A Prospect to Watch: Joseph Dunigan

I wouldn't worry too much if you haven't heard of Joseph Dunigan. I'm not sure many people have, but he's starting to get some attention now in his third year of pro-ball. The Mariners drafted Dunigan in the fifth-round of the 2007 Draft, and he posted mediocre at best numbers in his first two stints in the minors, between SS and A Ball. In his 2007 debut, he posted a .619 OPS, a 7% BB rate, a 30% K rate, an IsoP below 1 and a Line Drive Percentage below 10%. In 2008 in A Ball, he raised his OPS to a still a terrible .718 OPS with a 6% BB Rate and a 30% K Rate. He raised his LD% to a still pretty poor 11%, but he did raise his IsoP to .189, largely because of a pretty terrible batting average. He homered 14 times and stole 27 bases, showing some of the tools that caused the Mariners to draft him.

Dunigan was pretty raw coming out of college, and didn't have a ton of great numbers, but he was athletic and had a ton of talent. The power hadn't really been demonstrated yet, but there was plenty of speed and he had a quality make-up by most reports.

It appears that things have finally clicked for Dunigan, and he has started to assemble some of the tools that he has in his pretty sizable toolbox. As of today, Dunigan is hitting .351/.424/.692 with 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He has raised his walk percentage to over 10% and cut his strikeout percentage to a little under 21%. He is sporting a .344 IsoP. He plays in a significant hitter's park at Hi-A, so I believe his numbers are at least partially inflated, but he is hitting .277/.365/.506 on the road this season, as well, so it's certainly not all because of the home park, though 12 of his 16 homers have come at home.

Other causes for concern with Dunigan are an unsustainable .394 BABIP and a 10% LD%. One would think that he would be roping the ball everywhere, and it doesn't appear he's doing that. What does appear to be happening is that he is hitting a lot of balls in the air and they are carrying out of the park. His numbers are more regulated on the road, with a .338 BABIP and an 11% LD% (which is still low).

He's obviously not a finished product, and there are certainly reasons for pause, but it is clear that Dunigan is getting a better grasp on his tools and could turn into a monster if he can improve on his hard contact as the season moves on. For the month of June, his walk rate has spiked to 17% and his LD% to 13%, which is a good sign. He's not Mike Stanton (he's much older), but I think he may have a similar coming out party as the year progresses, and think he's interesting to watch either way. I, for one, think the breakout may be real.

Top 5 Targets for Red Sox in upcoming draft

Traditionally over the past few years, the Red Sox have targeted extremely athletic college prospects, signability sliders or highschoolers in the first round of the draft, with names like Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Jacoby Ellsbury and Casey Kelly coming to mind. I expect this year to be no exception. With that said, here are three (or 7) players I think the Sox will consider at 28 in the draft:

1. Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, GA -- I will preface this ranking with the fact that I think Tate has a less than 1% chance of being on the board here. He could go as high as #3 to the Padres, though word is they are moving toward Mike Minor or Aaron Crow. After that, there have been a lot of rumors about the A's looking at Tate, but since Tate is not a bonafide 5-tool stud like we've seen in past top HS selections (I should say, he's not exactly an Upton), and considering how much the A's poured into a now injured Michel Ynoa, I'm not so sure they take him. 

Anyhow, if he falls, he's clearly the choice at 28. He possesses all five tools, but there are questions about how much he will hit, considering just how raw he is, and how committed he will be to signing. There are also rumors that he's looking at a 6+M bonus to sign. 

2. Shelby Miller, P, Brownwood HS, TX -- Miller is largely regarded to be in the "second-tier" of a pretty impressive prep class, behind the group of Zach Wheeler, Tyler Matzek and Jacob Turner. He really is merely a power pitcher right now in the vein of Brett Marshall, taken last year by the Yankees, but he's got more upside than Marshall if he can develop an off-speed pitch. Roger Clemens has at least been floated as a comparison, if Miller can reach his upside. Bonus demands will push him down, but perhaps not to 28.

3. Tanner Scheppers, INDEPENDENT -- Scheppers was absolutely dominant at Fresno State, but there are huge questions about the durability of his shoulder. Still, there are few pitchers this close to the majors with Scheppers level of stuff and ability, and the Red Sox can afford to take a gamble on him if he falls this far. Of course, if he does fall, it will be because of injury concerns. I'll note that there is a similar chance with Kyle Gibson, MIZZOU, who was just diagnosed with a stress fracture in his arm. If he falls to 28, the Red Sox could take a shot on him, let him sit for the season and see what they have in 2010. 

I think one of these three/four are due for a major free-fall, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox were looking at one of them at 28. If that doesn't happen, I expect them to decide between Chad James, Everett Williams, Matt Purke and Jared Mitchell. 

Player Spotlight: Carlos Santana

So you must be thinking to yourself, why is Carlos Santana #17 on my list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, considering he was really just 1/2 the trade that sent world-beater Casey Blake to the Dodgers at the deadline? Well, for one, Santana plays a premium position. As you've seen with my aggressive rankings of players like Willin Rosario and Buster Posey, I don't think that it will take much for Santana to be at least average, and probably better, in the bigs. There was some question about whether he could repeat his performance of last season, and more question about whether he's legitimately a catcher, but I believe in him, and I'll tell you why below.

Santana was in the line of the many conversion projects that the Dodgers like to undertake, and played just 3 games at catcher over his first two years in the Dodgers system. Over those two years, he split time between rookie ball and Hi-A, oddly enough, and showed an advanced approach at the plate, walking and striking out 69 times each over 488 plate appearances. He showed enough power to stay at a middle infield position, but wasn't much of a corner player based on his level of production. He was mighty old for rookie ball, too. 

He spent 2007 learning how to catch, and his offense took a major hit as a result. He spent 2007 in A Ball and he combined to post just a .688 OPS, though he was hurt miserably by a .243 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which is supremely low for anyone, particularly a guy who is not of lead feet. There still wasn't a ton of power, but he was still raw and learning a new position, as catchers generally come along slowly. If I wrote about prospects then, I would have predicted a return to form in 2008.

He split 2008 between the Dodgers and Indians farm systems, and spent the entire time at Hi-A, slighting 8 AB's at AA to end the season. He busted out offensively, posting a .999 OPS with 21 HRs, and 85 BB to 89 K. He stole 10 bases and threw out 27% of the baserunners, which, while not great, is certainly passable. There was no guarantee that the power would return again in 2009, but Santana was a pretty sure bet to demonstrate excellent contact skills and a strong ability to take a walk, which is enough in itself to make it as a catcher in the big leagues. How he was thrown into a deal for a free-agent to be Casey Blake is beyond me.

He's opened 2009 by posting a .909 OPS in 109 plate appearances at AAA. He's got a .267/.404/.535 line so far, which is excellent when you consider that his Average on Balls in Play is a below-average .263. One would expect his batting average to normalize closer to .285, which would raise his numbers even further. He is walking nearly 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in less than 14% of them. He has posted career highs in Isolated Power and in Line Drive Percentage, which our both good signs. I just can't find something I don't like, as it looks like he's developing into a monster, elite top prospect. There is plenty of justification to move him up further on my list, and upon review I just might.

If you're interested in an analysis of Santana's swing, take a look at Baseball Intellect.

Top 100 Prospects after 1 Month

I'm aware this exercise is absurd, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that anyone currently in the majors is going to exceed their rookie limitations (Brett Cecil, Travis Snider, Rick Porcello, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Matt LaPorta, Derek Holland, Dexter Fowler, etc.)

1. C Matt Wieters

2. LHP David Price

3. OF Jason Heyward

4. P Madison Bumgarner

5. OF Michael Stanton

6. 1B Justin Smoak

7. C Buster Posey

8. RHP Tommy Hanson

9. RHP Chris Tillman

10. 1B Logan Morrison

11. SS Mike Moustakas

12. LHP Brian Matusz

13. 3B Pedro Alvarez

14. LHP Jarrod Parker

15. 3B Brett Wallace

16. SS Gordon Beckham

17. CA Carlos Santana

18. RHP Neftali Feliz

19. SS Tim Beckham

20. 1B Lars Anderson

21. RHP Michael Bowden

22. OF Andrew McCutchen

23. 3B Josh Vitters

24. RHP Jhoulys Chacin

25. CF Ben Revere

26. 1B Eric Hosmer

27. RHP Carlos Carrasco

28. CF Desmond Jennings

29. P Trevor Reckling

30. P Hector Rondon

31. DEF? Mat Gamel

32. 1B Angel Villalona

33. DH/C Jesus Montero

34. 1B Yonder Alonso

35. LF Andrew Lambo

36. CF Michael Taylor

37. RHP Ethan Martin

38. LF Daryl Jones

39. CA Tyler Flowers

40. 2B/1B/CA/OF Brett Lawrie

41. RHP Wade Davis

42. CF Aaron Hicks

43. RHP Jake Arrieta

44. RHP Tim Alderson

45. LHP Aaron Poreda

46. RHP Phillippe Aumont

47. 1B/OF Kyle Blanks

48. OF Michael Saunders

49. OF Josh Reddick

50. OF Michael Burgess

51. SS Reid Brignac

52. SS Adrian Cardenas

53. RHP Jordan Walden

54. RHP Cody Scarpetta

55. RHP Mat Latos

56. 3B Matt Dominguez

57. OF Fernando Martinez

58. CF Greg Halman

59. CF Austin Jackson

60. 1B Fred Freeman

61. DH Chris Carter

62. SS Brandon Crawford

63. 2B Chris Coghlan

64. LHP Christian Friedrich

65. OF Gerardo Parra

66. RHP Daniel Bard

67. RHP Ross Detwiler

68. RHP Kyle Drabek

69. C Jason Castro

70. RHP Kris Medlen

71. SS Alclides Escobar

72. C J.P. Arencibia

73. C/1B Max Ramirez

74. RHP Anthony Swarzak

75. C Adam Moore

76. Supergod Michel Ynoa

77. 3B James Darnell

78. SS Wilmer Flores

79. LHP Jeff Locke

80. LHP Casey Crosby

81. CF Ryan Kalish

82. LHP David Huff

83. CF Gorkys Hernandez

84. C Angel Salome

85. OF Dominic Brown

86. RHP Vin Mazzaro

87. 1B Anthony Rizzo

88. OF Aaron Cunningham

89. OF Nick Weglarz

90. RHP Brandon Erbe

91. OF Jose Tabata

92. C Willin Rosario

93. RHP Jeremy Jeffress

94. OF Jaff Decker

95. RHP Junichi Tazawa

96. LHP Cole Rohrbough

97. 2B Bradley Emaus

98. RHP Wilfredo Boscan

99. 1B David Cooper

100. RHP Chris Carpenter

Very tough near misses, and there are some definite problems with this list, but I tried not to over-react too much to 1 month of play. Chris Carpenter should not be in the top 100 right now, but I'm doing it so I look like a genius if he's there at the end. I'll talk about the list more tomorrow.

