressive 14%. His IsoP was a perfectly acceptable .214, as well. I think Reimold may have been a little bit unlucky, as well, as his BABIP was just .14 points higher than his AVG (.300 to .286). Either quite a few of his hits were home runs (possible, considering his 25 homers, but not likely), or a lot of the balls he was putting in play found gloves at a higher rate than most others (more likely). Part of the ball finding more gloves likely has to do with Reimold's low LD% (just 13%) and his GB% (37%). It sounds like he was hitting a lot of lazy fly balls which are easier to get under and get outs from.
In my opinion, Reimold is ready to be an effective big league OF at a corner position, and I do believe he is more than just a fourth outfielder. To be successful in the bigs he'll have to make more solid contact, but it's evident with his K and BB% that he's making plenty of contact. His GB% may have been a bit of a fluke, and his BABIP will surely go up if he hits .286 again, even with the same LD% and GB%, so his numbers should be sustainable at higher levels. He'll make a nice LF with Jones in CF and Markakis in RF, though Felix Pie and his defense may have something to say about that in 2009.
6. RHP Brandon Erbe (B-) - Brandon Erbe is riding a bit of a prospect rollercoaster, but it is finally on the upswing after a couple years of not redeeming his high esteem. Erbe was repeating Hi-A but he was also young for the level, at just 20. He's clearly behind the three pitchers listed ahead of him, but Erbe has a chance to make the rotation pretty potent at the back end. Statistically, he cut his BB% from 11.4% to 8% last season, and he raised his K% from 20.4% to 24%, closer to the rest of his career profile. He allowed 112 H over 140 innings, as opposed to the 127 H he allowed in 119 innings last season. So why the difference in performance? It's hard to say.
6. RHP Brandon Erbe (B-) - Brandon Erbe is riding a bit of a prospect rollercoaster, but it is finally on the upswing after a couple years of not redeeming his high esteem. Erbe was repeating Hi-A but he was also young for the level, at just 20. He's clearly behind the three pitchers listed ahead of him, but Erbe has a chance to make the rotation pretty potent at the back end. Statistically, he cut his BB% from 11.4% to 8% last season, and he raised his K% from 20.4% to 24%, closer to the rest of his career profile. He allowed 112 H over 140 innings, as opposed to the 127 H he allowed in 119 innings last season. So why the difference in performance? It's hard to say.
Let's look at the red flags here, and the reasons I won't go higher on Erbe than a B-. His FIP was 4.45 this season, and his ERA was 4.48, despite the good peripherals. His BABIP was an absolutely unsustainable .260, particularly when you look at his career marks and MLB league averages. His GB% dipped from 48 to 42%, and he allowed 20 HR's, sporting a 9% HR/Air ratio. I want to see an improvement in GB% and a normalized BABIP before I start moving Erbe into the class of Arrieta.
Erbe does throw hard and he is regarded as someone with good stuff and good control, it's not impossible that he could maintain solid numbers, but let's see how things normalize first.
7. RHP David Hernandez (B-) - I think David Hernandez is possibly if not probably one of the most underrated hurlers in the minor leagues. He flashes excellent stuff from the right side, though he's a bit on the short side at just 6'2, 180. He is a strikeout machine, sporting strikeout percentages of 24, 27 and 27.7% over his minor league career, which is a trend that will make prospect evaluators pretty happy. Folks are concerned with his walks, much like with Arrieta, as he moved from a 7.4% walk rate in 2007 to an 11% BB rate in 2008, this after posting an 11% BB rate in 2006. He doesn't have Arrieta's physical projection or Tillman's ARL, however, so the walks are more of a knock on Hernandez than the others. He doesn't have that kind of room for error. He is also bordering on an extreme flyball pitcher, as his GB% was just 38% last year, and it's never been higher. He allowed 39 few hits than innings pitched this season, however, and his BABIP was a bit better at .300, though still lower than career marks, so we're likely to see some regression in that regard. He's also 23 in AA, so he is, at best, age appropriate for his league. His FIP of 3.48 suggests a pretty solid pitcher, but it's hard to imagine that more of the flyballs he gives up aren't going to go out of the park (a seemingly low number of 4% went out last season). Still, even if Hernandez cannot get the control down or keep the balls from flying out at higher levels, he at least as a role as a reliever that can miss bats from the right side (and that might help to preserve his smaller stature, to boot).
