This system is sick!
There are a couple of concerns which makes me think he's behind Wieters. For someone of such acclaim, he allowed a fair amount of hits (92) relative to innings pitched (109). That's still very good, but if you've been reading my posts, I've illuminated a number of pitchers who have exhibited more dominance (Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman) in that category. Still, part of me chalks that up to moving four levels in one season and never getting truly acclimated. Price did not dominate AAA in any capacity before getting the call. He gave up four more hits than innings pitched and had a BB% of nearly 11 in 18 AAA innings. He was pretty unlucky there, sporting a .393 BABIP, so that may explain the hit percentage, but it sure looks to me like he wasn't quite ready to make the jump as a SP, even if he dominated coming out of the pen in the bigs. Price had a pretty lucky .238 BABIP in AA, so the amount of hits he should've allowed is somewhere in between his AA and AAA numbers. By all accounts, he was pretty lucky in AA and pretty unlucky in AAA, when looking at the FIP, though I mentioned the HR/AIR% being pretty unlucky as well in AA.
I have no doubt Price will be a dominant, #1 starter type in the near future at the major league level. I just think those that think it will happen next year might be in for a bit of a disappointment. There are enough red flags about his performance that make me think there might be rookie pitchers that perform better than him next season (Thomas Hanson, perhaps? Trevor Cahill, if he gets a call?) because Price hasn't had enough time in AAA to hone is arsenal. Still, Price is easily the best pitching prospect in the minors.
2. SS Tim Beckham (A-) - It's hard to put too much stock in Timothy Beckham's 2008 debut, as he was still very raw. He hit .243/.297/.345 with 43 K's and 13 BB in 177 AB's. He walked just 5.8% of the time and struck out 21.8% of the time (which is a decent number considering his age and suggests a lower rate in the future). He had a decent .102 IsoP for a young player, but like I said, I wouldn't put too much stock in any of those numbers right now. Beckham gets an A- grade because he was easily the best talent in the draft relative to position (Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez may be better hitters overall, but none can play the demanding position of SS). Beckham is regarded as having excellent bat speed, making solid contact despite some mechanical flaws that the Rays will have to iron out, and you can see that with his 15% LD% in his debut. Beckham is at least an average runner, if not a plus runner, and he stole 5 out of the 6 bases he attempted to steal in his debut. Despite being 6'2, by all accounts Beckham should be able to stay at SS and use his 5-tool talents at a premium position. Beckham does not have plus-plus raw power potential, but heas enough potential to be a 20-25 HR hitter with a well-rounded game. You can't expect too much from him too soon, but I would expect Beckham to follow in the foot-steps of B.J. Upton and Delmon Young and be advanced somewhat rapidly, despite his age. I'm not sure Beckham has the advanced approach of Upton or the natural hitting ability of Young, but I don't doubt he'll be a similarly useful player in the future.
3. CF Desmond Jennings (B+) - Jennings is a legitimate five-tool talent and a natural centerfielder, and as a result, one of my favorite prospects in baseball. The reason he is this low is because of repeated injury concerns. If Jennings can stay healthy, he will be an impact player at the MLB level. He only had 102 PA's this year due to injury, so I'm going to stray from talking about this season and just talk about his overall skillset. In three years in the minors, his BB% has risen from 8.9% to 13.1%, and his K rate has stayed right around 15%, which is excellent for a 21 year old. The injuries have limited his ability to have a strong ARL, but he'll be age appropriate for his level next season even if he opens at Hi-A. He has his LD% up to 17% and he seems to now how to use his speed, stealing 82 bases at a 79% efficiency. His power is still largely a source of projection, but I think it will come with the rising LD% and his approach at the plate. He's not going to hit 30-40 HR's, I'd wager, but he stands a chance to hit between 15-25 with a gaggle of other tools in the box. He seems to fit right in with the rest of the Tampa philosophy, and he'll make the bigs assuming he can stay healthy. A B+ is aggressive with Jennings because of the injury history, but I'm willing to bet he'll prove me right this upcoming season.