Chris Carpenter

No, not that Chris Carpenter. I'm talking about Chicago Cubs Third-Round Pick Chris Carpenter, a right-hander out of Kent State. In a 2008 draft that I would consider relatively weak in terms of the available power college arms (Shooter Hunt and his inability to throw a strike probably ranked tops, as I wouldn't consider Brian Matusz or Christian Friedrich in that vein), Carpenter stood out as an intriguing arm with a past example of success as a starter. Sure, you see conversion projects like Andrew Cashner (also taken by the Cubs), but there was little evidence at draft time to suggest he would be able to handle the conversion. 

A bit about Carpenter: He has had MAJOR injury concerns, and will turn 24 the day after Christmas in 2009. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005, and has dealt with other injury concerns that limited his experience in college. Indeed, because of those injuries, he was jut a junior coming out of Kent State, despite the age. He has two plus power offerings: a fastball that sits anywhere between 92-96 MPH, and a slider that has strong break and can be a second out pitch for him. His secondary stuff is pretty raw right now, but considering how little time he has had to develop it (he missed time in 2004 with surgery on his knee, wasn't healthy from the TJ until the 2007 season) I'm willing to wait to see if it will come. Some reports suggest the curve and changeup are starting to arrive, and it's clear that the Cubs think it will come.

In terms of 2009 performance, there are a lot of encouraging signs. Carpenter has not allowed an earned run in his last 17 innings, and has allowed just 12 baserunners (8 by the free pass) and fanned 17 in the process. He has kept the ball on the ground at a 54% rate, and he is striking out 27.8% of the batters he has faced, an excellent percentage. His ERA is is just 1.73, though there is some concern about his 3.59 Fielding Independent Pitching and a .172 Batting Average on Balls in Play, which both suggest he has been more than a bit lucky. I would expect more hits on balls in play, but considering the lack of contact on the season (29 strikeouts in 25 innings), hitters may be making pretty poor contact. You could also argue that he has too much experience for the level (he's facing players between 18 and 21, and he's 23) but I would argue his rawness more than makes up for it.

I would expect Carpenter to continue to miss bats as he moves up, though he'll have to refine his control, as he is still walking 13.8% of the batters he has faced. It's fine when he misses as many bats as he does, but when the batting average on balls in play normalizes, he'll need to cut back on those baserunners to keep those numbers steady. Still, in a 2008 draft with little in terms of dominant pitching talent, Carpenter stands a chance to be the impact guy from this draft from a pitching perspective (though his floor is pretty low as a starter). Even if his secondary offerings flame out, I think his two power pitches could work well in the back of the pen, too. Definitely keep an eye on him. 

Quantifying Jacoby Ellsbury's Value

As a fan of the Boston Red Sox, it is clear to me that fans love Jacoby Ellsbury because he is a handsome man and because he is an exciting ballplayer. His scouting report coming out of Oregon State as a first round pick in 2005 suggested that he was essentially a 4-tool player with blazing speed, but very little in terms of power projection. He put the ball in play and was a gap-type hitter who projected to be similar to Johnny Damon, but with less power. It was projected he would be a plus defender, but I always found it odd that Baseball America considered Ellsbury a top 20 prospect considering his lack of impact power. It was not like he had Dexter Fowler's power potential, but they were ranked similarly for awhile.

Between Ellsbury's 2005 stint at SS Lowell and his 2007 stint at AA Portland, Ellsbury routinely walked almost as much as he struckout, and he never struckout in more than 12% of his PA. He was excellent at putting the ball on the ground, never averaging less than 56% of the balls he put in play on the ground, and he continually raised his Line Drive percentage as time went on, as well, as it morphed from 10 to 14 to 16% on his rise to AA. Of course, with the exception of a very brief stint of power at AA in 73 PA, Ellsbury never posted an IsoP over .126, so he was living up to what could be expected. 

After those 73 PA in 2007 at AA, Ellsbury was pushed to AAA, where his IsoP dropped below .100 and his slugging percentage sat at just .380. Still, he maintained his K% at 11% and continued to put the ball on the ground effectively. He posted just a .740 OPS at AAA as a 23-year-old, but it was on-base heavy and the Red Sox were desperate to energize the team with a struggling Coco Crisp playing center at the time. Ellsbury delivered at a better clip than his performance at AAA, raising his IsoP all the way up to .156 and and maintaining a steady K% around 11%. Of concern was a diminishing walk rate, as he walked just 6.3% of the time he appeared, but it is hard to nitpick with a near .900 OPS in his debut.

2008 saw a not surprising return to the player who had some problems at AAA, and who also had some problems competing for a job with Crisp. After struggling much of the season, he managed to hit .280, but he struckout an alarming 13.2% of the time, which is very high for a guy that lives on making contact and using his speed. It did not help his cause that his BABIP was an unusually low .312 for a player with his speed. His IsoP dropped to .118, but that was largely in line with his minor league numbers. Additionally, Ellsbury's RZR rating would rank him as the eighth best centerfielder in baseball last year, in terms of outs that he recorded on balls in his zone. 

To me, Ellsbury is a case of managing expectations. He is not, and never was, worth the label he got as a "top" prospect. What he can do is provide you with above average defense, steal 50 bases with a high percentage, and get on base. The two things that Ellsbury needs to work on are putting the ball in play more consistently so that he can take advantage of what should be an improved BABIP, and he needs to control the strikezone. I'd like to see his K% numbers under 11 this season, and his BB% numbers approaching that, as well. He is not generating enough power to do otherwise. Still, he stands the potential to be a very useful player if he can improve on his .280 average, which he should. 

As a current update, he's hitting .289 right now, but the BB% is a very weak 5.2%. On the bright side, his K% is just 8.2%, so he's definitely putting the ball in play. Unfortunately, his GB% is at a career low 51% and his IsoP is at a miserable .067, which is a suggestion of no power at all. He looks like he has a Placido Polanco-esque line right now, and he's capable of more than that.

Cody Johnson

The Braves, more than most, are big fans of going the prep route, and they've grabbed a number of interesting players that way, with Jeff Francoeur, Jordan Schafer and uber-prospect Jason Heyward coming to mind immediately. They should reap similar dividends with early prep picks on Brett DeVall and Ezekiel Spruill in the 2008 MILB Draft, with DeVall seeming earily similar to Brett Anderson of Oakland.

One name that often goes forgotten in that list of early prep picks is OF Cody Johnson, who was a first round pick in 2006, and was widely regarded as more of a supplemental or second-round talent because of his rawness. What got Johnson selected was his plus raw power, and that continues to keep him afloat on the prospect radar, and has me intrigued by his upside as time goes on.

Johnson opened up 2006 in the Gulf Coast League, walking a respectable 9.8% and fanning a catastrophic 38.9% of his plate appearances. He hit just .184 and posted an IsoP of just .097, but again, he was just 18 and it was just 127 PA. In 2007, he again was in rookie ball, but this time it was with Danville, and he showed marked improvement. In 270 PA, he cut his K rate down to a still very high 26.7%, and he also raised his average to .304, helped largely by putting more balls in play and getting fortunate (.370 BABIP) on those balls in play. He raised his IsoP all the way to .325, which is extremely impressive considering he raised his LD% only one percentage point. He was also starting to get old for Rookie Ball by the end of it, as he was 19, but it was clear there was reason for excitement based on the 1.004 OPS and the 17 HR in half of a season.

2008 was a very controversial year for Johnson, as prospects began to sour on him based on his inability to make contact as a 20 year-old in A Ball. Indeed, his K% ballooned to 34.7% and his BB rate dropped 2 percentage points to 7.6%. He hit 26 homers in 511 PA, but he struckout 177 times and he hit just .252 despite a .346 BABIP, largely because he was not putting enough balls in play to take advantage of his massive power. On the bright side, he did boost his LD% from 18% to 20%, and his IsoP was a still strong though less impressive .225. For all the credit that Mike Stanton was getting as a draft pick from the Marlins, it seems to me that Johnson was unfairly penalized for having a fairly similar line to Stanton's, though Stanton did hit for a far higher average. I ultimately do not think there 2008 campaigns were THAT different, though it is easy to argue that Stanton's across the board tools (speed and defense, namely) help to separate him from Johnson.

I think it's important to remember that Johnson was 19 for most of his experience in A Ball, and will be 20 for most of his experience in Hi-A, as he doesn't turn 21 until late August. He's opened up with 7 homers in 71 AB's, while also fanning a concerning 37% of the time. On an exciting note, though, Johnson's BB rate has come back to form, walking 12.3% of the time in this small 2009 sample size, and he has maintained his 20% LD%. He is still just hitting .254, but that power is carrying him right now.

Johnson is ultimately a fairly interesting case. Depending on who you talk to, some people think that his ability to make contact is never going to be good enough to utilize his massive power at higher levels. It seems fairly clear that his 2007 season in rookie ball can be chalked up to becoming very familiar with a level that he was starting to be older than, and with some pretty good luck in terms of BABIP.  At the same time, his power is very clearly for real, and he has started to demonstrate better patience at the plate. I don't know if the increased patience is causing him to take more called third strikes or not, but he is at least making an effort to better understand the strike zone. My suspicion is that he struggles with off-speed stuff, but at his age, I believe that Johnson has the time to understand what he is looking for and learn how to put more balls in play. He is young enough where he could repeat Hi-A and still be considered a prospect, and with a guy with his power, he'll get every chance to be successful. 

He's not on Jason Heyward or Mike Stanton's level, obviously (and I don't mean to claim Heyward and Stanton are similar players, I just mentioned them in this post), but Johnson is not a guy you should sleep on, and should be worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. 

Jeff Francoeur

Jeff Francoeur is the poster-child for why you generally need plate-discipline to have long-term success in the big leagues. Unfortunately for him, he is also the poster-child for how quickly people can give up on someone with legitimate talent.