8. 1B Brandon Snyder (B-) - Brandon Snyder was a very high draft pick of the Orioles a couple of years ago and was widely considered to be nearing bust status before a pretty prominent return to form. He was drafted as a catcher and that did not work out, but he seems to be fitting in as a power hitting first baseman who has real struggles on the defensive side of the ball, and thus might be relegated to DH. As a 21 year old in Hi-A (so still age appropriate for the level, if not a little young), Snyder posted an .840 OPS with a lot of reasons for encouragement. He made decent contact, cutting his K% from 24% to 17%, and from 34% to 17% over two years. His BB% was still an abysmal 6.1%, down from a sorry 8.8% of 2007, though up from the 5.7% he had in 2006. He continued his trend from 2007 of making good, solid contact, keeping his LD% at 17% after moving it up to 21% in 2007. He posted a .313 AVG with a somewhat unsustainable .362 BABIP, particularly when you consider his speed limitations. He raised his IsoP from .136 to .172, and with his build and projection, that number should continue to go up, which is largely why he has received a B- grade. With continued improvement in dropping his K% and raising his IsoP while maintaining a good average, Snyder could blossom into a pretty good 1B/DH prospect. The Orioles will take this over the potential bust he was two years ago.
7. RHP David Hernandez (B-) - I think David Hernandez is possibly if not probably one of the most underrated hurlers in the minor leagues. He flashes excellent stuff from the right side, though he's a bit on the short side at just 6'2, 180. He is a strikeout machine, sporting strikeout percentages of 24, 27 and 27.7% over his minor league career, which is a trend that will make prospect evaluators pretty happy. Folks are concerned with his walks, much like with Arrieta, as he moved from a 7.4% walk rate in 2007 to an 11% BB rate in 2008, this after posting an 11% BB rate in 2006. He doesn't have Arrieta's physical projection or Tillman's ARL, however, so the walks are more of a knock on Hernandez than the others. He doesn't have that kind of room for error. He is also bordering on an extreme flyball pitcher, as his GB% was just 38% last year, and it's never been higher. He allowed 39 few hits than innings pitched this season, however, and his BABIP was a bit better at .300, though still lower than career marks, so we're likely to see some regression in that regard. He's also 23 in AA, so he is, at best, age appropriate for his league. His FIP of 3.48 suggests a pretty solid pitcher, but it's hard to imagine that more of the flyballs he gives up aren't going to go out of the park (a seemingly low number of 4% went out last season). Still, even if Hernandez cannot get the control down or keep the balls from flying out at higher levels, he at least as a role as a reliever that can miss bats from the right side (and that might help to preserve his smaller stature, to boot).
8. 1B Brandon Snyder (B-) - Brandon Snyder was a very high draft pick of the Orioles a couple of years ago and was widely considered to be nearing bust status before a pretty prominent return to form. He was drafted as a catcher and that did not work out, but he seems to be fitting in as a power hitting first baseman who has real struggles on the defensive side of the ball, and thus might be relegated to DH. As a 21 year old in Hi-A (so still age appropriate for the level, if not a little young), Snyder posted an .840 OPS with a lot of reasons for encouragement. He made decent contact, cutting his K% from 24% to 17%, and from 34% to 17% over two years. His BB% was still an abysmal 6.1%, down from a sorry 8.8% of 2007, though up from the 5.7% he had in 2006. He continued his trend from 2007 of making good, solid contact, keeping his LD% at 17% after moving it up to 21% in 2007. He posted a .313 AVG with a somewhat unsustainable .362 BABIP, particularly when you consider his speed limitations. He raised his IsoP from .136 to .172, and with his build and projection, that number should continue to go up, which is largely why he has received a B- grade. With continued improvement in dropping his K% and raising his IsoP while maintaining a good average, Snyder could blossom into a pretty good 1B/DH prospect. The Orioles will take this over the potential bust he was two years ago.
I would like to see him be a bit more patient. He's making good contact and is really big, but 6.1% BB rate will not play well in the majors, even if he's striking out less.
9. 3B Bill Rowell (C+) - Similar to Snyder, Rowell has absolutely enormous potential with little results to show for it, especially recently. He's also been reported to have some attitude issues. His OPS has been dropping consistently, from .932 as a rookie all the way to .680 last season. Rowell's been on my radar for awhile because he was one of five players over the last four years to post an OPS over .700 as an 18 year old or younger in A Ball. That's an extremely impressive accomplishment, so his OPS drop didn't concern me last year, but the further drop concerns me this year, particularly when I hear about the attitude problems. Still, his upside his enormous. Writing off his unsustainable 2006 debut numbers (.430 BABIP, 22-27% LD%), Rowell raised his LD% from 12 to 14% in 2008, which is a positive sign. He also saw a .32 point dip in his BABIP, though probably to the more sustainable number of .332. His BB% rose from 7.9% to 8.8%, and his K% dropped from 26.9% to 25.4%, so there is progress being made, albeit small. His already falling IsoP dropped from .153 to .121, and that's just not going to cut it for the power hitter that Rowell was billed to be coming out of high school. For a guy without a ton of speed, a GB% of 62% seems awfully high, and may be the reason for the falling IsoP. He's not getting a ton of hits anyway, hitting just .251, but when he does get hits, there's an awful lot of singles there, what with a SLG% of just .372 and that small IsoP. He improved his fielding percentage at 3B up to 92.5%, much better than the 88.8% of 2007.