4. RHP Jeremy Hellickson (B) - A fourth rounder in the 2005 draft, Hellickson has demonstrated unreal control over the course of his career. He had 162 K's and 20 BB last season over 128 innings. He did allow 125 hits, but that may largely be as a result of his excellent control, being around the plate all of the time. He's small in stature, just 6-1, 185, and he was a bit lucky last season. In AA, when he allowed 64 hits in 76.1 innings, Hellickson had a pretty hard to maintain .291 BABIP, particularly as someone who is regularly around the plate. He walked just 1.7% of the batters he faced while fanning 28%. I think the amount of hits he gave up in AA, 84, over 75 innings, is a more reasonable expectation, though his BABIP may have been an unusually high .358, so his likelihood is somewhere in the middle, probably. If he can keep his hits allowed in line with the innings he pitches, he'll be a very effective starter. I've watched his pitching mechanics and he looks an awful lot like Brad Penny, but his stats remind me an awful lot of current Ray Andy Sonnanstine, though Hellickson may have better control and slightly better stuff (it's regarded as slightly above-average).
The concern for Hellickson is his extreme flyball tendencies, posting GB% of 47 and 42 at his two levels last season. He's still young for his level, but that doesn't seem like it's going to improve with age. He will be victimized if he becomes more hittable, because as more contact is put on the ball they are more likely to head out of the park. As we saw last year, his HR/AIR% was between 6 and 12%, which means he's going to give up the longball, and that's alright if he's giving up solo-shots. The concern with Hellickson will come if he continues to be hit as hard as he was in AA (84 in 75 innings, remember) or if he loses some of his great control (it's sitting in the almost unreasonable 3% territory right now for BB%). The flyball tendency coupled with the smallish stature and non-elite offerings prevent him from being higher than a B right now, but another solid performance will move him up to a B+ or A-.
5. RHP Wade Davis (B) - Wade Davis is kind of a polarizing pitcher for me, because a lot of what he does has to be discounted because of his age relative to his league. His somewhat fringy numbers (only at times) can be mitigated because of how young he is for the level. I'm speaking mostly about his 2008 campaign at AA. After finishing up 2007 with fanning 81 batters in 80 innings and walking 30 at AA, Davis returned to AA in 2008 and pitched, well, worse. In 107 innings he allowed 104 hits and fanned just 81 batters, good for a K rate of 17.8%, down from 23.8% last season and way down from the 27.8% of his earlier pitching career. His walk rate has also continued to rise, from 6.9% in 2006 to 10.9% at the close of 2008. I suspect he may have been disinterested in repeating AA, as his numbers at AAA when he got a promotion improved a bit, allowing just 39 hits in 53 innings while fanning 55. Still, like I said, the walk rate continued to jump. Of similar concern is the fact that Davis is trending toward a flyball pitcher, closing 2008 with a GB% of just 45%. His combined FIP last season was 4.07. His K% did move back up to 24.8% in AAA, though, and again, he was just 22 in AAA last season. Still, another bad year will see him drop considerably on prospect rankings in my opinion, and I'm going to grade conservatively on him right now.
6. LHP Jacob McGee (B) - Jacob McGee is the second player on this list with serious injury concerns, and those are coupled by some concern that he may be better suited for the bullpen. McGee is going to be coming off of Tommy John surgery, so you have to temper your enthusiasm a bit, but I like what he's done in his past and Tommy John has been a reliable procedure for awhile. Before injury woes hurt his percentages in AA in 2008, McGee struck out an eye-popping 29% of the batters he faced, on average. Even with the need for the Tommy John in 2008, he still allowed 12 fewer hiters than innings pitched, so he does an excellent job of missing bats. He does have flyball tendencies, though, and he also has control issues, posting a walk rate of nearly 14% in 2008, which is why some have though he may be better as a swing and miss type reliever that can work the late innings. It certainly would reduce the stress on his arm.
Still, though, McGee is an enormous upside arm and if he can come back from the injury, which seems likely, given a lot of patience, McGee has a floor of a dominant left-handed reliever and a ceiling of a front-end starter, assuming he can keep his control at a reasonable level and avoid injury. Neither of those things are constants, though, considering the injury, so I think it's likely he'll be shifted to the pen. Again, this grade is an aggressive one, and it won't be backed up for most of 2009, but the stuff is there.