To start, Francoeur did not have a particularly large amount of developmental time in the minors before being rushed to the majors during the midst of a playoff run to help the Braves. He began his first full season (2003) in A Ball, and posted an impressive .769 OPS as a 19 year old. More impressive than the OPS is the fact that he struckout just 67 times in 567 PA, though he did walk just 34 times, as well. In 2004, the Braves bumped him to Hi-A, and he responded by posting an equally solid .788 OPS between Hi-A and AA, where he finished the season. Unfortunately, his peripherals worsened, fanning 82 times in 467 PA while walking just 22 times. He continued improving slightly, this time posting an .808 OPS in 367 PA in 2005, again at AA, before inexplicably being called up to the big leagues.

So, to recap, while Francoeur showed plenty of talent, the numbers of levels he mastered in the minor leagues matches the number of major league baseball games I've played in during my career. In fact, the early success Francoeur had in his big league debut in 2005 likely hurt his development more than it helped it, as he was not allowed to return to the minors to master AA or even AAA before becoming a full time outfielder. Even one more season in the minors could have helped his ability to identify pitches.

After posting an absurd 126 OPS+ as a 21-year-old in his debut, Francoeur posted just a .293 OBP in 2006, though he still slugged .449. There were reasons to expect the drop to the .293 OBP, from .334 in his debut. For one, he had a BABIP of .341, which while not generally high, is out of line with both his career numbers and for the numbers of someone who struckout in more than 20% of his plate appearances. He actually cut both his K's and his BB's in his first full season, and he was pretty unlucky, posting just a .286 BABIP. While he was not putting a ton of balls in play with a K% over 19%, he should have had a higher BABIP than that.

He impressively rebounded in 2007, posting a .788 OPS, largely as a result of walking 42 times, an improvement on the 23 walks he had in 2006. While he slugged just 19 home runs, a downgrade on the 29 he slugged in 2006, he raised his double total from 24 to 40 over that same span. He had the same rate, but was demonstrating quality defense, as he won a gold glove.

Everyone is familiar with his disastrous 2008, of course, as he posted a 72 OPS+ and walked three less times than he did in 2007. What is lost in the equation is that he struckout 18 fewer times and posted just a .277 BABIP. For how often Francoeur was putting the ball into play, an improved BABIP would mean a serious improvement of his line. In addition, he had similar GB% and LD% to his previous two full major league seasons.

Ultimately, Francoeur is a limited but intriguing player, and there are very strong indications that his 2009 line will be eerily similar to his 2007 performance, which makes him a useful player, at least in a platoon role, as his splits tend to favor facing LHP. His defense, at least currently, is at least average, and potentially above average. He has also cut his K's to start the season, fanning just 6 times to date over 72 PA, and he is hitting .327, despite just a .297 BABIP. Those numbers should actually be better than they currently are. Still, his OPS is barely above .700 v RHP, so he appears to be doing most of his damage against lefties.

Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard burst onto the scene as a prospect last season in an admittedly weak White Sox farm system, but is he for real? I’m going to attempt to prove that his success was at least partially real, and that his stint in the bigs in 2008 was better than it looked. In a weak farm system that has little behind Aaron Poreda, Gordon Beckham and Tyler Flowers, Richard has a chance to really shine if given the opportunity.

To start, baseball was not Clayton Richard’s main priority for quite awhile, as he signed on to be a quarterback at Michigan before being beaten out and trying out for baseball. He was eventually drafted by the White Sox for his potential, but he was pretty raw. In terms of repertoire, Richard offers a fastball and a reasonable, but unspectacular curveball, and he lives on a sinking fastball that induces a number of groundball outs. He is not going to miss a ton of bats with his offerings, so you can almost immediately eliminate him from front-of-the-rotation standing because of that, but it would be foolish to write him off entirely.

Richard was a middling prospect until 2008, as I mentioned, when he traveled across three levels culminating in a big-league trial with the White Sox. It’s important to look a bit deeper into his performance before 2008 however, as he may have been a bit better than some were giving him credit for. In his first two seasons with the White Sox (2005 and 2006), Richard never walked more than 7.1% of the batters he faced, and he maxed out at a still respectable 8.6% in 2007. Richard also never sported a groundball percentage worse than 57%, and never had a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of worse than 4.16. He also twice sported a BABIP of over .360 in that span, which is an unusually high number and suggests he was a victim of some potentially poor defense. Needless to say, while Richard’s reputation was as a middling prospect, there were some signs that he was better than he was regarded at the time.

In light of the fact that Richard was pretty raw when he started pitching because of his focus on other sports, it seems prudent to overlook his age relative to league. He was old for every level, but considering his experience, he was on the same curve as the others at those levels. He was likely punished by those who looked at his age and nothing else. Thus, despite his excellent numbers in 2008, they were largely written off because he opened the year at 24 in AA.

Let’s take a closer look at those AA numbers in 2008. He pitched 83.2 innings, allowing just 66 hits and walking just 16 batters, making for a WHIP of less than 1. He allowed just 2 homers, but sported a career low 52% groundball percentage and struck-out only 53 batters. Considering his FIP was 3.04 and his ERA was 2.47, and his BABIP was just .257, he was getting pretty lucky with regard to balls in play. Just 2% of the fly balls he allowed went for home runs, which was also an abnormally small number. Still, his strikeout and walk percentage were not that out of whack with his career numbers (4.9% BB/PA and 16% K/PA, both slightly better than previous years) and the improvement can likely be chalked up to having a better understanding of pitching with more experience.

After those 83 innings, Richard moved up to AAA and threw another 44.2 innings. He dropped his walk rate from 4.8% to 2.4%, and raised his strikeout rate from 16.2% to 19.8%. In this case, this represents a substantial in-season improvement against better competition, and thus, makes it less easy to chalk it up to improvement on Richard’s part. I think he was probably lucky here, and got hot over a relatively small sample size. His BABIP was abnormally low again, this time at just .230, and his FIP of 3.07 was again higher than his ERA of 2.45. Still, Richard kept 58% of the balls he allowed in play on the ground, and his HR/FB rate moved to a more reasonable 6%.

Based on the BABIP, FIP and rise in peripheral percentage, there is no doubt that Richard overachieved at both AA and AAA last year, but it was not because of being old for the competition or from pure luck. His normalized numbers would still put him at a fairly decent pitcher, and you can chalk up even some of the success to natural improvement and becoming more comfortable with pitching.

Regardless, Richard got the call to the bigs after those 44.2 innings in AAA, and saw 47.2 innings with Chicago. He posted a 6.04 ERA and allowed 60 hits in those 47.2 innings. Still, there are reasons to believe that he is better than that, and more than just a flash in the pan at AA and AAA. For one, Richard’s FIP was 4.13, which was almost two runs lower than his ERA. His percentages normalized, and he posted a 6% walk rate and a 13% strikeout rate, both in line with his standards for previous years. He also maintained a 53% groundball rate, and continued with the 6% rate on homers during fly balls.

So what do we have here? Well, let’s first reiterate that Richard is never going to miss enough bats to be a front of the rotation pitcher. Even when he was “lucky” in AA and AAA, he got by with avoiding walks and not by missing bats and overpowering hitters, so he is absolutely going to be someone that nibbles and pitches to contact. Even as he masters his craft further, Richard does not have the kind of stuff from the left side that will allow him to be a front of the rotation lefty, so you can dismiss any claims at John Danks right away.

On the other hand, Richard has a strong understanding of pitching to contact and knows how to keep the ball on the ground. He would be best served with an infield defense that has good range and can reach the bevy of grounders that he will produce, but he has strong potential to keep a team in games. He is going to get shelled if his control is off, because he does not miss bats, but he is not going to give up easy bases, either, because his walk percentage suggests he is around the plate regularly. Also of note is the fact that he is still learning how to pitch and should improve with more experience.

I think we can expect a performance similar to the one that Aaron Laffey gave Cleveland last season. Like Richard, Laffey keeps the ball on the ground effectively, doesn’t allow a lot of free passes and does not get a lot of outs by the strikeout. Laffey posted a 4.38 ERA and a 4.92 FIP in his 2008 debut, with almost 94 innings pitched. I expect Richard will do much of the same, given the opportunity. There is too much evidence in his past seasons to suggest that his 2008 campaign was a complete fluke (though it was probably at least partially one). Not everyone can be a number one starter, and Richard has the potential to provide 4-5 million dollars in positive value over the course of the season with those kinds of numbers.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

Limited in high-upside talent

1. OF Travis Snider (A-) - As a 20 year old starting the season in Hi-A, Travis Snider tore through AA and AAA while closing his season with a successful stint in Toronto. That sounds like an A prospect, and there's a lot to like, so let's focus on that, first. He posted a .278 IsoP while being slightly young for Hi-A in 66 PA, and then followed that up with a .199 IsoP in AA in 423 PA while being very young for the level. He posted a .172 IsoP in limited PA in AAA before posting a .165 IsoP in MLB, all as a 20 year old. Those are very interesting numbers and indicate an enormous level of power potential and an excellent chance to be a middle of the order slugger. His .804 OPS was very impressive in his stint with the Jays at his age, particularly with some of his limitations, which I'll get to in a bit. Snider raised his LD% progressively from 8% in Hi-A all the way to an unsustainable 29% in MLB, but even before that, he was at 15% and 21% at the two levels in between, which suggests he was striking the ball well. There's no doubt he should be mashing homers at a tremendous rate, as he should be a force in Toronto's lineup for a long time.

Here's the problem. Snider's 20 and he's not ready, even if he made his debut. His K%'s over his levels were as follows: 33.3%, 27.4%, 22.8%. 28.8%. He did cut his K rate as he moved up, but it's still very high. If he doesn't make enough contact, he won't be taking enough advantage of his profilific power potential. There are likely a ton of swings and misses, too, because in Hi-A, AAA and MLB his BB% never crossed 7.6%, though it was an impressive 12.3% in AA, where he had the most PA. On average, though, those low rates concern me, as he was at 9.5% in 2007. 4 times over the last two years, Snider has posted a BABIP of at least .371, and that seems hard to sustain at higher levels considering how often he swings and misses. By all accounts, Snider does not project to be a plus defender, which means his bat will need to carry him at either LF/RF or at DH.

Snider has plus, plus raw power and has shown it in game situations. He has performed admirably at levels where he is extremely young for the competition average. He is already at least an average major leaguer just based on his power tools. Snider should project more walks as teams work around his power, but I suspect he'll be seeing lots of breaking balls and pitches out of the zone until he learns how to control the strike zone better. His BABIP, and thus, his AVG, are going to drop some as he continues to play, which means his evolution in strike-zone discipline will determine how good of a hitter he will be. If he evolves into a more aware hitter, the sky's the limit with his power. Even if he doesn't, his power will stay play at the major league level. His floor is solid, his ceiling is enormous.