9. 3B Bill Rowell (C+) - Similar to Snyder, Rowell has absolutely enormous potential with little results to show for it, especially recently. He's also been reported to have some attitude issues. His OPS has been dropping consistently, from .932 as a rookie all the way to .680 last season. Rowell's been on my radar for awhile because he was one of five players over the last four years to post an OPS over .700 as an 18 year old or younger in A Ball. That's an extremely impressive accomplishment, so his OPS drop didn't concern me last year, but the further drop concerns me this year, particularly when I hear about the attitude problems. Still, his upside his enormous. Writing off his unsustainable 2006 debut numbers (.430 BABIP, 22-27% LD%), Rowell raised his LD% from 12 to 14% in 2008, which is a positive sign. He also saw a .32 point dip in his BABIP, though probably to the more sustainable number of .332. His BB% rose from 7.9% to 8.8%, and his K% dropped from 26.9% to 25.4%, so there is progress being made, albeit small. His already falling IsoP dropped from .153 to .121, and that's just not going to cut it for the power hitter that Rowell was billed to be coming out of high school. For a guy without a ton of speed, a GB% of 62% seems awfully high, and may be the reason for the falling IsoP. He's not getting a ton of hits anyway, hitting just .251, but when he does get hits, there's an awful lot of singles there, what with a SLG% of just .372 and that small IsoP. He improved his fielding percentage at 3B up to 92.5%, much better than the 88.8% of 2007.
Rowell's got plenty of time. He didn't turn 20 until after the season and he'll be 20 throughout most of next season, either repeating Hi-A or at AA. I wouldn't be too worried about Rowell unless he flops again next year, but he is going to have to hit at some point. He needs to continue to restore his LD% and work on hitting the ball in the air more, which should take advantage of his untapped power potential.
Of some concern is the fact that Frederick was a pretty significant hitters park last season, and of no help to Rowell's declining numbers. He's a guy to watch in 2009, both good and bad.
10. LHP Zach Britton (C+) - Zach Britton doesn't have nearly the panache of the other arms on this list, but what he does have his a modicum of consistency and success in a world of mostly projection. Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a GB% of 68%, and that will bode well for him as he moves up to higher levels. I would think he was a bit unlucky, allowing 6% of the flyballs he gives up to be homers, but he's not giving up a ton of flyballs, so it's not a huge concern. While he maintained his BB% of around 8%, Britton saw his K% rise from 13.2% in 2007 to almost 19% in 2008, a huge step forward for the lefty sinkerballer. Impressively, despite being a sinkerballer, Britton is not a finesse pitcher, hitting the low 90's with consistency and occasionally dialing it up as high as the mid-90's, which marks the second impressive hard-throwing lefty in the O's top 10 (they also have flamethrowing lefty Tony Butler, who has battled numerous injury woes).
10. LHP Zach Britton (C+) - Zach Britton doesn't have nearly the panache of the other arms on this list, but what he does have his a modicum of consistency and success in a world of mostly projection. Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a GB% of 68%, and that will bode well for him as he moves up to higher levels. I would think he was a bit unlucky, allowing 6% of the flyballs he gives up to be homers, but he's not giving up a ton of flyballs, so it's not a huge concern. While he maintained his BB% of around 8%, Britton saw his K% rise from 13.2% in 2007 to almost 19% in 2008, a huge step forward for the lefty sinkerballer. Impressively, despite being a sinkerballer, Britton is not a finesse pitcher, hitting the low 90's with consistency and occasionally dialing it up as high as the mid-90's, which marks the second impressive hard-throwing lefty in the O's top 10 (they also have flamethrowing lefty Tony Butler, who has battled numerous injury woes).
I've got some concerns about Britton on an otherwise impressive resume. His BABIP is absolutely unsustainable, at .250, particularly as a GB pitcher. He's going to allow a low of balls in play striking out just 114 in 147 innings, and there's no way that only 25% of those balls are going to find holes. His 117 hits in 147 innings is an entirely unrealistic expectation for him, and I'd expect an ideal scenario would see his hits and innings about the same. His FIP is a bit of a reflection of that, at 3.92, as opposed to his ERA of 3.12. It could be a reflection of his stuff, but with that kind of limiting though impressive K%, Britton won't be controlling hitters that well as he moves up. Still, a lefty with his skillset would be useful at the back-end of the rotation, and I think Britton has a good shot of making it there.