7. RHP Nick Barnese (B) - Nick Barnese falls into the next stable of young arms, with Kyle Lobstein and Matt Moore, who should help to replenish the system depth behind the likes of Hellickson, McGee, Price and Davis. Barnese has solid power stuff and has posted two consectutive quality seasons. While he could not maintain his small sample size BB% of 2.4%, Barnese posted a quality 8.9% BB Rate in Lo-A, all the while improving an already impressive K rate from 24 to 31%. He only threw 66 innings, but he fanned 84 during that process while allowing just 52 hits. He had a solid GB% of 55% and his BABIP was at a sustainable level. As good as his ERA was, at 2.45, his FIP was even better, at 2.40. There is little not to like about Barnese, other than how far away he is from the majors. I'm going to aggressively slot him at a B, as I see nothing wrong with what he's doing right now.
8. LHP Matt Moore (B-) - I personally think Moore is a bit behind Barnese in terms of development, almost solely because he repeated rookie ball last season. I realize Tampa is deliberate with their prospects, but I have absolutely no idea why he didn't get a sniff of Lo-A as a 19 year old. He made progress within rookie ball, cutting his absurdly high BB% from 17% to 8.9% (perhaps the reason he stayed in rookie ball) and raising his K% from 31 to 34%. He upped his GB% from 42 to 61% and held his BABIP at .262, which might not be so unreasonable considering he was a second year player pitching against first year players. That won't keep at higher levels, but it's not unreasonable here. His FIP was 2.45, which was higher than his 1.66 ERA, but still impressive. He allowed just 7 XBH, including no HR's, in those 54 innings he pitched.
Those numbers are great, but I can't go higher than a B- on a guy who is repeating rookie ball. Let's see if he can carry his improved control and GB% to higher levels. If he can, he'll move right up with Barnese, and he has an advantage on him, being left-handed.
9. SS Reid Brignac (B-) - Reid Brignac has been around forever, so excuse me if I'm sick of talking about him. To refresh, Brignac had an excellent debut season in 2004 and burst onto the prospect scene in 2006, when he hit .321/.376/.539 as a natural SS and a 20 year old in AA. He played all of 2007 in AA and struggled to a less stellar line, with a .761 OPS. Brignac posted his best BB% in his career of 9.2% and a wonderful K% of 15%, so he was certainly doing a better job of putting the bat on the ball. He was extraordinarily unlucky, however, with a BABIP in the .280's. His IsoP remained a constant at .172, so I wasn't terribly concerned and chalked the numbers up to bad luck, and remained pretty excited about him. He improved his fielding percentage, as well.
Something happened between making progress in 2007 and 2008. His LD% dropped from 19% in 2007 to 16% in 2008. His BB% dropped from 9.2% to 6.5%, and his K rate rose back to nearly 25%. I don't believe AAA pitching is THAT much more advanced than AA pitching, though he possibly struggled with breaking balls. He still kept a solid IsoP of .162, so it really looks like it was a matter of making solid contact with Brignac. His BABIP of .316 was still lower than career levels, so that may still rise. His fielding percentage also continued to improve at AAA, up to .970.
I don't see Brignac walking a ton, but he's going to have to walk more than 6.5% and K less than 25% if he's going to make it in the big leagues. He's not giving himself a shot to use his raw power by missing so many balls. He'll still be just 23 in AAA next year, so there's plenty of time for him to figure it out, but if he has a repeat of 2008, his stock will drop even further from the successful 2006 and 2007 seasons. Make or break time for Brignac (gosh that sounds like a drink).
10. RHP Jeff Niemann (B-) - Jeff Niemann is another one of the more underappreciated prospects in the game. He is major league ready and will likely break camp with the Rays because he is out of options. He had a decent debut in Tampa Bay, striking out 18% of the batters he faced as a reliever while walking 10%. Niemann's never been young for a level, but he's always been around age appropriate, where he should be. He had a dominant run in 2008 in his second time at AAA Durham, walking 9.1% while fanning 23.4%. He posted a 48% GB rate, so he's close to dead even, and that will play well enough in the pen, where his quality stuff will be further enhanced. Oddly enough, though, Niemann's FIP in 2008 was 4.12, as opposed to his first stay in AAA, where it was 3.62. The reason for that rise was his BABIP, which was a largely unsustainable .249. He got pretty lucky, but I liked the improvement in his peripherals, raising his K% by 2% while raising the BB% by only 1%. He did allow 32 fewer hits than innings pitched last year, but like I said, you can thank the low BABIP for that. He's probably right around the same amount of hits and innings pitched, when you adjust for luck. Indeed, adjusting for luck suggests he should have had a BABIP of .312 and 120 hits allowed in 129 innings, so he was not as good as last year seemed, though he was better than 2007 seemed.