2. LHP Brett Cecil (B+) - Brett Cecil is a second player who really rose through an otherwise depleted Blue Jays system in 2008. Cecil is an intriguing combination of quality stuff and an ability to keep the ball on the ground, all from the left side. In 117 innings last season between Hi-A and AAA as a 21 year-old, Cecil allowed 100 hits, fanned 129 and and walked 41. His K% was around 26% and his GB% was around 63%. He walked around 8% of the batters he faced. Aside from his 10 inning stint at Hi-A, Cecil's BABIP was either .310 or .314, which is sustainable considering his repetoire. At all three levels, his FIP was 3.31 or under. He allowed just 6 HR's. He was certainly young for his level. There are some concerns that Cecil will have to move back to relief because he started there, and some concerns about his fastball, which sits between 88-92, though he does have a dominant slider. With better stuff, Cecil would an A-, but we'll have to see if he can continue to sustain this stuff.

3. CA J.P. Arencibia (B) - Arencibia is a pretty product for someone who played college baseball, but by all accounts he improved his defensive skills during the 2008 season. Arencibia was drafted as an athletic catcher with plus raw power. He split last season between Hi-A (.904 OPS) and AA (.798 OPS) as a 22 year old, so he was age appropriate at Hi-A and young for AA, though not extremely so. Focusing on the plusses first, Arencibia posted IsoP's of .245 at Hi-A and .214 at AA, both very impressive for a C. He struck out 17 and 20% of the time collectively, which is far from elite but more tolerable for a catcher with that kind of IsoP. His BABIP's were reasonable, at .311 and .344 respectively, particularly considering he's not a clogger on the bases. He made decent hard contact with an LD% of 15%, though that dropped from 19% in his debut, though his IsoP raised by almost .100, so he'll take the trade. He caught about 33% of the base-stealers, which will play at his position with his stack.

The big problem, for me, with Arencibia, is that he's walking between 4 and 6% of the time, and that's really not acceptable for any level. If he's going to walk at that small of an amount, he'll have to maintain his IsoP in the .200 range and he'll have to cut his K's. If he can walk a bit more, he has a bit more room for error. Still, as a catcher, his power is a real plus and can make him an asset.

4. 1B David Cooper (B) - Cooper was behind fellow draftees at first-base like Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak and Eric Hosmer, but he carries quite an interesting package, as well. He is very advanced in his approach at the plate and has at least plus raw power, though he is limited defensively at the position. Cooper moved from Lo-A to Hi-A in his debut, posting an OPS over .900 at the first two stops before finishing at an .808 OPS in Hi-A, all as a 21 year-old. Cooper featured a cumulative 9.8% BB% while posting a K% of just 15%. His IsoP was just .170, so that will need to improve, as will is his inconsistent LD%, which ranged from 19% to 8%. Still, he hit over .300 at all three stops, and twice over .340. His BABIP was at least .360 at all three levels and twice over .400, so that may be a bit high, but it's clear Cooper can hit. Whether the power comes along as expected is another story, but I like his ability to make contact (hopefully better contact in time), which gives him a chance to take advantage of his plus-power potential, even if he hasn't already.

5. 2B/3B Scott Campbell (B-) - An Australian signee by the Blue Jays, Campbell is old for his level, but it is considered acceptable for how raw he was when he came over. Campbell can play 2B/3B, but he's clearly suited for second considering his lack of power. He is a typical Blue Jays prospect, with great control of the strike zone but somewhat limited upside. He has never struck out more than he walked, last season posting a 66/63 BB/K ratio with an .825 OPS and a .125 IsoP, the best of his short three year career. His BABIP is at sustainable levels (.339 this year) and his LD% rose to a career best 21% last season, so he's definitely improving his good contact rates, which coincides with his improvement in his IsoP. His BB rate was 13.6%, and it's going to have to me, because he's not going to slug at a high level in the major leagues. What Campbell should do is put the ball in play and get on base at a useful rate as either a utility player or a second basemen. He may play at 3B if his defense is good enough.

6. 2B Bradley Emaus (B-) - Emaus is a similar player to Campbell but at a lower level, hence the lower grade. Like Campbell, he walked more than he struckout (60:56), but featued a BB% of 11.8%, as opposed to Campbell's 13.6%. Unlike Campbell, though, Emaus has the power projection that could make him an above average regular with his quality approach to hitting, and his ARL is solid, too. Sporting an IsoP of .163, he stands the opportunity to be a pretty good player, though again, just at 2B. Emaus ranks below Campbell simply because of his lack of a track record (Campbell's done it over three years) and his lower BB%, but the prospects are interchangeable and EMaus has more power potential.

7. LHP Bradley Mills (C+) - I think Mills is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors right now, hence my deviation from the normal grade on him. 

8. LHP Ricky Romero (C+) -

9. SS Justin Jackson (C+) -

10. 3B Kevin Ahrens (C+) -

Sleeper: RHP Mark Rzepczysnki 

Draft: OF Eric Thames

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects

This system is sick!

1. LHP David Price (A) - David Price is probably the #2 prospect between Matt Wieters heading into the 2009 season, though I'd have no problem switching the two. As evidenced in his brief major league experience (which featured him getting a save over the Red Sox in the 2008 ALCS Game 7), Price has absolutely electric stuff. He throws a hard fastball and has a nasty slider as well. He's got a good head on his shoulders and should break camp in the spot vacated by RHP Edwin Jackson, who was shipped to Detroit in a nice move for OF Matt Joyce. Price pitched at an unbelievable 4 levels last season, going from Hi-A all the way to the majors. He never had a K% under 20.7%, including a 21% K% in the majors coming out of the pen. He has generally featured strong control, with three of his four stops featuring a BB% below 7%. He even keeps the ball on the ground, never sporting a GB% below 52%. He gave up an uncanny 13% of Homers on flyballs in 2008 at AA, so that number was probably pretty unlucky and shouldn't continue.

There are a couple of concerns which makes me think he's behind Wieters. For someone of such acclaim, he allowed a fair amount of hits (92) relative to innings pitched (109). That's still very good, but if you've been reading my posts, I've illuminated a number of pitchers who have exhibited more dominance (Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman) in that category. Still, part of me chalks that up to moving four levels in one season and never getting truly acclimated. Price did not dominate AAA in any capacity before getting the call. He gave up four more hits than innings pitched and had a BB% of nearly 11 in 18 AAA innings. He was pretty unlucky there, sporting a .393 BABIP, so that may explain the hit percentage, but it sure looks to me like he wasn't quite ready to make the jump as a SP, even if he dominated coming out of the pen in the bigs. Price had a pretty lucky .238 BABIP in AA, so the amount of hits he should've allowed is somewhere in between his AA and AAA numbers. By all accounts, he was pretty lucky in AA and pretty unlucky in AAA, when looking at the FIP, though I mentioned the HR/AIR% being pretty unlucky as well in AA.

I have no doubt Price will be a dominant, #1 starter type in the near future at the major league level. I just think those that think it will happen next year might be in for a bit of a disappointment. There are enough red flags about his performance that make me think there might be rookie pitchers that perform better than him next season (Thomas Hanson, perhaps? Trevor Cahill, if he gets a call?) because Price hasn't had enough time in AAA to hone is arsenal. Still, Price is easily the best pitching prospect in the minors.

2. SS Tim Beckham (A-) - It's hard to put too much stock in Timothy Beckham's 2008 debut, as he was still very raw. He hit .243/.297/.345 with 43 K's and 13 BB in 177 AB's. He walked just 5.8% of the time and struck out 21.8% of the time (which is a decent number considering his age and suggests a lower rate in the future). He had a decent .102 IsoP for a young player, but like I said, I wouldn't put too much stock in any of those numbers right now. Beckham gets an A- grade because he was easily the best talent in the draft relative to position (Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez may be better hitters overall, but none can play the demanding position of SS). Beckham is regarded as having excellent bat speed, making solid contact despite some mechanical flaws that the Rays will have to iron out, and you can see that with his 15% LD% in his debut. Beckham is at least an average runner, if not a plus runner, and he stole 5 out of the 6 bases he attempted to steal in his debut. Despite being 6'2, by all accounts Beckham should be able to stay at SS and use his 5-tool talents at a premium position. Beckham does not have plus-plus raw power potential, but heas enough potential to be a 20-25 HR hitter with a well-rounded game. You can't expect too much from him too soon, but I would expect Beckham to follow in the foot-steps of B.J. Upton and Delmon Young and be advanced somewhat rapidly, despite his age. I'm not sure Beckham has the advanced approach of Upton or the natural hitting ability of Young, but I don't doubt he'll be a similarly useful player in the future.

3. CF Desmond Jennings (B+) - Jennings is a legitimate five-tool talent and a natural centerfielder, and as a result, one of my favorite prospects in baseball. The reason he is this low is because of repeated injury concerns. If Jennings can stay healthy, he will be an impact player at the MLB level. He only had 102 PA's this year due to injury, so I'm going to stray from talking about this season and just talk about his overall skillset. In three years in the minors, his BB% has risen from 8.9% to 13.1%, and his K rate has stayed right around 15%, which is excellent for a 21 year old. The injuries have limited his ability to have a strong ARL, but he'll be age appropriate for his level next season even if he opens at Hi-A. He has his LD% up to 17% and he seems to now how to use his speed, stealing 82 bases at a 79% efficiency. His power is still largely a source of projection, but I think it will come with the rising LD% and his approach at the plate. He's not going to hit 30-40 HR's, I'd wager, but he stands a chance to hit between 15-25 with a gaggle of other tools in the box. He seems to fit right in with the rest of the Tampa philosophy, and he'll make the bigs assuming he can stay healthy. A B+ is aggressive with Jennings because of the injury history, but I'm willing to bet he'll prove me right this upcoming season.

4. RHP Jeremy Hellickson (B) - A fourth rounder in the 2005 draft, Hellickson has demonstrated unreal control over the course of his career. He had 162 K's and 20 BB last season over 128 innings. He did allow 125 hits, but that may largely be as a result of his excellent control, being around the plate all of the time. He's small in stature, just 6-1, 185, and he was a bit lucky last season. In AA, when he allowed 64 hits in 76.1 innings, Hellickson had a pretty hard to maintain .291 BABIP, particularly as someone who is regularly around the plate. He walked just 1.7% of the batters he faced while fanning 28%. I think the amount of hits he gave up in AA, 84, over 75 innings, is a more reasonable expectation, though his BABIP may have been an unusually high .358, so his likelihood is somewhere in the middle, probably. If he can keep his hits allowed in line with the innings he pitches, he'll be a very effective starter. I've watched his pitching mechanics and he looks an awful lot like Brad Penny, but his stats remind me an awful lot of current Ray Andy Sonnanstine, though Hellickson may have better control and slightly better stuff (it's regarded as slightly above-average). 