Sleeper: RHP Robert Bundy - Robert Bundy was the Orioles sixth round pick in the 2008 draft and has excellent projection and potential. Bundy is a big guy, at 6'2, 215, and he's projected to get bigger. That listed-weight may be on the conservative side. He barely played in 2008, but he received well over slot bonus to sign as a sixth rounder, and was widely considered as a first round prospect until he tore his ACL playing basketball as a senior and did not have the velocity that he normally did. Apparently, that velocity has returned, and a number of experts, including Kevin Goldstein, predict that his mid-90's heater may actually gain more velocity as time goes on. What impresses me with Bundy, however, is that he developed his secondary pitches as a result of being injured his senior year and not having the velocity one would expect. He also has excellent control, judging by his 6 BB in 54 innings as a HS senior, though it's hard to base anything on that considering he was facing pretty poor competition.
Sleeper: RHP Robert Bundy - Robert Bundy was the Orioles sixth round pick in the 2008 draft and has excellent projection and potential. Bundy is a big guy, at 6'2, 215, and he's projected to get bigger. That listed-weight may be on the conservative side. He barely played in 2008, but he received well over slot bonus to sign as a sixth rounder, and was widely considered as a first round prospect until he tore his ACL playing basketball as a senior and did not have the velocity that he normally did. Apparently, that velocity has returned, and a number of experts, including Kevin Goldstein, predict that his mid-90's heater may actually gain more velocity as time goes on. What impresses me with Bundy, however, is that he developed his secondary pitches as a result of being injured his senior year and not having the velocity one would expect. He also has excellent control, judging by his 6 BB in 54 innings as a HS senior, though it's hard to base anything on that considering he was facing pretty poor competition.
I think Bundy has the chance to soar up prospect charts as long as his great control doesn't lead to repeated longballs. There have been reports that Bundy has a hard time not throwing strikes leading to excessive hittability, so we'll have to see how that translates.
Sleeper 2: 2B/OF L.J. Hoes- L.J. Hoes is a second 2008 draftee that had an immediate impact in his debut. He was taking 81st overall in the 2008 draft and has a very interesting combination of speed and advancement at the plate. He's never going to hit for much power, but he stole 10 bases and was caught zero times in his debut. Most interestingly, Hoes walked 30 times in 159 AB's and fanned just 22 times, demonstrating that advanced approach at the plate. He was initially drafted as an OF, but the Orioles saw something in him that suggested he could man second base, though I'm not sure how likely that is. He struggled there defensively last season, and also struggled against LHP, though he won't face them nearly as much. If he continues to post impressive OBP's and steals bases, his two tools will play, though he needs to be able to make it at either 2B or CF for that to happen.
Potential Major League Contributors next season: RHP Bradley Bergesen (Does not walk or strike anyone out, does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and could be useful in a swingman capatcity), LHP Troy Patton (Coming off of a significant injury, was one of the best prospects the Astros had and he could be able to make a dent in the Oriole rotation with a strong spring), RHP Kam Mickolio (Should work as a RH Middle Relief option, came over in the Bedard deal), LHP Wilfredo Perez (Really good stuff as a power lefty reliever)
Others: 3B Tyler Henson, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Chorye Spoone (injury woes), OF Xavier Avery
Sleeper 2: 2B/OF L.J. Hoes- L.J. Hoes is a second 2008 draftee that had an immediate impact in his debut. He was taking 81st overall in the 2008 draft and has a very interesting combination of speed and advancement at the plate. He's never going to hit for much power, but he stole 10 bases and was caught zero times in his debut. Most interestingly, Hoes walked 30 times in 159 AB's and fanned just 22 times, demonstrating that advanced approach at the plate. He was initially drafted as an OF, but the Orioles saw something in him that suggested he could man second base, though I'm not sure how likely that is. He struggled there defensively last season, and also struggled against LHP, though he won't face them nearly as much. If he continues to post impressive OBP's and steals bases, his two tools will play, though he needs to be able to make it at either 2B or CF for that to happen.
Potential Major League Contributors next season: RHP Bradley Bergesen (Does not walk or strike anyone out, does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and could be useful in a swingman capatcity), LHP Troy Patton (Coming off of a significant injury, was one of the best prospects the Astros had and he could be able to make a dent in the Oriole rotation with a strong spring), RHP Kam Mickolio (Should work as a RH Middle Relief option, came over in the Bedard deal), LHP Wilfredo Perez (Really good stuff as a power lefty reliever)
Others: 3B Tyler Henson, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Chorye Spoone (injury woes), OF Xavier Avery
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