Ultimately, I think Niemann could make it as a back-end starter with some dominant performances and some iffy outings where he is hurt by the long ball. With his power stuff, though, I think Niemann could make for a potentially dominant short-reliever, and I think that's where his future with the Rays is next year. He would probably be first in line to start if David Price falls short of making the squad or there is another injury.
Personal Favorite: CA John Jaso - With some apologies to backup catcher Shawn Riggans, John Jaso should absolutely be the backup catcher for the Rays next season. In his career in the minors, Jaso has exemplified what it means to control the strike zone, fanning 255 times while walking 251. At AA this season as a 24 year old (so he's a little old for the level, but as a catcher, that's probably OK...he was also inexplicably repeating the level after showing a mastery of it the previous season) Jaso walked 17.6% of the time while fanning just 9.4% of the time (62 BB, 33 K). He made solid contact, posting a 19% LD%. His SLG% did drop from .451 to .406 at the same level, but it seems clear that Jaso's power is more to the gaps than for the long ball, and it will be his on-base ability that ultimately carries him to the next level. In a stint at Durham to end the year (118 PA), Jaso continued to demonstrate excellent control of the strike zone (10BB/14K) and showed some added power, posting a .203 IsoP, up from .138 at AA. He was unlucky at both levels last year, posting BABIP's of .281 and .286 respectively, and yet still hitting .270 and .278. More hits will find the field in the future. Jaso's arm is not a strength, throwing out between 25-30% of the baserunners attempting to steal, but that will play enough if he can keep up that level of production. His bat, however, has the potential to be a real plus.
For what it's worth, CHONE projects Jaso at a .721 OPS, and Marcel at a .758 OPS, which is just about where guys like Saltalamacchia and Max Ramirez are projected.
Sleeper: CA/DH Jacob Jefferies - Jacob Jefferies is a second draft pick by the Rays from 2008, out of UC Davis. Jefferies has a very interesting bat, with excellent control of the strike zone and very solid contact skills offensively. Unfortunately, that is where his offensive skills end, as he does not yet have any projectible power, though there are some that believe he still may develop enough to hit 10-15 Homers, which would sit very well with the skillset he currently already has. He's about an average runner and is very strong at spraying line drives. Indeed, in his debut, he had an LD% of an impressive 21% and a K% of just 8.3%, though he only walked 8% of the time as well. Still, those numbers indicate he's putting the ball in play a ton and he's making good contact when doing so. His .341 BABIP is sustainable with that approach, I would suspect, and his .118 IsoP is actually more than I expected when you consider his approach. He finished with a .315/.379/.433 line in Lo-A, and would project to be at least a useful backup catcher even if he didn't develop any more power, were it not for one concern: his catch and throw skills.
Jefferies arm is extremely fringy, though he has made progress on receiving and blocking balls. He played a good deal of DH in his debut and if he's relegated to a position besides CA/2B/3B, he might have a hard time making it as a big-leaguer unless he develops power. He retired only 4 of 23 attempting base-stealers last season, and that will not play as a catcher. Still, he's young and has time to improve, and his approach on the offensive end is impressive.
Sleeper 2: LHP Kyle Lobstein - Not surprisingly, Lobstein was yet another draft pick in my fantasy draft, so I'm pretty familiar with him. Lobstein was an early second round pick signed for mid-first round money, and he's got a very advanced approach to pitching as a high-schooler, drawing numerous comparisons to former Angel and Indian Chuck Finley. He's got smooth, repeatable mechanics and a solid repetoire. He was throwing his fastball between 88 and 90 MPH last season, but he's been known to have more in that department, and he should settle in at a low-90's point with an opportunity to dial it into the mid-90's. My interest in Lobstein stems from the development of his secondary pitches, however. He has a curveball that is almost a 12-6 and has good break, and should be a plus-plus offering at the major league level. He's also got a solid-average change-up which has a chance to get better as he uses it more. He has very strong control for a youngster and has good mechanics to boot. Lobstein is athletic and played basketball as well in high school, so he's surprisingly raw considering the scouting report I just provided. As he pitches more, he should move onto this list quite easily, particularly with the likely graduation of Price and Niemann to begin the season.
Others maintaining prospect status of use are CF Fernando Perez, OF Reid Fronk, OF Justin Ruggiano and OF Ty Morrison, along with P Heath Rollins and P Mitch Talbot
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