The concern for Hellickson is his extreme flyball tendencies, posting GB% of 47 and 42 at his two levels last season. He's still young for his level, but that doesn't seem like it's going to improve with age. He will be victimized if he becomes more hittable, because as more contact is put on the ball they are more likely to head out of the park. As we saw last year, his HR/AIR% was between 6 and 12%, which means he's going to give up the longball, and that's alright if he's giving up solo-shots. The concern with Hellickson will come if he continues to be hit as hard as he was in AA (84 in 75 innings, remember) or if he loses some of his great control (it's sitting in the almost unreasonable 3% territory right now for BB%). The flyball tendency coupled with the smallish stature and non-elite offerings prevent him from being higher than a B right now, but another solid performance will move him up to a B+ or A-.

5. RHP Wade Davis (B) - Wade Davis is kind of a polarizing pitcher for me, because a lot of what he does has to be discounted because of his age relative to his league. His somewhat fringy numbers (only at times) can be mitigated because of how young he is for the level. I'm speaking mostly about his 2008 campaign at AA. After finishing up 2007 with fanning 81 batters in 80 innings and walking 30 at AA, Davis returned to AA in 2008 and pitched, well, worse. In 107 innings he allowed 104 hits and fanned just 81 batters, good for a K rate of 17.8%, down from 23.8% last season and way down from the 27.8% of his earlier pitching career. His walk rate has also continued to rise, from 6.9% in 2006 to 10.9% at the close of 2008. I suspect he may have been disinterested in repeating AA, as his numbers at AAA when he got a promotion improved a bit, allowing just 39 hits in 53 innings while fanning 55. Still, like I said, the walk rate continued to jump. Of similar concern is the fact that Davis is trending toward a flyball pitcher, closing 2008 with a GB% of just 45%. His combined FIP last season was 4.07. His K% did move back up to 24.8% in AAA, though, and again, he was just 22 in AAA last season. Still, another bad year will see him drop considerably on prospect rankings in my opinion, and I'm going to grade conservatively on him right now.

6. LHP Jacob McGee (B) - Jacob McGee is the second player on this list with serious injury concerns, and those are coupled by some concern that he may be better suited for the bullpen. McGee is going to be coming off of Tommy John surgery, so you have to temper your enthusiasm a bit, but I like what he's done in his past and Tommy John has been a reliable procedure for awhile. Before injury woes hurt his percentages in AA in 2008, McGee struck out an eye-popping 29% of the batters he faced, on average. Even with the need for the Tommy John in 2008, he still allowed 12 fewer hiters than innings pitched, so he does an excellent job of missing bats. He does have flyball tendencies, though, and he also has control issues, posting a walk rate of nearly 14% in 2008, which is why some have though he may be better as a swing and miss type reliever that can work the late innings. It certainly would reduce the stress on his arm. 

Still, though, McGee is an enormous upside arm and if he can come back from the injury, which seems likely, given a lot of patience, McGee has a floor of a dominant left-handed reliever and a ceiling of a front-end starter, assuming he can keep his control at a reasonable level and avoid injury. Neither of those things are constants, though, considering the injury, so I think it's likely he'll be shifted to the pen. Again, this grade is an aggressive one, and it won't be backed up for most of 2009, but the stuff is there.

7. RHP Nick Barnese (B) - Nick Barnese falls into the next stable of young arms, with Kyle Lobstein and Matt Moore, who should help to replenish the system depth behind the likes of Hellickson, McGee, Price and Davis. Barnese has solid power stuff and has posted two consectutive quality seasons. While he could not maintain his small sample size BB% of 2.4%, Barnese posted a quality 8.9% BB Rate in Lo-A, all the while improving an already impressive K rate from 24 to 31%. He only threw 66 innings, but he fanned 84 during that process while allowing just 52 hits. He had a solid GB% of 55% and his BABIP was at a sustainable level. As good as his ERA was, at 2.45, his FIP was even better, at 2.40. There is little not to like about Barnese, other than how far away he is from the majors. I'm going to aggressively slot him at a B, as I see nothing wrong with what he's doing right now.

8. LHP Matt Moore (B-) - I personally think Moore is a bit behind Barnese in terms of development, almost solely because he repeated rookie ball last season. I realize Tampa is deliberate with their prospects, but I have absolutely no idea why he didn't get a sniff of Lo-A as a 19 year old. He made progress within rookie ball, cutting his absurdly high BB% from 17% to 8.9% (perhaps the reason he stayed in rookie ball) and raising his K% from 31 to 34%. He upped his GB% from 42 to 61% and held his BABIP at .262, which might not be so unreasonable considering he was a second year player pitching against first year players. That won't keep at higher levels, but it's not unreasonable here. His FIP was 2.45, which was higher than his 1.66 ERA, but still impressive. He allowed just 7 XBH, including no HR's, in those 54 innings he pitched. 

Those numbers are great, but I can't go higher than a B- on a guy who is repeating rookie ball. Let's see if he can carry his improved control and GB% to higher levels. If he can, he'll move right up with Barnese, and he has an advantage on him, being left-handed.

9. SS Reid Brignac (B-) - Reid Brignac has been around forever, so excuse me if I'm sick of talking about him. To refresh, Brignac had an excellent debut season in 2004 and burst onto the prospect scene in 2006, when he hit .321/.376/.539 as a natural SS and a 20 year old in AA. He played all of 2007 in AA and struggled to a less stellar line, with a .761 OPS. Brignac posted his best BB% in his career of 9.2% and a wonderful K% of 15%, so he was certainly doing a better job of putting the bat on the ball. He was extraordinarily unlucky, however, with a BABIP in the .280's. His IsoP remained a constant at .172, so I wasn't terribly concerned and chalked the numbers up to bad luck, and remained pretty excited about him. He improved his fielding percentage, as well.

Something happened between making progress in 2007 and 2008. His LD% dropped from 19% in 2007 to 16% in 2008. His BB% dropped from 9.2% to 6.5%, and his K rate rose back to nearly 25%. I don't believe AAA pitching is THAT much more advanced than AA pitching, though he possibly struggled with breaking balls. He still kept a solid IsoP of .162, so it really looks like it was a matter of making solid contact with Brignac. His BABIP of .316 was still lower than career levels, so that may still rise. His fielding percentage also continued to improve at AAA, up to .970. 

I don't see Brignac walking a ton, but he's going to have to walk more than 6.5% and K less than 25% if he's going to make it in the big leagues. He's not giving himself a shot to use his raw power by missing so many balls. He'll still be just 23 in AAA next year, so there's plenty of time for him to figure it out, but if he has a repeat of 2008, his stock will drop even further from the successful 2006 and 2007 seasons. Make or break time for Brignac (gosh that sounds like a drink).

10. RHP Jeff Niemann (B-) - Jeff Niemann is another one of the more underappreciated prospects in the game. He is major league ready and will likely break camp with the Rays because he is out of options. He had a decent debut in Tampa Bay, striking out 18% of the batters he faced as a reliever while walking 10%. Niemann's never been young for a level, but he's always been around age appropriate, where he should be. He had a dominant run in 2008 in his second time at AAA Durham, walking 9.1% while fanning 23.4%. He posted a 48% GB rate, so he's close to dead even, and that will play well enough in the pen, where his quality stuff will be further enhanced. Oddly enough, though, Niemann's FIP in 2008 was 4.12, as opposed to his first stay in AAA, where it was 3.62. The reason for that rise was his BABIP, which was a largely unsustainable .249. He got pretty lucky, but I liked the improvement in his peripherals, raising his K% by 2% while raising the BB% by only 1%. He did allow 32 fewer hits than innings pitched last year, but like I said, you can thank the low BABIP for that. He's probably right around the same amount of hits and innings pitched, when you adjust for luck. Indeed, adjusting for luck suggests he should have had a BABIP of .312 and 120 hits allowed in 129 innings, so he was not as good as last year seemed, though he was better than 2007 seemed. 

Ultimately, I think Niemann could make it as a back-end starter with some dominant performances and some iffy outings where he is hurt by the long ball. With his power stuff, though, I think Niemann could make for a potentially dominant short-reliever, and I think that's where his future with the Rays is next year. He would probably be first in line to start if David Price falls short of making the squad or there is another injury.

Personal Favorite: CA John Jaso - With some apologies to backup catcher Shawn Riggans, John Jaso should absolutely be the backup catcher for the Rays next season. In his career in the minors, Jaso has exemplified what it means to control the strike zone, fanning 255 times while walking 251. At AA this season as a 24 year old (so he's a little old for the level, but as a catcher, that's probably OK...he was also inexplicably repeating the level after showing a mastery of it the previous season) Jaso walked 17.6% of the time while fanning just 9.4% of the time (62 BB, 33 K). He made solid contact, posting a 19% LD%. His SLG% did drop from .451 to .406 at the same level, but it seems clear that Jaso's power is more to the gaps than for the long ball, and it will be his on-base ability that ultimately carries him to the next level. In a stint at Durham to end the year (118 PA), Jaso continued to demonstrate excellent control of the strike zone (10BB/14K) and showed some added power, posting a .203 IsoP, up from .138 at AA. He was unlucky at both levels last year, posting BABIP's of .281 and .286 respectively, and yet still hitting .270 and .278. More hits will find the field in the future. Jaso's arm is not a strength, throwing out between 25-30% of the baserunners attempting to steal, but that will play enough if he can keep up that level of production. His bat, however, has the potential to be a real plus.

For what it's worth, CHONE projects Jaso at a .721 OPS, and Marcel at a .758 OPS, which is just about where guys like Saltalamacchia and Max Ramirez are projected. 

Sleeper: CA/DH Jacob Jefferies - Jacob Jefferies is a second draft pick by the Rays from 2008, out of UC Davis. Jefferies has a very interesting bat, with excellent control of the strike zone and very solid contact skills offensively. Unfortunately, that is where his offensive skills end, as he does not yet have any projectible power, though there are some that believe he still may develop enough to hit 10-15 Homers, which would sit very well with the skillset he currently already has. He's about an average runner and is very strong at spraying line drives. Indeed, in his debut, he had an LD% of an impressive 21% and a K% of just 8.3%, though he only walked 8% of the time as well. Still, those numbers indicate he's putting the ball in play a ton and he's making good contact when doing so. His .341 BABIP is sustainable with that approach, I would suspect, and his .118 IsoP is actually more than I expected when you consider his approach. He finished with a .315/.379/.433 line in Lo-A, and would project to be at least a useful backup catcher even if he didn't develop any more power, were it not for one concern: his catch and throw skills.

Jefferies arm is extremely fringy, though he has made progress on receiving and blocking balls. He played a good deal of DH in his debut and if he's relegated to a position besides CA/2B/3B, he might have a hard time making it as a big-leaguer unless he develops power. He retired only 4 of 23 attempting base-stealers last season, and that will not play as a catcher. Still, he's young and has time to improve, and his approach on the offensive end is impressive.

Sleeper 2: LHP Kyle Lobstein - Not surprisingly, Lobstein was yet another draft pick in my fantasy draft, so I'm pretty familiar with him. Lobstein was an early second round pick signed for mid-first round money, and he's got a very advanced approach to pitching as a high-schooler, drawing numerous comparisons to former Angel and Indian Chuck Finley. He's got smooth, repeatable mechanics and a solid repetoire. He was throwing his fastball between 88 and 90 MPH last season, but he's been known to have more in that department, and he should settle in at a low-90's point with an opportunity to dial it into the mid-90's. My interest in Lobstein stems from the development of his secondary pitches, however. He has a curveball that is almost a 12-6 and has good break, and should be a plus-plus offering at the major league level. He's also got a solid-average change-up which has a chance to get better as he uses it more. He has very strong control for a youngster and has good mechanics to boot. Lobstein is athletic and played basketball as well in high school, so he's surprisingly raw considering the scouting report I just provided. As he pitches more, he should move onto this list quite easily, particularly with the likely graduation of Price and Niemann to begin the season.

Others maintaining prospect status of use are CF Fernando Perez, OF Reid Fronk, OF Justin Ruggiano and OF Ty Morrison, along with P Heath Rollins and P Mitch Talbot

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects

First of all, kudos to the Orioles for locking up one of the most underrated players in baseball, OF Nick Markakis, to a 6/66M contract. It bought out three years of free-agency, and Markakis looks like a .300/.400/.500 hitter with elite defense. Great sign.

1. CA Matt Wieters (A) - Matt Wieters is the 1A to David Price's 1, and might be ahead of him a bit due to position, though both are extremely valuable. Statistically, Wieters was a beast. Between Hi-A and AA, Wieters walked 82 times and fanned just 76 times, all the while mashing 29 Homers. He hit a remarkable .355 between the two levels and and finished with nearly a .600 SLG%. He actually cut his K rate by 5% in AA, and he was young for the level. He made good contact, posting LD rates of 16 and 18%, respectively. It's possible a BABIP of .383 might be unsustainable in the bigs, but that's probably nitpicking. He threw out 37 of 94 basestealers, which is a number that the Orioles will happily live with. The Orioles just signed Gregg Zaun to a major league contract after unloading Ramon Hernandez, and do have Guillermo Quiroz, Chad Moeller and some other depth in the minors, so Wieters may not open with the club, but it's really only a matter of time. Bill James thinks that Wieters would post a .926 OPS if he played in the majors as a 23 year old. Disgusting. CHONE is a little more conservative, suggesting a .791 OPS, but that would still be incredible. Between Soto last year and Wieters this year, what a crop, though Wieters is a much better prospect long-term than Soto.

2. RHP Chris Tillman (A-) - I'm on of the bigger Erik Bedard fans on this planet, and think he's nothing short of elite when he's healthy, but Tillman is the third part of the five pieces that the O's got for Bedard (the others are CF Adam Jones, CL George Sherill, RHP Kam Mickolio and LHP Tony Butler). At least four of those five, and maybe all five, are going to have an impact on the Orioles within the next two years. That is larceny. Statisically, Tillman is very impressive, and is just 20 at AA, so the ARL is fantastic. He struckout 154 batters in 135 innings last season and allowed just 115 hits, leading to a 26.6% K%. He does have some red flags that preclude him from an A, however, and the main one is that he is a flyball pitcher, with a GB% of just 40% last season. He also walked 11.2% of the batters he faced, though that concerns me less considering his age and level. Even with the longball though, he has a plus arsenal with a hard fastball and a very good curveball, though he is still working on developing a third pitch, whether it be a splitter or a change. Tillman's got a projectible build at 6-5, 200 pounds and he's exceeded pre-draft expectations a bit. He's got front-line stuff for sure, and if he can keep the ball down in the zone he'll be an ace.

3. LHP Brian Matusz (B+) - Brian Matusz was the consensus top pitcher in the 2008 MLB Draft, though there was some question about how strong he was as that top pitcher. Matusz is an interesting lefty who can touch 94-95 with his fastball and who has plus secondary stuff, sporting excellent command with both his slider and his change-up. He can use a slider which works as a cutter to back players off of the plate, as well. He has a nice build at 6'5 and he has room to grow. There are some concerns about his fastball not being as high as it needs to be, but with the secondary stuff, it should work either way. Matusz seems like a very safe selection and a near sure-bet to make it to the Orioles rotation within a few years. I did not pitch in the minors last season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him debut at A or A+ if the scouting reports support it.

4. RHP Jake Arrieta (B) - Jake Arrieta is a smidge behind Tillman, but represents the third consecutive starter on this list with better than average stuff. Arrieta is two yeas older than Tillman and only in Hi-A, so he doesn't have the production at the age of Tillman, but make no mistake, Arrieta is still age appropriate for this level of competition. He struck out about 26% of the batters he faced last season and had a GB% of nearly 50%. He also struggled with walks, however, walking 11% of the batters he faced without the relative rawness of Tillman. His FIP was 3.65, so it was higher than his 2.83 ERA, but still acceptable. Arrieta has a low to mid-90's fastball with a very good slider, when working, and a developing change up. Moreover, he allowed just 79 hits in 113 innings in Hi-A, which allowed for his WHIP to stay at an above average level, even in light of the 51 walks. I'm a bit more concerned about Arrieta's control than I am about Tillman's, because Arrieta his older than Tillman by two years and at a lower level. I like Arrieta's potential to have at least middle of the rotation upside, if not better, but he'll absolutely have to throw more strikes in the future, or continue allowing so few hits (very unlikely) in order to be truly successful. Still, another intriguing arm to slot behind Guthrie, Matusz and Tillman.

5. OF Nolan Reimold (B) - Nolan Reimold should already be in the big leagues playing with the Orioles based on his age and current production, but the O's have been oddly patient with him. Reimold is a career .278/.375/.507 hitter in the minors, so he's more than proven his readiness based on those numbers. Injuries may have slowed him down a bit, but at 25, he needs to make it pretty soon and I'd be surprised if he didn't make his debut next season at some point, presuming his health holds up. He posted a .284/.367/.501 line last season with 25 homers and 63 walks. He is strictly a corner outfielder with his toolbox, but his skillset should hold up fairly well at that position. His BB% was a very impressive 10.8% and his K rate was an equally impressive 14%. His IsoP was a perfectly acceptable .214, as well. I think Reimold may have been a little bit unlucky, as well, as his BABIP was just .14 points higher than his AVG (.300 to .286). Either quite a few of his hits were home runs (possible, considering his 25 homers, but not likely), or a lot of the balls he was putting in play found gloves at a higher rate than most others (more likely). Part of the ball finding more gloves likely has to do with Reimold's low LD% (just 13%) and his GB% (37%). It sounds like he was hitting a lot of lazy fly balls which are easier to get under and get outs from.

In my opinion, Reimold is ready to be an effective big league OF at a corner position, and I do believe he is more than just a fourth outfielder. To be successful in the bigs he'll have to make more solid contact, but it's evident with his K and BB% that he's making plenty of contact. His GB% may have been a bit of a fluke, and his BABIP will surely go up if he hits .286 again, even with the same LD% and GB%, so his numbers should be sustainable at higher levels. He'll make a nice LF with Jones in CF and Markakis in RF, though Felix Pie and his defense may have something to say about that in 2009.

6. RHP Brandon Erbe (B-) - Brandon Erbe is riding a bit of a prospect rollercoaster, but it is finally on the upswing after a couple years of not redeeming his high esteem. Erbe was repeating Hi-A but he was also young for the level, at just 20. He's clearly behind the three pitchers listed ahead of him, but Erbe has a chance to make the rotation pretty potent at the back end. Statistically, he cut his BB% from 11.4% to 8% last season, and he raised his K% from 20.4% to 24%, closer to the rest of his career profile. He allowed 112 H over 140 innings, as opposed to the 127 H he allowed in 119 innings last season. So why the difference in performance? It's hard to say. 

Let's look at the red flags here, and the reasons I won't go higher on Erbe than a B-. His FIP was 4.45 this season, and his ERA was 4.48, despite the good peripherals. His BABIP was an absolutely unsustainable .260, particularly when you look at his career marks and MLB league averages. His GB% dipped from 48 to 42%, and he allowed 20 HR's, sporting a 9% HR/Air ratio. I want to see an improvement in GB% and a normalized BABIP before I start moving Erbe into the class of Arrieta.

Erbe does throw hard and he is regarded as someone with good stuff and good control, it's not impossible that he could maintain solid numbers, but let's see how things normalize first.

7. RHP David Hernandez (B-) - I think David Hernandez is possibly if not probably one of the most underrated hurlers in the minor leagues. He flashes excellent stuff from the right side, though he's a bit on the short side at just 6'2, 180. He is a strikeout machine, sporting strikeout percentages of 24, 27 and 27.7% over his minor league career, which is a trend that will make prospect evaluators pretty happy. Folks are concerned with his walks, much like with Arrieta, as he moved from a 7.4% walk rate in 2007 to an 11% BB rate in 2008, this after posting an 11% BB rate in 2006. He doesn't have Arrieta's physical projection or Tillman's ARL, however, so the walks are more of a knock on Hernandez than the others. He doesn't have that kind of room for error. He is also bordering on an extreme flyball pitcher, as his GB% was just 38% last year, and it's never been higher. He allowed 39 few hits than innings pitched this season, however, and his BABIP was a bit better at .300, though still lower than career marks, so we're likely to see some regression in that regard. He's also 23 in AA, so he is, at best, age appropriate for his league. His FIP of 3.48 suggests a pretty solid pitcher, but it's hard to imagine that more of the flyballs he gives up aren't going to go out of the park (a seemingly low number of 4% went out last season). Still, even if Hernandez cannot get the control down or keep the balls from flying out at higher levels, he at least as a role as a reliever that can miss bats from the right side (and that might help to preserve his smaller stature, to boot). 

8. 1B Brandon Snyder (B-) - Brandon Snyder was a very high draft pick of the Orioles a couple of years ago and was widely considered to be nearing bust status before a pretty prominent return to form. He was drafted as a catcher and that did not work out, but he seems to be fitting in as a power hitting first baseman who has real struggles on the defensive side of the ball, and thus might be relegated to DH. As a 21 year old in Hi-A (so still age appropriate for the level, if not a little young), Snyder posted an .840 OPS with a lot of reasons for encouragement. He made decent contact, cutting his K% from 24% to 17%, and from 34% to 17% over two years. His BB% was still an abysmal 6.1%, down from a sorry 8.8% of 2007, though up from the 5.7% he had in 2006. He continued his trend from 2007 of making good, solid contact, keeping his LD% at 17% after moving it up to 21% in 2007. He posted a .313 AVG with a somewhat unsustainable .362 BABIP, particularly when you consider his speed limitations. He raised his IsoP from .136 to .172, and with his build and projection, that number should continue to go up, which is largely why he has received a B- grade. With continued improvement in dropping his K% and raising his IsoP while maintaining a good average, Snyder could blossom into a pretty good 1B/DH prospect. The Orioles will take this over the potential bust he was two years ago.  

I would like to see him be a bit more patient. He's making good contact and is really big, but 6.1% BB rate will not play well in the majors, even if he's striking out less.

9. 3B Bill Rowell (C+) - Similar to Snyder, Rowell has absolutely enormous potential with little results to show for it, especially recently. He's also been reported to have some attitude issues. His OPS has been dropping consistently, from .932 as a rookie all the way to .680 last season. Rowell's been on my radar for awhile because he was one of five players over the last four years to post an OPS over .700 as an 18 year old or younger in A Ball. That's an extremely impressive accomplishment, so his OPS drop didn't concern me last year, but the further drop concerns me this year, particularly when I hear about the attitude problems. Still, his upside his enormous. Writing off his unsustainable 2006 debut numbers (.430 BABIP, 22-27% LD%), Rowell raised his LD% from 12 to 14% in 2008, which is a positive sign. He also saw a .32 point dip in his BABIP, though probably to the more sustainable number of .332. His BB% rose from 7.9% to 8.8%, and his K% dropped from 26.9% to 25.4%, so there is progress being made, albeit small. His already falling IsoP dropped from .153 to .121, and that's just not going to cut it for the power hitter that Rowell was billed to be coming out of high school. For a guy without a ton of speed, a GB% of 62% seems awfully high, and may be the reason for the falling IsoP. He's not getting a ton of hits anyway, hitting just .251, but when he does get hits, there's an awful lot of singles there, what with a SLG% of just .372 and that small IsoP. He improved his fielding percentage at 3B up to 92.5%, much better than the 88.8% of 2007. 

Rowell's got plenty of time. He didn't turn 20 until after the season and he'll be 20 throughout most of next season, either repeating Hi-A or at AA. I wouldn't be too worried about Rowell unless he flops again next year, but he is going to have to hit at some point. He needs to continue to restore his LD% and work on hitting the ball in the air more, which should take advantage of his untapped power potential. 

Of some concern is the fact that Frederick was a pretty significant hitters park last season, and of no help to Rowell's declining numbers. He's a guy to watch in 2009, both good and bad.

10. LHP Zach Britton (C+) - Zach Britton doesn't have nearly the panache of the other arms on this list, but what he does have his a modicum of consistency and success in a world of mostly projection. Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a GB% of 68%, and that will bode well for him as he moves up to higher levels. I would think he was a bit unlucky, allowing 6% of the flyballs he gives up to be homers, but he's not giving up a ton of flyballs, so it's not a huge concern. While he maintained his BB% of around 8%, Britton saw his K% rise from 13.2% in 2007 to almost 19% in 2008, a huge step forward for the lefty sinkerballer. Impressively, despite being a sinkerballer, Britton is not a finesse pitcher, hitting the low 90's with consistency and occasionally dialing it up as high as the mid-90's, which marks the second impressive hard-throwing lefty in the O's top 10 (they also have flamethrowing lefty Tony Butler, who has battled numerous injury woes). 

I've got some concerns about Britton on an otherwise impressive resume. His BABIP is absolutely unsustainable, at .250, particularly as a GB pitcher. He's going to allow a low of balls in play striking out just 114 in 147 innings, and there's no way that only 25% of those balls are going to find holes. His 117 hits in 147 innings is an entirely unrealistic expectation for him, and I'd expect an ideal scenario would see his hits and innings about the same. His FIP is a bit of a reflection of that, at 3.92, as opposed to his ERA of 3.12. It could be a reflection of his stuff, but with that kind of limiting though impressive K%, Britton won't be controlling hitters that well as he moves up. Still, a lefty with his skillset would be useful at the back-end of the rotation, and I think Britton has a good shot of making it there.

Sleeper: RHP Robert Bundy - Robert Bundy was the Orioles sixth round pick in the 2008 draft and has excellent projection and potential. Bundy is a big guy, at 6'2, 215, and he's projected to get bigger. That listed-weight may be on the conservative side. He barely played in 2008, but he received well over slot bonus to sign as a sixth rounder, and was widely considered as a first round prospect until he tore his ACL playing basketball as a senior and did not have the velocity that he normally did. Apparently, that velocity has returned, and a number of experts, including Kevin Goldstein, predict that his mid-90's heater may actually gain more velocity as time goes on. What impresses me with Bundy, however, is that he developed his secondary pitches as a result of being injured his senior year and not having the velocity one would expect. He also has excellent control, judging by his 6 BB in 54 innings as a HS senior, though it's hard to base anything on that considering he was facing pretty poor competition. 

I think Bundy has the chance to soar up prospect charts as long as his great control doesn't lead to repeated longballs. There have been reports that Bundy has a hard time not throwing strikes leading to excessive hittability, so we'll have to see how that translates.

Sleeper 2: 2B/OF L.J. Hoes- L.J. Hoes is a second 2008 draftee that had an immediate impact in his debut. He was taking 81st overall in the 2008 draft and has a very interesting combination of speed and advancement at the plate. He's never going to hit for much power, but he stole 10 bases and was caught zero times in his debut. Most interestingly, Hoes walked 30 times in 159 AB's and fanned just 22 times, demonstrating that advanced approach at the plate. He was initially drafted as an OF, but the Orioles saw something in him that suggested he could man second base, though I'm not sure how likely that is. He struggled there defensively last season, and also struggled against LHP, though he won't face them nearly as much. If he continues to post impressive OBP's and steals bases, his two tools will play, though he needs to be able to make it at either 2B or CF for that to happen.

Potential Major League Contributors next season: RHP Bradley Bergesen (Does not walk or strike anyone out, does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and could be useful in a swingman capatcity), LHP Troy Patton (Coming off of a significant injury, was one of the best prospects the Astros had and he could be able to make a dent in the Oriole rotation with a strong spring), RHP Kam Mickolio (Should work as a RH Middle Relief option, came over in the Bedard deal), LHP Wilfredo Perez (Really good stuff as a power lefty reliever)

Others: 3B Tyler Henson, RHP Pedro Beato, RHP Chorye Spoone (injury woes), OF Xavier Avery

New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

1. DH Jesus Montero (A-) - Jesus Montero is an extremely impressive prospect and the only reason he's not receiving A- grades from other publications is because of a concern over the position he'll play. I think there is some fear that Montero will turn into a Max Ramirez type of player and start to hear some sneaking suspicions of the AAAA label, but Ramirez doesn't deserve those, and neither does Montero. As an 18 year old in A Ball facing pitchers two-three years older than him, Montero was extremely successful, posting a .326 average and a .491 SLG%. His K% was a very exciting 14.6%, and that should find potential to drop even further, and I'm really impressed by that number as an 18 year old. While Angel Villalona is younger than Montero as a 17 year old in A Ball, he struck out 25.8% of the time, so that's a pretty impressive number. You cannot scoff at the 17 home runs, either.

There are a few concerns, but they should be alleviated in time. Montero did not walk very much, posting a 6.5% BB rate. Still, his BABIP was a reasonable level considering his average, though possibly unsustainable at .358, and his LD% rose from 12% last year to 18% this season. He is WAY too big for catcher, and anyone still calling him a catcher have absolutely lost their mind. As an 18 year old, he's a monstrous 6'4, 225 pounds. He should fill out even more as time goes on, so he's probably a 1B/DH type, but his bat will more than play at either spot. In checking Montero's park effects, it may have helped his homers, but that's about it. When neutralizing for luck, Montero's stats remain very solid. I think Montero will be a top 15 prospect by next season and he is EASILY the best prospect in the system.

2. RHP Dellin Betances (B) - Betances has absolutely unbelievable stuff, but he has yet to put it together. His upside earns him this grade, as he is right up there with Montero in terms of impact ability, though he has proven less to this point. Injuries have seriously hurt his development, but he made an appearance in A Ball this year as a 20 year old, which means he's still Age Appropriate. He struckout 27.7% of the batters he faced in A Ball, walking 11.9% of them. His walk total is high but it might be a product of his lack of development, or it could be a product of his strikeouts, as he's getting a lot of people to chase. He allowed just 87 hits in 115.2 innings, though I have some reservations with his GB%, which was at 43%. His FIP was also 4.07, half a run higher than his ERA of 3.62. Still, his K/9 was well over 9, so there's a lot to like here. He'll need to work on keeping more balls on the ground if he wants to really improve, and perhaps cutting his BB rate as well, but there's a lot to like here.

In terms of scouting report, Betances throws the ball between 93-97 MPH and can often dial up for more. Betances also has a developing knuckle curveball and a raw changeup, and both are going to need to come on for him to get the most out of his stuff. Worst case, he could be a flame-thrower out of the pen, though that's tough with his somewhat questionable control. He may develop control issues naturally because he is huge (6'9). Give him time and that should work itself out.

3. CF Austin Jackson (B) - Austin Jackson is one of the more overrated prospects in the minors, in my opinion, and it's typical of the big market team (The Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury was similarly overrated). First and foremost, Jackson has plus-speed, and that makes him a threat to steal bases and to handle CF defensively. I am not concerned about his defense, however, as I included Che-Hsuan Lin and Ryan Kalish highly, but rather his ranking as a B prospect, which means that he is to have legitimate offensive potential. I'm just not sure that he does. After cutting his K% from 22 to 16% in a stint at A+, he raised it back up to 19% in his AA stint this year, though he was just 21 for that stint. Jackson is willing to take a walk, as evidenced by the 55 he took this year in 581 PA, which is what you'd like to see from a younger player at a higher level. You may see his strikeouts drop as he becomes more age appropriate for the level, but he still strikes me as being very raw in that regard.

The bigger concern for me is Jackson's lack of power. He has 26 career HR's in 1600 PA, which is pretty ugly for a potential 5-tool OF. Again, he's young for his level so that power may come, but those suggesting A- or B+ grades for Jackson seem a bit ahead of themselves. Jackson's stolen base numbers are also regressing, as he went from 37 two years ago to just 19 this year. His slugging percentage dropped from a cumulative .476 last season to just .419 this season. It appears to be that he is regressing but I do not want to jump ship because I'd like to see how he matures in other aspects of his game. He still hit .284 and posted a .354 OBP, both very impressive for a 21 year old in AA. In order to receive an elite ranking this year, though, he needed to continue his power production.

It seems to me that Jackson could be at risk of trending downward, but it wouldn't surprise at all if Jackson improves, particularly if the Yankees choose to start him at AA again, which is what I would do. He needs to develop more offensively before the Yankees think about calling him up. I'd also like to see him raise his LD% a bit, up from the 13% he had this year (which was up from the 11% he had last year).

4. RHP Andrew Brackman (B-) - I personally remember Andrew Brackman as a freshman backing up the stable of NC State big guys (including Ben McAuley), but he chose to sign with the Yankees and pursue a pitching career. Anyhow, Brackman has pitched exactly 2.1 innings of winter ball in his career, and yet I think he's the fourth best prospect in a pretty limited Yankee system. He's had all kinds of injury concerns, and the Yankees drafted him knowing that he would need Tommy John surgery. Before Brackman had to have the surgery, there was some question whether Brackman or Price would be the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. Brackman has a devastating curveball and a wicked fastball when healthy with a developing change-up that has a chance to be a third plus-offering. He is also enormous, at 6'10 and 240-70 pounds, depending on which database you take a look at. He's had injury concerns moving back to 2005, but he's extremely athletic and has shown a willingness to try and get himself healthy. If he can do that, watch out, this player could sore up the charts. He's got more upside than even Montero, and I like Montero a lot, so that's saying something. He pitched a bit in winter-ball in 2008, but he'll have a clean slate as a 23 year old in 2009 and he could be a great one if he can work it out.

5. CA Austin Romine (B-) - Romine is an interesting case of performance and projection meshing at a difficult position. By all accounts, Romine has a much better chance to stick at catcher, which is good, because his bat might not play at another position. In Romine's first exposure to minor league baseball, he hit an even .300 with a .344 OBP and a .435 SLG%. Interestingly, though, that first exposure came in A-Ball, which is pretty impressive for a 19-year old. He walked just 5.7% of his plate appearances, hence the low OBP relative to the BA, but he also struck out an impressive 12.4% of the times, meaning he was generally making contact, and good contact at that, with an LD% of 17%. He also hit 10 homers in 403 AB's, and considering his age for the level, that number might improve as well. Romine's biggest strength might be his arm, though, as he is considered to be an 80 on the 20-80 time in terms of his catch and release skills. He's a little raw behind the plate otherwise but should be able to stick there. He's projected to have at least average power, and we've already seen his good contact skills.

In my opinion, Romine is the exact type of player you'd like behind the plate as a big league club. He's athletic, he has the potential to put the ball in play and hit double-digit home runs, and he's going to cut down numerous runners with that arm. He's not flashy, but at a position where you'd have to pay a ton for Romine's type as a FA, I'd bet the Yankees are excited about his potential.

6. LHP Jairo Heredia (B-) - Jairo Heredia is a fairly intriguing prospect because of the differing opinion on his stuff. I've read some Yankee fans who suggest Heredia is a "meh" pitcher without plus stuff and a pitcher that is getting by with acumen. Others suggest Heredia has enough stuff to get by and very advanced feel for pitching, so we'll see which side is correct. Heredia is left-handed, keeps the ball on the ground (57%), strikes out batters (21.9%) and doesn't a decent, but not outstanding job with walks (9%). He was another 18 year-old in A Ball, so he is not yet age appropriate for his level and has room for growth. He has a little bit more leeway as a lefty who can get ground ball outs, though I am concerned with his FIP, which is 4.07, as opposed to his ERA, which is 3.25. His BABIP seems a reasonable .312, though. He allowed 3 less hits (99) than innings pitched (102.1). At least some of his many scouting reports suggest he has a fastball in the mid 90's coupled with a plus-curve and a developing change which could be a third-plus pitch, so there's reason to think he's got some potential to miss bats at higher levels. 2009 will be critical in Heredia establishing himself as a top 100 type prospect. He could just as easily fall of the radar if his stuff isn't up to par.

7. RHP Zach McAllister (B-) - McAllister is a heavy ground ball pitcher that has interesting stuff and stands to be an inning eater at the professional level. Indeed, McAllister combined for a 55.5% GB ratio between A and Hi-A as a 20 year old, so he's got a good ARL as well. He gets the majority of his outs on the ground, As he had a 1.48 GO/AO in his stint last season. That number will have to improve further as he moves up, because his K's per inning last year were not particularly impressive. He struckout just 115 in 151 innings, but amazingly, he walked just 21, which is good for a 3.4% BB rate. I would wager to guess that the reason McAllister's not getting even more ground ball outs is because so many balls are being put into play. He may have people jumping on earlier pitches because they know they're not getting a walk, so they're trying to elevate on pitches that are up in the zone. He only gave up 9 HR's, which is a bit of a surprise when you consider the GO/AO ratio isn't completely dominant, so that number should rise. His BABIP was a bit low (around .300) considering he doesn't strike a lot of players out, which indicates he was a little lucky and is supported by his FIP of nearly a run and a half higher at Hi-A (1.83 to 3.26).

In the end, I think McAllister is interesting because of his age at this level, his advanced understanding of pitching down in the zone, and his prominent control. If he doesn't raise his GO/AO ratio, however, he's going to start giving up more runs and that ERA is going to soar. I also question whether he's really the type of pitcher who's going to allow 19 less hits than innings pitched as he moves up in the minors. Still, he's got a package more interesting than any other Yankee at this point.

8. RHP Mark Melancon (C+) - Melancon is here because he is a relief pitcher that is close to the majors, but there's a big dropoff in where I consider McAllister and where I consider Melancon, nevermind the slight drop in grade. For a reliever, Melancon gets more outs on the ground than in the air, so that's valuable, particularly if he's going to pitch in the late innings. He's 23 and moved through three levels last season, so I should be able to sustain that as he moves further. He kept his WHIP under one (69 H and 22 BB in 95 IP) and he did strikeout 89 in 95 innings. My problem with Melancon is that I want my natural RP (ie, the ones that aren't starters that turn into relievers because they couldn't make it as starters) to absolutely dominate at the lower levels, and while he was effective, he was not dominant. He should have more strikeouts than he did with the way he's being hyped, and that troubles me. The hits numbers are impressive, and I like the groundball rate, but I'm interested to see how he'll translate to the majors and if he'll miss as many bats effectively. He really needs to maintain that K rate to be a good reliever, and I'd feel much more comfortable if there was a bit more room for error in that department.

9. LHP Phil Coke (C+) - Phil Coke is almost 27 years old and yet he is the #9 prospect in the Yankees system. He had an extremely strong debut, allowing just 2 BB while fanning 14 in 14 innings as a Yankee. He's almost a sure bet to open next season with the big club as the second lefty out of the pen with Damaso Marte. Coke's had some injury concerns so the age concerns me less, as he's about equally developed as younger players are. Coke doesn't BB anyone (about 6%) and struck out a lot of batters last season (about 26%). The knock on Coke, besides his age and it's addictive properties (heh, I'm funny), is that he does not really have a plus arsenal of pitches to support is great success last season. Even in light of that, though, a lot of prospects on list will fade out before they get even close to being a useful relief pitcher, so the Yankees will take it.

10. RHP Alfredo Aceves (C+) - Alfredo Aceves is another almost 27 year-old prospect that got some late inning time with the Yankees after signing as a NDFA before the 2008 season. Aceves had a decent debut in 2008 with the big club, going 30 innings while allowing 25 hits, walking 10 and fanning 16. The K/BB ratio is an uninspiring 1.6, but the 5 fewer hits than innings pitched are fairly impressive. Of concern is the FIP, which was 4.83, as opposed to his 2.40 ERA. He had a very unsustainable .233 BABIP which may have been the reason for that success. He's got four league average pitches and should be at least marginally useful as either a swing-man or back of the rotation starter. His K% was around 20% in the minors and his BB% was around 6%, so he should improve on his peripheral numbers next season, but he will regress because of that FIP. He had freakishly low BABIP's at all of his levels last season, so I think a good deal of his performance may be luck and he is due to regress.

With that said, Aceves does have good control and the ability to miss bats, at least in the minors, so some regression might still make him a league average starting pitcher, and in a system bereft of concrete talent, that's got some value. I'd suggest Aceves work on keeping the ball low in the zone (GB% was well below 50% throughout the minors) and try to keep his control at the levels he had it in the minors. I don't think his stuff will allow for a high K rate in the bigs, so he's going to have to learn how keep the ball in the park to be successful.

Sleeper Alert: RHP Brett Marshall - Brett Marshall is one of my favorite Yankees prospects, largely because he was drafted in my Fantasy Dynasty League this offseason with a late pick. Marshall has plenty of hard offerings (96 MPH 4-Seamer, 92 MPH 2-Seamer with good movement, 86-88 MPH hard slider) but he has not developed a secondary pitch, whether a curve or change, that will allow for major league success at this point. He was a 6th round pick in the 2008 draft that signed for well over slot-bonus (825,000) and has the best shot of being a front-end starter of the pitchers the Yankees drafted this time around. He's got some mechanical problems, including the dreaded "Inverted-W" which could lead to injury, and he's also very raw. He barely pitched in high school, and at 6' even, he does not have the ideal pitchers body. I like the pick because I think, at worst, Marshall is a very useful back of the bullpen type unless he blows out his arm and fades out completely. If he can develop smoother mechanics and a decent amount of secondary stuff to handle his hard-arsenal, he could be a front-end prospect. Between his junior and senior years of high school, he gained 10 MPH on his fastball, so you can see how much this player has grown very recently.

Also worth noting are RHP Jeremy Bleich, RHP Humberto Sanchez, RHP Alan Horne, and youngsters LHP Wilkins De La Rosa and RHP Areudys Vizcaino.